Predicting the outcomes and the playoff picture at the start of the season is a risky business in a long baseball season. But if there’s anything consistent, it’s that there were always teams that bounced back after having a weaker season in the past.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves, once again, had terrible injury luck in 2025, continuing the series of unfortunate events that began in the 2024 season. Understanding their flaws, the Braves’ front office got to work in the offseason and brought in more pieces that can complement the current roster.
The Braves may not have made any flashy signings, but added players like Mike Yastrzemski, Ha-Seong Kim and Jorge Mateo to lengthen their depth in the lineup. Their prized signing this winter was bringing in a new closer, Robert Suarez, who should boost the bullpen that had suffered from a slow decline.
PECOTA heavily favours the Braves’ comeback, with the team ranking at the top of the NL East. In order for Atlanta to live up to the expectations, the team would need its offensive stars, like Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris III, Matt Olson and Austin Riley, to step up as well.
The Braves are in a tough spot already with an injury to one of the young starters, Spencer Schwellenbach, but if there are no other serious injuries to everyday players, the Braves should be a threat to many teams around the league.
Baltimore Orioles
Not too long ago, the Baltimore Orioles were at the top of the AL East until the team experienced their worst slump in the 2025 season. The Orioles’ young core was supposed to run it back. Still, with injuries to Félix Bautista, Kyle Bradish, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells and Jordan Westburg, the team didn’t have enough ammunition to claw back as the remaining four AL East teams continued to gun for the division lead.
First look at Chris Bassitt in Orange & Black 👀
The important part of the Orioles’ push is that they didn’t stop at addressing their weaknesses – they doubled down and signed Pete Alonso on a five-year contract, which will naturally bring more leadership, experience and power to the young roster. They also added Ryan Helsley, who can strengthen the bullpen that dipped last year.
Underestimating the Orioles isn’t a good idea, especially when the team still has many young players who can show their true performance ceilings. Even if PECOTA projects the team to place third, there is a chance that Baltimore can go the distance with a little bit of luck on its side.
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals showed their flash of potential in 2024 when stars like Vinnie Pasquantino and Bobby Witt Jr. took the mantle of becoming the faces of the franchise. However, the Royals weren’t immune to the infamous sophomore slump when they placed third in the AL Central and missed out on the playoffs in 2025.
The Royals didn’t drop significantly in any categories, which is why their decline in the past season is more curious. The main reason the team couldn’t perform to its full potential was the drop in overall power in the lineup and the lack of fundamentals like defence and baserunning.
Fortunately, the AL Central is a fairly winnable division. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins won’t be the favourites to win the division this year, and as long as the Royals can come out on top against the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers, they have a shot at making a comeback.
In order to get back into contention, the Royals will have to lengthen their lineup to support their young stars and have a healthy pitching staff. Losing Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic to injuries last year proved to be detrimental for Kansas City, which didn’t have enough rotation strength.
Yet, the Royals didn’t go out of their way to make a notable upgrade this offseason, but their position in the AL Central should still work in their favour. PECOTA projection is confident in Kansas City’s bounce-back as the team ranked first in the AL Central. All it takes is Detroit and Cleveland faltering, even for a month – the Royals’ dominance isn’t a complete delusion, in that sense.
San Francisco Giants
When Buster Posey joined the San Francisco Giants as the president of baseball operations in the fall of 2024, he said: “We’re in the memory-making business.”
Under Posey’s leadership, creating something memorable has been the goal – that’s what led to the team making bold moves like trading for Rafael Devers at the beginning of the 2025 season. But the Giants didn’t get close to giving their fans the dream season last year. Part of this is because of the Dodgers’ continued dominance in the NL West, but most of the issues stemmed from the Giants poorly executing on pitching, hitting and fielding.
For the Giants, the 2026 season is their chance to prove that the team is still very much in the memory-making business. Catching up to the Dodgers’ level may be challenging, but overpowering the uncertain San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks should be the goal to return to the playoffs in some capacity.
The Giants’ position player roster isn’t in a bad place; the team has Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Rafael Devers, who are responsible for bringing power to the team. If they are able to also get production from young players like Drew Gilbert and Heliot Ramos, they would have a lineup that can compete for second place in the NL West. The biggest X factor for San Francisco would be its starting rotation, which was one of the weakest in the league. From that standpoint, the addition of Tyler Mahle is the team’s attempt at giving more depth.
The Giants were victims of negative regression and slower starts in all-star players, like Willy Adames and Rafael Devers. But in baseball, tables can turn at any time, and the fortune could favour the Giants for a positive regression. Should the Padres and Diamondbacks continue to struggle this season, that puts San Francisco in a great place for their return to the playoff stage.