With the conclusions of UFC 324 and 325, the new year has arrived, providing fans with some good matchups to get 2026 off to the right start. The lightweight division featured an interesting matchup between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett in the main event of UFC 324. While many fans in the mixed martial arts community thought there were more deserving contenders, the fight still delivered on action. The fight between Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett was a contrasting clash that highlighted a veteran, savvy approach from Justin against a young but hungry Paddy “The Baddy”. From an observational standpoint, neither fighter employed decisive tactics that could lead to an easier outcome; though Justin Gaethje’s pressure and power was enough to keep him comfortably ahead. The Justin Gaethje versus Paddy Pimblett fight has faced criticism from other fighters, such as Rafael Fiziev, who expressed concern about the potential matchup between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje in the near future (Steelchinmma, 2026). Justin versus Ilia will represent the significance of Gaethje’s legacy within the UFC and the organisation’s priorities as far as matchmaking is concerned.
However long a potential matchup between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria lasts, it has all the ingredients to make for an entertaining bout. Ilia Topuria is regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists on the planet according to official rankings, while Justin Gaethje is often perceived as being in the latter stages of his career and slightly declining in technical ability (UFC, n.d; Steelchainmma, 2026). Despite Justin Gaethje’s three wins out of four fights since 2023, he is once again overlooked as an underdog (UFC, n.d; Lee, 2026).
Undoubtedly, Topuria is the younger man with more momentum and signature wins. He is physically faster, and statistically the better fighter defensively with a striking defence percentage of 64% (UFC, n.d; ESPN MMA, n.d). According to the data compiled by the UFC (n.d), Justin Gaethje appears to land more than Ilia but takes one to give one, which reinforces why many mixed martial arts experts conclude that this is a dangerous fight for Justin Gaethje. Ilia is the more well-rounded fighter in terms of presenting different skills during a fight and is also the more technically sound fighter. However, Gaethje could present problems to Topuria if he is able to consistently land leg kicks without being countered when closing the distance. It is a tall task against a fighter who produces the type of damage that Ilia Topuria does in a fight.
Justin Gaethje’s interim title win against Paddy Pimblett moves him to number seven, alongside Charles Oliveira, Sean Sherk, Rafael Dos Anjos and Anthony Pettis in lightweight title wins (UFC, n.d). Justin Gaethje has shown elite consistency over his illustrious career and is a great fighter, but he’ll have to face another titan in an undisputed title fight against Ilia Topuria. On paper, this is an uphill battle for Justin Gaethje, who is seemingly outmatched skill-wise against an Ilia Topuria that is continuing to etch his name in UFC history by potentially adding another legend to his resume of title wins. Online sources within the mixed martial arts community speculate that this fight will take place on the White House card, and if so, Ilia Topuria versus Justin Gaethje will forever be part of UFC history in another historic milestone for the organisation (Lindsay, 2026).
References
UFC. (n.d). Justin Gaethje Stats. Retrieved from http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/9e8f6c728eb01124
UFC. (n.d). Athlete Rankings. Retrieved from https://www.ufc.com/rankings
UFC. (n.d). Ilia Topuria Stats. Retrieved from http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/54f64b5e283b0ce7
UFC. (n.d). Total Fights – Wins. Retrieved from https://statleaders.ufc.com/?fighter_status=0&weight_class=LW
ESPN MMA. (n.d). Ilia Topuria (Lightweight) MMA profile. Retrieved from https://www.espn.com/mma/fighter/_/id/4350812/ilia-topuria
ESPN MMA. (n.d). Justin Gaethje (Lightweight) MMA profile. Retrieved from https://www.espn.com/mma/fighter/_/id/3022345/justin-gaethje
Santiago, C. (2025, May 22). UFC star explains why ‘more exciting’ Justin Gaethje didn’t get Ilia Topuria fight at UFC 317. Image retrieved from https://bloodyelbow.com/2025/05/22/ufc-star-explains-why-more-exciting-justin-gaethje-didnt-get-ilia-topuria-fight-at-ufc-317/
Lee, A. (2026, January 27). UFC 324 title fight winner is a massive underdog in unification bout odds. Retrieved from https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ufc-324-title-fight-winner-230000672.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMNyBfR4_RHfLjp
Steelchinmma. (2026, February 2). Rafael Fiziev talks about the fight between Gaethje and Topuria. Retrieved from https://youtube.com/shorts/sefZwR0c-L0?si=J7bwilrDKHJdcoLi
Lindsay, L. (2026, February 5). Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje is likely for the UFC White House event. Retrieved from https://verdictmma.com/news/ilia-topuria-vs-justin-gaethje-ufc-white-house-event/1576