After Sunday’s brilliant finale in California, all eyes on the WTA Tour switch to Miami, where the second half of the Sunshine Double takes place over the coming week and a half. Aryna Sabalenka got her revenge on Elena Rybakina, but can she now defend her Miami Open title? I breakdown all there is to know about the women’s draw, with a look at who’s seeded where, what match ups and dark horses to keep an eye on, plus my picks for the final weekend in Florida.
Also, don’t miss our draw analysis for the men’s Miami Open.
Women’s 2026 Miami draw: Key takeaways
Want to skip the details and get straight to the good stuff? Here’s the top level on the women’s draw in Miami:
- Sabalenka and Rybakina have been drawn in the same half
- Andreeva and Mboko could meet in the round of 16
- Swiatek and Eala are on track for a third-round blockbuster
- Sabalenka, Svitolina, Keys and Paolini are packed into the same quarter
- Venus Williams could face Pegula in the second round
Women’s Miami draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Care to know more? Read on for a full analysis of the women’s draw, quarter by quarter.
We have also put together some betting tips for the Miami WTA event.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Jasmine Paolini (7)
- Elina Svitolina (9)
- Madison Keys (15)
- Liudmila Samsonova (19)
- Qinwen Zheng (23)
- Jelena Ostapenko (25)
- Xinyu Wang (29)
Dark horses
- Taylor Townsend
- Antonia Ruzic
Early matches to watch
- Jennifer Brady vs Sloane Stephens (R1)
- Keys vs Ruzic (R2)
- Paolini vs Townsend (R2)
There’s no rest for Sabalenka after winning her maiden Indian Wells title. The world No 1 heads straight to Miami to defend her crown, and faces a rough draw. Her first two matches are fine – Ann Li or a qualifier to start, then Wang as a likely third-rounder – but from there, things get tough. Former world No 3 and last year’s Australian Open champ Keys is a potential round-of-16 opponent, before Svitolina or Paolini in the quarters.
A case can be made for Sabalenka letting her guard down here. One of her big goals for the season will have been improving her performance in pressure matches, and she certainly smashed that by saving championship point to beat Rybakina in Indian Wells. The closeness of that clash will magnify how relieved she’s feeling post-tournament. Couple that with the fact that she’s just got engaged – and become a puppy mom – and there’s plenty of reason for the Belarusian to not bring her best mentally to Miami.
But on previous occasions when Sabalenka has had reason to be distracted, she’s being incredibly professional and got the job done. I see her doing the same thing here in Miami and maintaining her impressive consistency.
As for her quarter-final opponent, I’m tipping it to be another consistent force in women’s tennis, Svitolina. The Ukrainian was strong in California and returns to the top 10 this week as a result. She’s excellent at moving through draws innocuously, and while I don’t think she’ll overcome Sabalenka (she’s lost five straight to her), I do think she’ll navigate her section of the draw.
Other options to move through the lower section – Paolini, Ostapenko, Samsonova – are simply too mercurial for my liking.
Quarter-final prediction: Sabalenka to beat Svitolina.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Elena Rybakina (3)
- Jessica Pegula (5)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (11)
- Naomi Osaka (16)
- Iva Jovic (18)
- Leylah Fernandez (26)
- Marta Kostyuk (27)
- Jaqueline Cristian (34)
Dark horses
- Paula Badosa
- Lilli Tagger
- Sara Bejlek
Early matches to watch
- Venus Williams vs Francesca Jones (R1)
- Jovic vs Badosa (R2)
- Tagger vs Alexandrova (R2)
Rybakina will be rueing the Miami Open’s seeding, which was determined before she ascended to world No 2 on Monday. This means that the Kazakh not only shares a half with Sabalenka, but also has Pegula sitting in her quarter too.
It’s been such a brilliant six months for Rybakina that I find myself looking for an opportunity to pick against her, simply because her form can’t remain at this level forever. In Pegula, I think she’ll meet her match this time.
The American sits in the bottom half of this section and has a comfortable ride through to the quarter-finals. Williams is a potential opener, before Fernandez and then Alexandrova. She’ll need to have her wits about her to get through these three, but as a defending finalist, who is 16-3 for the year, I’m confident she will.
I’m actually less confident that Rybakina will make the quarters. She’s got Yulia Putintseva and Kostyuk as her first two matches most likely, but it’s the round of 16 I’ve got my eye on. Jovic, Bejlek or Osaka await, each of which have the game to upset the third seed.
Even if she does make it through, Pegula in Miami is a better version of herself than Indian Wells, where she pushed Rybakina hard in their second set last week.
