Welcome to the Friday Five, bye-week edition!
Every week during the NFL regular season, I’ve dropped five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to the Pats’ next kickoff.
Since the Patriots are off this Sunday, we’ve doubled the fun and pushed this column back two days.
Ready, set, football.
1. The Pats’ most dangerous playoff opponent is …
Buffalo, but it’s close.
The Texans’ defense is the most fearsome unit — offense, defense or special teams — of any in the AFC. Houston ranks first in points allowed and defensive EPA (Expected Points Added). The Texans are second by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA on defense, and they are are littered with Pro Bowl-caliber talents on both sides of the ball.
Yet I can’t slot them ahead of the Bills. It comes down to this: if you’re the Patriots, do you have more confidence in Drake Maye leading a game-winning final drive versus the Texans defense or your defense stopping Josh Allen in the same scenario? I’m taking Maye.
Allen is a wrecking ball, a force and the reigning MVP for two more months. His box-score stats belie what’s been a better season on tape, especially considering his lack of weapons and, at times, poor luck with turnovers. Buffalo has problems, sure. But I don’t expect the Patriots to be able to exploit their run defense, which means any matchup should be in a shootout if/when the Bills come to Foxboro.
There are few quarterbacks I would fear in a shoot-out quite like Allen, especially after he’s carried Buffalo to the divisional round five years running.
2. Least dangerous playoff opponent: Jacksonville
Tony Boselli, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith and Mark Brunell aren’t walking through that door. Even if they were, the Pats might beat them anyway.
You think Trevor Lawrence is going to win a playoff game in Foxboro? C’mon.
Of note: the Steelers, whose playoff odds are 34%, according to ESPN, have been excluded. The Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs and Texans all boast better quarterbacks, while the Colts own a better, more talented roster than Jacksonville, giving them an edge here among AFC contenders.
3. Rivalry brewing
Back to the Bills.
The Pats have not had a true rival since Peyton Manning retired, a sad drought preceded by salty stretches of real rivalry. Starting in 2000, the Steelers, Jets, Colts, Ravens, Broncos all took turns poking the bear that was the dynasty-era Patriots, and, occasionally, drew blood. For a time, with each of those franchises, competitive hate flowed both ways.
That feels like eons ago. But mark it down: the next rivalry is building.
The Patriots are coming for the AFC East crown, which has belonged to the Bills since 2020. The year before, the Pats held off Allen in a primetime, late-December win to clinch what remains their most recent division title. Allen was only a second-year player then, but veterans like Matthew Slater admitted then they could hear Buffalo’s footsteps coming because of their quarterback’s development, sharp coaching and a well-rounded roster.
Sound familiar?
The Pats have closed the gap this year behind Maye and Mike Vrabel, and are positioned to battle the Bills for years to come. Maye and Allen may be friendly on a personal level, but playing twice a year will breed the type of familiarity that should breed contempt for their teams.
Ding, ding.
4. Enough schedule talk
The Patriots’ schedule is what it is.
It’s been a known cakewalk for months. One of the easiest in the modern era. The schedule does not need to be cited, emphasized or excused anymore because ultimately it’s just context — and important context, at that — but nothing more.
The driving forces behind the Patriots’ 10-game win streak and 11-2 record are the Patriots themselves. Period. Good players, great coaching and an organizational edge not known here for more than a half-decade. The simplest way to understand how the schedule matters is to think of the season as a test drive.
A team’s schedule shapes the road. Is it straight and flat? Or narrow, craggy and full of danger? Either way, someone has to gas up the car, drive it, navigate every turn and keep the car from crashing. The best playoff teams are often the ones with the best drivers (read: quarterbacks) and those who finish the regular season with the fewest scratches and dents (read: healthiest rosters).
Anyway, dents are coming for the Patriots next year when their road will get much rockier, and all of this schedule conversation will inevitably subside. Here’s why.
Behold, the Patriots’ 2026 opponents at home: Bills, Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets and an AFC North team TBD.
And on the road: Bills, Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, an AFC South team and NFC West team both TBD.
Assuming the Patriots finish in first place, their next schedule could include up to 11 games versus 2025 playoff teams, and should feature at least eight. That’s because the NFL’s scheduling formula is working exactly as it was intended. The Patriots were a last-place team last year and faced a cushy, last-place schedule this season.
Next year, it will be a winding, dangerous road back to the playoffs.
5. The reasons to run
Counting on the Patriots’ run game as an efficient, reliable part of their offense feels like a lost cause.
