After getting all the way back up to .500 to kick off 2026, the Flames have now dropped five of their last six games and have sunk all the way back down in the NHL standings. After a crushing loss last night, they’re once again multiple wins away from the playoffs, and yet, the playoffs or tank debates rage on for Flames fans.
Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames were able to get back on track in December, coming within a couple of points of a playoff spot at one point. Following yesterday’s games, however, the Flames are now seven points out of the playoffs, with one more game played. Is it time for the Flames to finally admit defeat?
Current NHL standings
After coming so close to climbing out of the bottom five in the NHL standings last week, the Flames’ recent 1-5 stretch has left them cemented back into the bottom five of the NHL standings for now.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 20-22-6 | .479 |
| St. Louis Blues | 18-21-8 | .468 |
| Calgary Flames | 19-23-4 | .457 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 18-22-5 | .456 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 16-25-5 | .402 |
The Flames have slipped back into the bottom three in the NHL, sitting just one single point out of second last. They’ve also created a bit of a cushion for themselves in the bottom five, as they now sit four points from sixth last. Their 23 regulation losses are the second most league wide, trailing only the dreadful Canucks who have lost 25 in regulation.
Speaking of the Canucks, they continue to cement themselves as the NHL’s worst team, having dropped nine of their last 10 games. There’s also a new dog in the race, as the New York Rangers have fallen off a cliff since Igor Shesterkin went down with an injury. At this point, the Flames are still very much in the running for last place, but the Canucks are slowly running away with it and the Rangers could be a serious contender soon.
Path to the playoffs
The question now becomes, does the organization truly believe this team still has a shot at the playoffs? Where the Flames sit in the standings would suggest the playoffs are a lost cause. With only 36 games remaining, time is running out. With that said, this is the Calgary Flames we’re talking about. Until the playoffs are a mathematical impossibility, they will believe they have a chance.
Coming into the season, we were using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs this season. However, with the Western Conference being as bad as it is this year, the playoff cut-off is going to be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for just 84 points.
| Point % in Final 36 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .529 (point pace since Nov. 1st) | 80 |
| .457 (point pace in 2025-26) | 75 |
For the first time in a few weeks, the playoffs seem out of reach. With the Flames hot stretch in December, it looked like the playoffs were a very real possibility if they kept it up. In short, they haven’t. A 1-5 record in 2026 will do that. They’ve now dropped down to a .529 point percentage since November 1st, a total that is nowhere close to good enough to erase their historically bad October.
If the Flames hope to sneak into the playoffs, they need to play at a better pace than their 17-15-2 record since November 1st. That seems like a tall task for a team that has yet to register a winning streak longer than three games all season. Considering the impending loss of Rasmus Andersson in the coming weeks, that task will become even more difficult.
If they were to play to their full-season pace for the rest of the year, they’d finish with around 75 points and nowhere close to the playoffs. If they hope to hit the 84 point playoff cut-off, they’d need to gather 42 of the remaining 72 points available. That equates to a .583 point pace over the next 36 games.
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on how the next 36 games go. The Flames’ recent losing stretch has pushed them right back into the race for a top three draft selection in July.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 70 points. Third last is on pace for 76 points, and fifth last is on pace for 80 points.
| Point % in Final 36 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .457 (current pace) | 75 |
| .500 | 78 |
A top-three selection is back on the menu. By losing five of their last six games, the Flames are once again in a good spot for a top-three pick in July. It’s still far from a guarantee, but more losses mean more points banked in the race for first overall.
If they were to continue at a .457 pace for the remaining 36 games, they’d finish with around 75 points. While that probably wouldn’t be bad enough for last place, it would still firmly place them in the top five of the draft, potentially even in the top three. That would be a huge win for a team in desperate need of an elite forward.
If they were to play exactly .500 hockey the rest of the way, which seems likely given it’s the Calgary Flames, they’d finish the year with 78 points. Using The Athletic’s models’ projection, 78 points will likely get you in the four to five range at the draft. Again, that would be a huge win for the Flames even if it isn’t the coveted top-three pick.
It’s time to admit defeat
As we enter the second half of the 2025-26 season, the Flames remain in the bottom five of the NHL standings. Despite getting back to .500 to start the year, they’ve now sunk all the way back down to third last in the NHL. With only 36 games remaining on the schedule, it’s time for the organization to admit this season is going nowhere, and the top of the 2026 draft should be the goal.