The Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win over the Bills on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
Keeping a division title alive is at stake for the Bills.
Sunday afternoon’s matchup marks one of the most important Patriots games of his decade. The Patriots are 11-2 and riding a 10-game winning streak, but they still haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot.
The Patriots already beat the Bills once, in Buffalo, in Week 5, and they’re coming off of their bye week. They’re banged up, however, and the Bills are favored, despite the game being held in Foxboro at Gillette Stadium.
Here’s what we’re watching for when the Patriots and Bills take the field.
• Surprisingly, Ian Eagles and JJ Watt, not Jim Nantz and Tony Romo, are on the call for this game. Nantz and Romo will be broadcasting the Packers-Broncos game at 4:25 p.m. But all eyes across the league should be on Bills-Patriots, which is an MVP showcase for both Patriots QB Drake Maye (+200) and Bills QB Josh Allen (+1500). Rams QB Matthew Stafford is the favorite at -180, but the MVP race is still wide open. Maye has exceeded expectations in his second season, while Allen continues to play like one of the best players in football. It’s easy to draw comparisons between the two, but as the odds indicate, Maye has played slightly more efficiently this season.
• The Patriots have had some great rivalries, historically, with the Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens and Broncos, but their matchups with the Bills were pretty one-sided through the 2001-to-2018 dynasty era. That has flipped, but Allen is still just 7-7 as a starter against the Patriots. This rivalry could turn heated and personal if both teams continue to vie for AFC East bragging rights. They both have fervent fanbases, and they’ll continue to play twice a year in must-watch matchups.
• Allen is a concern, and the Patriots’ pass defense needs to be careful even if his wide receiver corps is lacking this season. But James Cook and the Bills’ rushing attack feels even more dangerous in this matchup. The Patriots were one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses through the first 10 weeks of the season and limited Cook to under 50 yards in Week 5, but since starting defensive tackle Milton Williams went down with an ankle injury in Week 11 against the Jets, they’ve seriously struggled. The Patriots’ defense was fourth in rushing EPA (expected points added) and eighth in success rate through the first 10 weeks of the season. Since Williams went out, they’ve ranked 23rd and 31st, respectively. Defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga appears primed to return, but starting outside linebacker Harold Landry is dealing with a lingering knee injury. Linebacker Robert Spillane, one of the team’s most consistent defenders, is also questionable to play with a foot injury.
• It’s not the worst game to be without starting left tackle Will Campbell, and starting rookie left guard Jared Wilson appears ready to make a return from an ankle injury. Campbell can’t suit up until Week 18 at the earliest as he’s dealing with a knee injury that placed him on injured reserve. Vederian Lowe filled in for Campbell in Week 13 and played well, allowing just three hurries to an underrated Giants pass rush. The Bills rank just 27th in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN’s metrics. Their 28 team sacks ranks 20th in the NFL.
• The Patriots’ defense needs to be better at generating turnovers. They rank just 20th in takeaways this season and have a +1 turnover differential despite having the 24th-most giveaways. The Bills, somewhat surprisingly, have the fifth most giveaways this season with 10 interceptions and eight fumbles lost. To beat the Bills, the Patriots have to pick off Allen and force Cook to fumble.
• Is it time for another big game out of Patriots wide recevier Stefon Diggs against his former team? He hasn’t picked up 30 receiving yards in two consecutive games, but Diggs previously had strong performances in primetime against the Bills and Jets. Diggs seemed extra motivated in Week 5 against the Bills, and now Buffalo has added top cornerback Christian Benford to the injury report.
• One of the areas that the Patriots need to clean up is short-yardage running. The offensive line and running backs have not been getting the job done, at times, between the tackles. The Bills have not been a stout run defense this season, ranking 31st in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate.
• Some of those issues have also led to struggles in the red zone. This is a game where offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels needs to pull out all the stops. He did hint that there could be more wrinkles in his play-calling arsenal left in the playbook.
• There’s potential snow in the forecast, though it might be over by the time the game starts at 1 p.m. Snow would certainly provide a cinematic backdrop for a mid-December game, but it also might favor the Bills.
• It’s hard to bet against the Patriots this season. They haven’t lost since Sept. 21, and they’ve passed nearly every test presented to them over the last three months. But this game is tricky without Campbell and Williams. We’ll go with a Bills 27-24 win.