The Australian Open concluded on Sunday with Carlos Alcaraz completing the Grand Slam in a four-set victory over Novak Djokovic. Now it’s time for the annual slog that is the February swing, which is relatively low on ATP 250 tournaments these days but high on 500s. One of the 250s takes center stage this week, as the Open Occitanie in Montpellier is alone on the ATP calendar (Davis Cup competition will also be held this coming weekend). Headlining the action are Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tomas Machac, Hubert Hurkacz, and Stan Wawrinka.
It’s time to break down the draw and make predictions.
Open Occitanie
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 612,620 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Defending champion: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Draw analysis: The bottom half of the bracket is absolutely stacked. Machac and Hurkacz are joined by Flavio Cobolli, Ugo Humbert, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Adrian Mannarino. Humbert, Mpetshi Perricard, and Mannarino can be especially dangerous indoors — and all three have home-court advantage this week in France. Machac vs. Mpetshi Perricard and Humbert vs. Mannarino are potential second-round matchups. If it’s Machac vs. Humbert in the quarters, it would be a rematch of the recent Adelaide final (won by the Czech in three sets).
Auger-Aliassime has a far friendlier path to the Montpellier final through the top half of the draw. The defending champion should be fine physically since his Aussie Open first-round retirement was simply due to cramping. Although an opening matchup against either Wawrinka or Hamad Medjedovic could be difficult, for the most part Auger-Aliassime has to like his chances this week. Arthur Fils is a possible quarterfinal opponent for the Canadian, but Fils has been sidelined with a back injury since last summer’s Toronto Masters.
Hot: Tomas Machac, Arthur Gea
Cold: Arthur Fils, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Adrian Mannarino, Mackenzie McDonald
Quarterfinal predictions: Felix Auger-Aliassime over Valentin Royer, Tallon Griekspoor over Aleksandar Kovacevic, Ugo Humbert over Tomas Machac, and Hubert Hurkacz over Nikoloz Basilashvili
Semifinals: Auger-Aliassime over Griekspoor and Humbert over Hurkacz
Final: Auger-Aliassime over Humbert