Listen: I joined Helen and Mike for the third year in a row on their We Said, They Said podcast to talk tennis before the 2026 season. Always a pleasure.
Predictions are more on the fun/irrelevant side of things, but it’s sometimes interesting looking back to see where the head was at. How did my 2025 predictions go?
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Rune to finish top 5? — It looked promising at one stage post-Indian Wells and Barcelona, but this wasn’t close. I’m still bullish on the Dane fulfilling on his talent long-term.
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Sinner does the Channel Slam — very close.
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Fonseca finishes top 20 — pretty close! He ended at #24 with the lightest schedule of the top 30 (not including injured players like Draper/Rune/Paul).
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Berrettini returns to top 10 — No. the guy is too injury prone sadly.
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De Minaur has his best AO campaign — Yes.
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Alcaraz’s backhand regresses — at the time he had that shaved down nub that I felt would break under pressure. He reverted during clay and then won RG/US, so I’m calling it a win.
How do I see 2026 playing out?
Gill Gross did an end of 2026 top 10 ranking prediction so I decided to make one as well.
This was hard because I can’t remember so many genuine challengers to the top 10 being injured for a slam; Draper still sidelined with a bone bruise in his left arm; Fils still sidelined with a stress fracture in his back; Rune won’t be back until March from his torn achilles, and that’s being optimistic; Fritz comes in to 2026 nursing knee tendonitis; Zverev had injury concerns throughout 2025; Medvedev has had persistent shoulder issues for the past few seasons to the point his serve was no longer a weapon, although it looks improved for the moment; Shelton lost all his momentum with his US Open shoulder injury; for Fonseca bulls, the teen has pulled out of Brisbane and Adelaide with back concerns, and is in doubt for the AO; and Djokovic is 39, so everything probably hurts. Oh, and in better news (but not for the ranking) Ruud’s wife could give birth any day now, jeopardising his AO campaign. Even Musetti, who is the healthiest and most in-form of the bunch, had some minor issues in the Honk Kong final that carried over to an exhibition with Zverev the past couple of days.
Perhaps one strain of thought that provides a silver-lining to some of these bruised and long-sidelined young prospects is that they can often come back in even better physical shape (Hubi Hurkacz, anyone?) than what a grinding, 11-month tour schedule allows, off-setting any declines in rust and initial match-fitness. Hurkacz has been serving bombs — even in cool evening conditions against Zverev — so far this summer, and Draper, Fils, Paul, and Rune will be looking to Hubi for inspiration and encouragement on that front.
Anyway, right now, the top of the rankings is a bit of a mess. Sincaraz’s stranglehold looks stronger than ever, but here’s where I landed:
Let’s start from the top.
1 and 2: While Alcaraz has improved his week-to-week focus and overall performances, Sinner has a two-year track record of locking in every week and delivering 8’s and 9’s. I still think it’s going to be a close race, but I give the edge to Sinner given the calendar skews more hard than clay. I think the night schedule down the home stretch of the Aus Open gives Sinner an edge in matches there, too, should they play there. I don’t have win-loss stats on hand but cooler evenings/indoors certainly takes a bit of sting out Carlos’ heavy forehand/kick-serve game.