The Pats rank near the bottom of the league by rushing success rate, yards per carry, EPA, DVOA, all of the most telling metrics. They can nonetheless get by with an inefficient run game, as some high-powered offenses do, if they hit enough explosive runs that offset their down-to-down inefficiency, and if they convert in short-yardage.
Bad news: the Pats stink in short-yardage, too, converting barely half the time. So why do they continue to run?
TreVeyon Henderson just won AFC Rookie of the Month because the threat of him breaking a long touchdown run with 4.3 speed keeps defenses honest. Since the start of November, Henderson is among the NFL leaders in yards after contact, and rushing yards over expected. The run game is a vehicle for a devastating play-action passing attack.
According to Pro Football Focus, Maye has completed 72% of his passes for 981 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions off play-action. His 9.8 yards per attempt average is a full yard higher than his season-long average on all throws. His passer rating is a sparkling 126.3.
Effective play-action does not require an effective run game, but it does require an offense committed to running the ball so that its play fakes must be respected. So the next time you wonder why Josh McDaniels is insisting on what looks like running into a brick wall, here you go.
6. Vrabel’s throwback identity
In all the Super Bowls and years that followed, it’s easy to forget the Patriots founded their dynasty on a punch to the mouth.
Re-watch some clips of their Super Bowl XXXVI win over the Rams during that 2001 season, and some of those hits will strike you as downright illegal. Because by today’s rules, they are.
That type of physicality keyed their first title, and ensuing wins over their top AFC challenger — the Colts — in the playoffs of the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Vrabel is running a distinctly different program than Bill Belichick did then, but there are a few non-negotiable ingredients to building a winning team. Physicality is one of them, and few coaches, if any, know that better than Vrabel.
Last week, such physicality — highlighted by Christian Elliss’ crushing sideline blow of Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart — pushed the Pats into their bye week with a 10th straight win. Their defensive game plan did not revolve around a set of schemes or concepts.
Just brute physicality. It worked.
7. Load management
Defensive captain Robert Spillane played a season-low 38 defensive snaps last Monday. Outside linebacker Harold Landry saw 31. Stefon Diggs has topped 40 offensive snaps just twice this year.
The Patriots have been playing the long game with their veterans’ health this season, and it’s the right move. The franchise has not finished a season strong since 2017, and the best version of this team always was going to necessitate productive years from its older players. That includes Diggs, Landry and 34-year-old right tackle Morgan Moses, who has been on a pitch count since training camp.
The Pats have lost a few starters to serious injury recently, including left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams landing on IR. But the team seems to have staved off the injury bug as long as possible, and has reaped those rewards.
8. Can you believe this?
In the last 20 years, can you name a college wide receiver the Patriots have drafted with more career NFL touchdowns than Kayshon Boutte?
No, you can’t. Because that player doesn’t exist.
Boutte’s nine touchdowns are the most among all drafted Patriots wide receivers dating back to Deion Branch, who was a second-round pick in 2002. Brandon Tate, a third-rounder from 2009, ranks second with seven. This list, of course, excludes Julian Edelman, another 2009 draft pick who played quarterback in college.
It’s both a credit to Boutte’s rapid development, and a clear reflection of the Patriots’ worst draft failures since Branch. And get this: Branch was drafted before Boutte was even born.
9. Kraft, Belichick reunion?
Holy awkwardness, Batman.
If Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick receive votes from 80% of the Hall of Fame committee when the committee reconvenes in February to elect the Hall’s 2026 class, they will be inducted together next summer. Their relationship froze` over two years ago at the end of Belichick’s tenure and went ice cold in the ensuing months over The Dynasty documentary, Kraft’s comments about firing Belichick on a podcast and the coach’s ongoing shots at his former team through the media. Belichick, presumably, will be in attendance if elected despite coaching at North Carolina next summer, though it’s hard to see him making time for his former boss that weekend.
Anyway, consider booking your flights and buying tickets to the ceremony and the Hall of Fame Game now, by the way.
The Patriots have not played in the league’s annual preseason opener since 2000, and some years the league schedules the former teams of its newest inductees to play outside Canton during Hall of Fame weekend. The one downside: training camp would start much earlier for the Patriots.
10. Quote of the Week
“That we’re not done. We’re not satisfied. I think champions are never satisfied. I think you can appreciate where you are, but at the same time, never be satisfied or complacent. The fine line between rest and recovery, and just being sedentary. So, there’s a fine line of what we have to do to be able to come back in here, understand that just because you have a bye, that doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed some victory the next week in this league. Teams are 16-12 coming off a bye this year, so obviously the bye doesn’t guarantee anything other than we should get some guys back that we didn’t have last night.” — Mike Vrabel on his message to the Patriots before breaking for their bye week