Quarter-final prediction: Pegula to beat Osaka.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (4)
- Amanda Anisimova (6)
- Belinda Bencic (12)
- Linda Noskova (14)
- Diana Shnaider (20)
- Elise Mertens (21)
- Cristina Bucsa (30)
- Maria Sakkari (33)
Dark horses
- Elisabetta Cocciaretto
- Beatriz Haddad Maia
Early matches to watch
- Haddad Maia vs Zeynep Sonmez (R1)
- Gauff vs Cocciaretto (R2)
I’m surprised that Gauff hasn’t made a deeper run in Miami, considering she’s spent much of her career training in Florida. The American’s deepest run is to the round of 16 here, but she’s got a good chance of bettering that in 2026.
Gauff sits alongside Anisimova and Noskova as the big names in quarter three, with the latter her potential round of 16 opponent. Before then, she’d need to see off Cocciaretto and Sakkari, both players she leads head-to-heads against. Neither will be a walk in the park – the former is in sharp form and the latter has five wins over Gauff – but I expect her to make it through. The American also has a strong record against Noskova, so I’m picking she’ll see off the young Czech too.
In the upper section of this quarter, things are a little more volatile. Anisimova has taken a bit of a dip this season and currently sits 9-5 for the year. Her record in Miami is no better, and in fact she’s lost more times than she’s won over her career on these courts. She faces Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic then Bucsa most likely, before taking on Bencic, Shnaider or even dark horse Haddad Maia in the fourth round.
I can’t confidently pick Anisimova through, nor am I particularly high on any of the others in this section. Bencic at 9-3 this year is the best of the lot, but that record is bloated by her strong United Cup showing. Instead, I’m in favor of taking a punt on Brazil’s Haddad Maia. She’s in rough form, but is a former top-10 player that always attracts big support in Miami.
Haddad Maia’s has the tendency to red-line from time to time, and while it’s been a minute since she last did so, she’s got the draw to pull it off this week. Don’t fancy her getting past Gauff though.
Quarter-final prediction: Gauff to beat Haddad Maia.
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Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Mirra Andreeva (8)
- Victoria Mboko (10)
- Karolina Muchova (13)
- Clara Tauson (17)
- Anna Kalinskaya (22)
- Alexandra Eala (31)
- Maria Bouzkova (32)
Dark horses
- Darja Vidmanova
- Katie Boulter
- Lara Siegemund
Early matches to watch
- Eala vs Siegemund (R2)
- Andreeva vs McCartney Kessler (R2)
- Mboko vs Sofia Kenin (R2)
Down in quarter four plenty of action can be expected, as Swiatek, Andreeva, Mboko and Muchova are all present. Two big matches loom that could well define this quarter: Swiatek vs Eala, and Andreeva vs Mboko.
It was here 12 months ago that Alexandra Eala burst onto the scene and took the WTA Tour by storm. She’s been packing out stadiums ever since, and if she manages to get through her opener against Laura Siegemund (or Petra Marcinko), she’ll likely meet Swiatek in the third. The Pole is down on confidence these days and the Filipinos will be out in force, so expect that clash to be much closer than the seeding indicates. The winner has a good chance of going on to make the quarters too, provided Muchova doesn’t have too much to say.
As for the other blockbuster in this section, that will potentially come in the round of 16. Andreeva opens against either Kessler of Magdalena Frech, in what promises to be a fascinating watch given the Russian’s big “f*** you all” to the American crowd in Indian Wells. Win and she’ll need to beat Bouzkova most likely, if she wants to set a date with Mboko.
The Canadian doesn’t have a cake walk to the round of 16 either, with Grand Slam champion Kenin a possible opener, before Kalinskaya in the third potentially.
But if Andreeva and Mboko do meet, expect fireworks. The two are very clearly vying for the title of most promising up-and-comer, with Andreeva initially billed as the one to watch, but Mboko grabbing that title from her in recent months. Both will feel like they’ve got a lot to prove.
I see Mboko prevailing, but Swiatek navigating her way out of the quarter overall.
Quarter-final prediction: Swiatek to beat Mboko.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 Women’s Miami Open
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Pegula
- Semi – Gauff beats Swiatek
- Final – Sabalenka beats Gauff
If Sabalenka is to lose in Miami, it’ll have to be early. The confidence she gained from edging out Rybakina will be a huge boon for her at the pointy end of this tournament, and I just can’t see her losing to Pegula or Gauff, should she make it this far.
For Gauff, I think she’s overdue a big run. She’s simply too good of a player to keep stacking the kind of results she’s posted so far this year, so I’m tipping she’ll make it all the way to the championship match. Her defense and familiarity with the conditions matches up well against Swiatek, and it helps she’s won her last four in a row against the Pole.
But in the final, as I mentioned, I’ve got Sabalenka prevailing over Gauff. The pair’s head-to-head sits at 6-6, with Sabalenka winning their most recent meeting in late 2025. This one comes down to confidence though, and I expect the Belarusian will be overflowing with it by the time she reaches the championship match in Miami.
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