3 and 4: Who is going to be 3 is the biggest question for this exercise. I think Draper is the best choice if healthy from Feb Davis cup — which is his new projected return date — but the scope of this injury, with the repeated setbacks (he was initially due back at the US Open) is concerning and I hope he proves me wrong. Of course the biggest difference between Gill’s and my prediction is with Meddy. I am still high on Musetti staying up there this year, but I went with Medvedev over Musetti and everyone else for a couple of reasons: (a) the serve stats are trending back in a positive direction for the Russian. At his best the serve was a major weapon, and his serve in Brisbane was firing again (up at an 8.6, well above his 2025 8.2 rating); (b) the forehand started to get better post-US Open last year. The last two seasons it seemed like he tried to become more of an aggressive baseliner, and tinkered a lot with racquet and string changes looking for more power. But he’s never going to be a baseliner slugger, and he lost his consistency (down ~2% in make-% off both wings compared to 2023) and confidence as a result. More recently he seems to have rediscovered his counterpunching discipline, but he has added aggression to his bow in the form of net sneaks, especially off his backhand. He did it at the tail end of last year, and he showed it in Brisbane again, sneaking in off that line-faded backhand; (c) the new coaching staff. Fresh ideas. No scar tissue. Early success (two titles: Almaty, Brisbane). The “vibes” are probably better than they’ve been for some time; and (d) the tour structure rewards hard court specialists more than clay court specialists. It’s why he has 22 titles in 22 different cities. Medvedev’s best surface is littered with slams/1000s throughout the year. There’s six hard court Masters 1000s from March to November (seven if you count the ATP Finals on indoor hard as a 1000-ish event), and in recent years the Canada/Cincy double is the most easily “vultured” 1000 from Sincaraz, as they tend to skip Canada (case in point: Popyrin/Shelton). I think Musetti has to fire in April and May — Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros — if he is to secure the third rank. He did very well on clay in 2025, but Sinner was absent for that stretch as well. While Musetti has improved on hard courts, he only has one quarterfinal to his name at slams (US Open 2025) or 1000s (Paris 2022), and no hard court titles at any level. I think his backhand defensive strategy is exposed too well by serve-plus-forehand players on hard, and more than ever this is an era of instinctive, pull-the-trigger, plus-one tennis. For this reason I gave the edge to Medvedev. His low and flat ball is harder/trickier to counter on hard, and while his defensive capabilities have declined, he’s still more difficult to hit through on acrylic than 99% of the tour. He’s been to the top, and he’s going to show that he’s still the best of the rest when at his best.
5 and 6: Zverev’s 2025 was bad by his standards, and he finished three in the world and made a slam final. I think his trajectory hasn’t looked great, but this is still a guy with a huge serve, massive engine/endurance, top three backhand, coverable forehand, and his worst surface is grass (short season). If Draper was healthy from the start of 2026 I would have him higher, but I don’t know when he will return and what it will look like. Draper is defending 1000 points in March come Indian Wells. Draws could get tougher heading into Madrid, where he again made a final. Then there’s Wimbledon, which is his worst surface infused with British tabloids. These are all rankings headwinds in my eyes. Of course, Zverev defends a final showing in Melbourne next week, but he’s in the draw and that’s a chance at 2000 points when Draper can’t get any.
7 and 8: Fritz is battling some knee tendonitis heading into the first major. His base level is so solid: mentally, tactically, technically, physically. He shows up and grinds from 250s to Slams, all over the world, January to November. Put simply, he’s built for this shit. I wonder if he plays too much though, and if he ends up losing half a step — something he’s worked so hard to gain in recent years — for a couple of months because of these knees, it won’t make it any easier holding on to a top 10 spot. Then there’s FAA. World number 7 after that smoking-hot Fall season. He’s done that before, only to fall (no pun intended) away for months at a time. But I think he will keep his slot this year. He’s got the benefit of experience (we forget he’s still just 25), a stretch of good health (fingers crossed), and he’s found something on the backhand to cover that wing; it’s flatter, going line more often, and missing less. Given his steep drop in the backswing that can lead to timing issues, these data points are positive indicators that his swing is improving, even if imperceptible to the eye. If he can maintain that trend, he’s going to get more forehands and more victories. The serve, the movement, the all surface success; he can have deep runs at any time. Plus, he’ll have a good seeding all the way until August, given the bulk of his points came from the US Open onwards. He’s defending very few points at the slams and 1000s until then, and he tends to excel down the home stretch anyway.
9 and 10: Ah man, the urge to go full hype mode and put Fonseca at four or something was there, but I think he and his team are always playing the long game, which I like. A light schedule, caution with the body, and he’s still physically developing, but the question is when, not if, Fonseca makes a push for the number 3 spot. I won’t be surprised to see him make deep runs, but he won’t do it consistently against a horde of great attackers exposing his movement like Draper did at the French. And then there’s Novak. This is simply a schedule thing. He’s locked in mentally for four tournaments. Everything else is a question mark, and he’s only getting older. Injuries are becoming more common, and the two-week 1000 format is a hard no when you’ve got his resume and family-oriented lifestyle. Still, he’s the third best player in the world when on the court, and deep slam runs/the occasional 1000 will continue to net him a lot of points.
