If the Blue Jays are going to compete for another AL East title in 2026, they’ll need Kirk to be who he was last year — but is that actually who he is as a player?
One thing is for certain: Kirk is an excellent defender. He ranked in the 100th and 98th percentile last season for blocks above average and pitch framing, respectively. He’s accumulated at least 10 fielding run value each of the past four seasons. Few catchers play the position or manage a pitching staff better than he does.
ALEJANDRO KIRK, GRAND SLAM 😤
What’s concerning is that Kirk isn’t far removed from being a below-average hitter. He put up an OPS below .700 in 2023 and 2024 with a combined wRC+ of 94 during that stretch. Those mediocre numbers paired with his defense still equate to a useful player, but hardly one that belongs in the conversation for the league’s best catcher.
The good news for Kirk and the Blue Jays is that his batted ball distribution suggests he made meaningful changes in 2025. His 37.2% fly ball rate was his highest ever in a full season, while his soft-contact rate was the lowest it’s ever been. Hitting more fly balls with authority and fewer weak ground balls is a surefire way to improve production.
Even more encouraging are the gains Kirk made in bat speed. His 72.5 mph average in 2025 represented a significant improvement from his 70.1 mph average in the previous year. He shouldn’t experience any regression here as a 27-year-old entering his prime.