Me oh my, yes boy, do we have a doozy down under. It’s the unstoppable force vs the immovable object: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina in the 2026 Australian Open women’s final. They’re two of the game’s best ball-strikers and are both in red-hot form, setting up a captivating repeat of the 2023 final this Saturday in Melbourne.
Read on for my preview of the women’s Australian Open final, as I look at the head-to-head, odds and form, before giving my tactical breakdown, prediction and best bets.
Tale of the tape – Sabalenka v Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka Australian Open record
Overall: 34-6
Best previous result: Champion (2023, 2024)
Path to the 2026 Australian Open final:
- R1 – Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah (6-4, 6-1)
- R2 – Zhuoxuan Bai (6-3, 6-1)
- R3 – Anastasia Potapova (7-6(4), 7-6(7))
- R4 – [17] Victoria Mboko (6-1, 7-6(1))
- QF – [29] Iva Jovic (6-3, 6-0)
- SF – [12] Elina Svitolina (6-2, 6-3)
Australia has been Sabalenka’s happy place, with the Belarusian going 26-1 in Melbourne over the past four editions and lifting the trophy twice. This year has been no different, as the world No 1 has been in ferocious form, failing to drop a set and dismantling in-form threats like Mboko, Jovic and Svitolina like they were qualifiers. She’s through to her fourth-straight Australian Open final, a feat not seen since Martina Hingis achieved it in 2003.
Elena Rybakina Australian Open record
Overall: 20-6
Best previous result: Finalist (2023)
Path to the 2026 Australian Open final:
- R1 – Kaja Juvan (6-4, 6-3)
- R2 – Varvara Gracheva (7-5, 6-2)
- R3 – Tereza Valentova (6-2, 6-3)
- R4 – [21] Elise Mertens (6-1, 6-3)
- QF – [2] Iga Swiatek (7-5, 6-1)
- SF – [6] Jessica Pegula (6-3, 7-6(7))
Rybakina also has fond memories down under, having made the final here in 2023. She’s been mercurial since then, making the second and fourth rounds respectively in recent editions, though this year she’s looking the real deal. The Kazakh is also yet to drop a set this year and has taken apart back-to-back top-10 opponents in Swiatek and Pegula to reach the final.
Sabalenka v Rybakina head-to-head
Overall: 8-6 to Sabalenka
Last five meetings:
- 2024 WTA Finals – Rybakina (6-4, 3-6, 6-1)
- 2025 Berlin – Sabalenka (7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(6))
- 2025 Cincinnati – Rybakina (6-1, 6-4)
- 2025 Wuhan – Sabalenka (6-3, 6-3)
- 2025 WTA Finals – Rybakina (6-3, 7-6(0))
Sabalenka holds a slight edge in the pair’s head-to-head, though this rivalry has historically been a pick ‘em. Case in point: the winner has alternated their last nine meetings. Rybakina bagged their most recent meeting at the 2025 WTA Finals, while Sabalenka has won both of their Grand Slam clashes, including the 2023 final here. On outdoor hardcourts Sabalenka has a 6-5 edge, while in finals Rybakina is up 3-1.
Women’s Australian Open final odds
- Aryna Sabalenka – 1.61 (-164)
- Elena Rybakina – 2.37 (+137)
Tennis bookmakers have this clash nice and tight, giving Sabalenka a slight edge at 1.61 (-164) to 2.37 (+137).
Sabalenka also has her nose ahead when it comes to set betting, with a 2-0 win to the Belarusian priced at 2.62 (+162). The same result for Rybakina is a longer 4.00 (+300). Speaking of set betting, the match ending in two sets is priced the shortest, paying 1.66 (-151) compared to three sets which is at 2.10 (+110).
The total games market is set at 22.5 games, paying 1.83 (-181) either way.
Sabalenka v Rybakina expert analysis
The case for Sabalenka
Sabalenka has unequivocally been the best hard-court player in the world the past two years. She’s made seven straight Grand Slam finals on the surface, winning three of those including the most recent in New York last September. Here at the Australian Open, she’s tasted defeat just once since 2023 – in the final last year, against Madison Keys.
In terms of the match up with Rybakina, Sabalenka holds four key advantages: her experience at this level, her movement, her variety, and her stellar tiebreak record.
The Belarusian is no stranger to competing at this level, with Saturday representing her eighth major final (compared to just three for Rybakina). While Sabalenka has lost her fair share of those, she’s spoken clearly on the lessons learnt from those losses, two of which came last year. Expect her to enter this match with a clear head and plenty of composure should things get tough.
On the court, she scrambles better than Rybakina and holds a movement edge both laterally and coming into the net. There, she’s got the better hands, and will feel more comfortable moving forward and finishing with the volley. Her ability to mix in dropshots, slices and high, heavy balls is also superior to Rybakina’s.
Lastly, the 27-year-old has a sublime tiebreak record. She’s won her last 20 in a row, something that will almost certainly come in handy against the big-serving Rybakina.
The case for Rybakina
While Sabalenka has been the best player in the world the past two, Rybakina has been the WTA Tour’s form player in recent months. She’s won 19 of her last 20 matches including nine straight against top-10 opponents. One of these was Sabalenka, and she remains the last player to defeat the Belarusian – and take a tiebreak off her.
Rybakina’s main edge is her serve. The Kazakh has fired down 41 aces this tournament, and when her serve is on, it’s the biggest weapon in women’s tennis. Her powerful, flat groundstrokes are also a menacing threat, though the jury is out whether you’d take her power over Sabalenka’s.
The path to victory for Rybakina is clear – cheap holds, dominating first-strike tennis, and leveraging her excellent wingspan to put pressure on the return, particularly of Sabalenka’s second serve.
While she’s got less experience at this end of a Grand Slam, there’s something to be said for all the pressure sitting on Sabalenka too. Expect Rybakina to play freer courtesy of being the underdog. She’ll also draw plenty of confidence from the fact that she’s beaten Sabalenka in six of their last 10 meetings.
Our 2026 Women’s Australian Open final prediction & betting tips
- Sabalenka to win @ 1.61 (-164)
- Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 (-120)
- Over 0.5 tiebreaks @ 2.50 (+150)
Given the fact that neither of these players have won back-to-back matches against the other since 2023, I’d be remiss to say that predicting this clash is clear-cut.
This match will come down to who executes better. When firing, both women play almost unbeatable first-strike tennis with brutal groundstrokes. Expect the winner to be determined by who sprays the most unforced errors.
My tip is that this will be Rybakina. The Kazakh’s forehand is a vicious weapon, but it’s also more likely to break down than Sabalenka’s. She has a predictable pattern of going crosscourt anytime she’s rushed on the forehand, and I think Sabalenka will be well aware of that. She’ll target that wing with pace, then move across to her forehand side, tempting Rybakina with the line. Rybakina will either play into Sabalenka’s forehand – where she’ll be set and ready – or take on the line, which is a less comfortable shot for her.
The reliance of Rybakina on her serve also has me hesitant to pick the Kazakh. Yes, it’s a weapon, but her numbers were down against both Swiatek and Pegula. It’s simply a too-many-eggs-in-one-basket scenario for me. Sabalenka has more ways to win even if one aspect of her game isn’t firing on all cylinders.
I’m expecting Sabalenka to win in either two tight sets, or in a decider. Betting on the total games to be over 22.5 is covered by a tiebreak set and a one-service break set, or, quite easily by a three-setter. Given Rybakina’s service strength and the closeness in level between these two, I’d be very surprised if we don’t see a tiebreak at some stage.