11: de Minaur. His 2025 body of work is pretty damn impressive. In fact, a part of me wonders if de Minaur could actually make a rankings push with a bit of draw luck, given the field is in tatters of some kind, and he’s spoken about beefing up in the off-season again. He’s similar to Fritz in that he shows up every week, in every city, and is ridiculously hard to beat if your name isn’t Alcaraz or Sinner. One of the fastest players of all time, but as Gill mentioned, the work-rate required to keep this up must be enormous. I also think any slam draws that open up are becoming more and more of a Rublev-esque mental hurdle for the Aussie, still searching for his first semifinal from a bucket of chances.
12: Shelton. He’s capitalised on good draws at majors (defending semifinal points in Australia next week), as well as a 1000 title in the absence of Sincaraz in Toronto. He had so much momentum going into the US Open before he got that unfortunate shoulder injury, so lets see how quickly he can get back up to speed. He’s a guy still on the rise and developing, but his week-to-week consistency makes it hard to stay top 10 without slam runs.
13: Bublik. He could push even higher than his newly-minted 10th spot, given how little points he is defending until mid-March, but come then the pressure will be on. The Kazakh showed a maturity and focus at the 250s and Challengers in 2025 that, combined with his high-ceiling/high-risk runs at Roland Garros, Halle, and the US Open, catapulted him from #82 around this time last year. Still, his level has been higher and more consistent than ever, and he got off to the perfect 2026 race start, winning Hong Kong last week.
14: Ruud. I liked how Ruud was playing down the home stretch of 2025. A racquet switch to something more in vogue; 98 inches from 100 gave him more control to take big cuts. He was smoking the ball in Stockholm, and that is being rewarded in this era. He’s spoken recently about learning from the younger generation’s trigger-happy instincts, and it’s encouraging to see him commit to that style on the quicker stuff. Still, it’s hard to put him higher when he is a perennial no-show for grass, and often makes the bulk of his points on clay. Everyone I put above him has shown that they can win — and are willing to try — on all surfaces.
15: Rublev. I feel like Rublev lost some of his intensity in 2025. Maybe belief is a better word. He was smiling at the handshake after being upset by Fonseca this time last year in Australia. The forehand went the wrong away on Tennis Insights’ shot quality metric: down to #34 in 2025, when in his best years it was a lock for the top-10. He did look to come forward a little more, but I don’t know if he has the baseline defence/steadiness to make up for any drop in forehand quality. I think he holds where he is.
Others
Rune? will start his season too late I believe, but he spoke well on Roddick’s Served podcast about the silver-lining’s of such an injury and prolonged absence. If he came back stronger and more disciplined with his game, he could still make it.
Fils? long-term going to be a threat for the top 10 and I love his game. He might be, along with Draper/Hubi/Paul, one of the cases this year that shows the benefit of not rushing back. He’s a specimen/great athlete, and if he hits the tour in February truly fit and ready, he’ll take some bodies and be back in form for clay season.
Tsitsipas? has gone sideways (which is backwards in pro tennis) for a couple of years now in a tour that is killing weak one-handers. He’s back to a more powerful racquet, which helps, but does he have the discipline and desire to get back to the top 10?
Fokina? the forehand is questionable under pressure. Lacks the serving power. Such a good athlete though and I hope he finds his maiden title in 2026.
Mensik? huge forehand question mark. Perhaps the most “what if” shot of the next few years. If he can fix that top 10 and more awaits.
Lehecka? amazing ball striker, but I don’t know if he has the movement. He’s built like a Belgian Blue, which is good for your squat numbers, but probably not end-range tennis defence.
Khachanov? steady to a fault, perhaps. He’s very good everywhere, but great nowhere. For a 6’6’’ Russian, the forehand firepower is lacking and he doesn’t have the Zverev/Medvedev movement to offset that.
Paul? Such a fluid athlete and all-court player, but the forehand under pressure makes it difficult to secure top 10 slots. Hoping for a healthy 2026, as he shut his 2025 season down after the US Open to get fit, so I’m expecting him to come out strong in Australia.
Tien? If learner Tien had arrived on the scene in 1999 I’m convinced he would have been top 5 and maybe won a slam, but I think his strokes and body type are in the wrong era. He’s got more of a Meddy-style “stroke” rather than the whip/stretch on the forehand that Alcaraz/Sinner/Fonseca possess, and the serve is a work in progress despite how intelligently and accurately he places it.
Hurkacz? He’s shown a great level in the United Cup, but his career performances at slams have been well below a player of his standard.
Well that’s my ranking prediction for 2026.