Last year, the Wooden Award race tilted heavily towards Auburn’s Johni Broome right from the jump. Broome’s Tigers began the season 21-1 with a bevy of big wins, easily capturing the No. 1 ranking nationally. Even through an ankle injury, Broome dominated, but he could not quite pull away from a burgeoning rookie star from Duke.
Cooper Flagg made it a two-horse race, eventually overtaking Broome with an otherworldly surge through January and February. It certainly helped that Flagg narrowly outplayed Broome in a head-to-head victory for the Blue Devils in early December.
This year, another fabulous freshman forward from Duke is a key factor in the race, and he has quickly risen to the top of the betting odds. Cam Boozer has been nothing short of brilliant for the Blue Devils as they have gotten off to a 10-0 start.
Unsurprisingly, Boozer’s odds to win the award have followed, though his early ascent from “moderate possibility” to “odds-on favorite” is still remarkable. Boozer opened at +1200 at BetMGM to win the award; he is now -150 and BetMGM’s largest liability to win the award (most money bet on him).
While Boozer has started the season playing great basketball, his rise in the odds is also due to the backslide from preseason favorites. Braden Smith’s Purdue Boilermakers just got shellacked at home by Iowa State this past weekend, and though Smith remains the brilliant quarterback of arguably the country’s best offense, he has had some finishing struggles that hinder his overall numbers. As a result, his odds of winning the award have fallen from +500 to +900.
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin initially seemed analogous to Broome last year: Both are skilled lefty forwards capable of piling up double-doubles against even the best competition. He racked up 66 points and 25 rebounds combined in his first two contests, but he and Texas Tech have both come down to earth since then. After starting the year at +1200, Toppin is now available at +2000.
If Toppin isn’t the veteran interior player for an elite team with an inside track to the award, perhaps that title belongs to another. Iowa State’s Josh Jefferson and Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg have both led supernova surges to the top of KenPom’s national rankings.
Initially limited by a wrist injury, Lendeborg has been stellar during Michigan’s current run of dominance. He is a force on the glass, is an elite finisher around the rim, and displays impressive shooting and playmaking tools that help unlock the Wolverines’ offense. Jefferson, meanwhile, has quietly been Boozer-esque in his all-around impact for an undefeated team. How’s this for elite company in the last 20 years?
That’s two Wooden winners (Flagg and Frank Kaminsky) plus Boozer, Jefferson and Lendeborg. Not bad!
The odds for Jefferson and Lendeborg have narrowed, although perhaps not enough to measure their current impact and chances at the award. Lendeborg opened at +2000, but now resides at +1200. Jefferson is the more stunning case. He was not even listed in BetMGM’s initial release of Wooden candidates, but he is now +3000 and could continue climbing quickly if his Cyclones maintain their intergalactic trajectory.
The other story to track in the Wooden race is the enormous impact of the 2025 freshman class. Boozer is the obvious headliner, but several others could still have a say in the award’s outcome.
AJ Dybantsa has the name recognition, and his BYU Cougars are 8-1 and a top-10 team. He nearly had a national moment in helping BYU erase a large deficit against UConn, though the Cougars came up just short in that one. Overall, Dybantsa’s odds have moved from +1200 to +1700. Fellow rookies Koa Peat, Darryn Peterson, Mikel Brown Jr. and Caleb Wilson are all squarely in the picture as well.
Peat (+4000) and Wilson (+2500) are athletic, powerful forwards who have helped their own squads get off to great starts. Brown (+2500) has posted some eye-opening highlights for Louisville, a big brand with a prolific offense. Kansas’ Peterson, who opened at +800 but is now +2000, has missed time due to a hamstring injury, but a player of his ability on a blueblood will always be in the mix.
The massive liability on Boozer has perhaps generated some value elsewhere on the board. His implied probability of 60 percent at -150 odds seems strong for this early in the season. A lot could still happen in the next four-plus months.
Jefferson and Iowa State could come back to earth, but 30-to-1 for the current runner-up in KenPom’s Player of the Year metric is great value:
Smith is also still intriguing to me. Despite his early bouts of inefficient scoring, he remains on track to push Bobby Hurley’s all-time assist record. He is averaging 8.8 helpers per game, and at that pace, he would pass Hurley in 27 or 28 games — both possible if Purdue makes runs in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. That crowning achievement could give him the momentum to overcome Boozer’s immense productivity. Shop around for the best number on the veteran point guard.
Overall, Boozer is the obvious and deserving favorite. But if Duke shockingly falters in ACC play, Jefferson or Smith could take advantage of the opening — the same way Flagg did last season with his late surge. Which means if you are looking to bet on someone other than Boozer to win the award, those two currently present betting value relative to the board.