Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 2/10/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody. We’re going to go relatively short today so smoke em if you got em.

Goule: Feel like Im not seeing enough River Ryan ROY talk. Is that because he’s older? I see an easy path to 20 plus starts.

Brendan Gawlowski: I agree with you, I think he’s really good.

Steve: Where does Chowolsky fit among top SS prospects right now?  Is he in the Griffin, McGonigle, Made, De Vries et. al. group or the next tier down?  How quickly does he get to the majors?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m optimistic on the guy but let’s let him see some pro pitching before we really get nuts.

Alec: (apologies for being completely unrelated to prospects but) JUSTIN VERLANDER IS HOME! I have no idea if they’re doing a six man rotation when either Olson is healthy or Melton shoves in presumably Toledo to start the year but the prodigal son has returned!

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah this is cool. Stoked for Tigers fans, what a fun year coming up.

“Pork” Ribs: If you only see a guy a few times a year, what little things are you looking at to determine true talent level as opposed to results in those games?

Brendan Gawlowski: Looking for tools and traits. You want to see guys make good contact just to prove that the hand-eye, tracking, etc. are functional but otherwise you’re trying to project the player, not report the weather on how he looked in those five days.

Sam: Any favorite reads lately? Articles, books, etc. Always curious what non-baseball topics the FG staff is into.

Brendan Gawlowski: I just read “The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the C.I.A., and the Origins of America’s Invasion of Iraq” by Steve Coll. Really good.

JJ: Are the dates available somewhere for the prospect week articles? Like, labeled as Monday, Tuesday, etc

Brendan Gawlowski: We have a schedule and it’ll go sequentially based on what you see on the home page. I’m leery of promising a specific date on everything just b/c stuff happens and maybe we need to pull a switcheroo.

JJ: Justin Verlander pitched for the Tigers in the WS 20 (!) years ago

Brendan Gawlowski: Crazy.

loooooop: Did Aaron Judge singlehandedly change the way teams think about signing/drafting cartoonishly big guys?

Brendan Gawlowski: No. He’s a freak but there’s always been and going to be an interest in big tools.

RetireNutting: The Pirates say they’re going to give Konnor Griffin a shot at breaking camp with the club if he earns it but no 19 year old with no games above AA has ever done that. What odds would you give Griffin to be the opening day SS?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d be surprised but not shocked. Clearly has a path there soon.

MrMet: Are there any off-the-radar prospects who have at least debuted in A ball that you might bet a $1 on a serious breakout this season (like jumping into top 100 territory)?

Brendan Gawlowski: FG Chat, brought to you by FanDu—

Brendan Gawlowski: There’ll be plenty of A-ball guys on our T100 next week

Dodgers Blue: Brendan, do you believe Braxton Ashcraft has the chops to hold onto a spot in the starting rotation for the long haul?

Brendan Gawlowski: Needs to refine his secondaries and get stretched out. I think he could do it, I don’t know if PIT wants to use him that way. They like rolling guys 1-2x through.

Sid the Astros Kid: Hello, I was wondering if you could breakdown valuing prospects to established players? Ex: Like Paredes for the ‘Stros, they’re rumored to be shopping him. He’s an All Star level player, is that worth like a 50FV+ player and more?

Brendan Gawlowski: It depends on the player and his contract status. Paredes himself presents additional challenges because his fringy power and extreme pulled fly ball tendencies make him a borderline star in some environments.

Wethering Holts: In JJ’s write-up, James said he’d be a 60 FV if he were a solid SS, but given that he’ll likely play 2B with Winn at SS, he’s a 55. I understand the difference in positional values, but I’m a bit confused how a guy who could conceivably hack it as SS is given a ceiling of 50-grade D at 2B?

Brendan Gawlowski: Better question for James there but in general “hack it” covers a lot of 40/45 ground.

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s also not a clean translation between positions. You wouldn’t expect 45 SS to be exactly a 50 or 55 at 2B

killian: The average fastball velocity can’t keep going up forever……right? You’d think we’re hitting the limits of human anatomy as evidenced by the TJS situation

Brendan Gawlowski: Average can go up for a long time yet. That the max has barely budged tells us something though.

Juan Brito: What do oyou think the best possible outcome would be for Juan Brito this season? HUGE drop off in prospect ranking / outlook this year, but he still seems to be close to getting a call up…

Brendan Gawlowski: Hit tool maxes out and he’s a 2-3 win player.

Jack: A year from now, is David Shields or Kendry Chourio pushing top 100?

Brendan Gawlowski: One of them is pushing it right now

Key Flaw: I have a question about Dylan Beavers’ swing. I hear announcers and people talk about how short it is, but when I see it it seems…. off. Almost like it is not a full swing, like dropping the bat WIllie McGee style. Asthetically, it doesn’t do it for me and I don’t know why. Can you explain, as an evaluator/scout/prospect knowing person, what is it about his swing that seems off to me?

Brendan Gawlowski: The short finish/follow through is maybe what you’re talking about? Perfectly functional swing.

DR: Slightly related to the griffin break camp question. If he doesn’t break camp with Pittsburgh, does that make starting in AAA the default assumption?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would assume so. Some clubs (LAA comes to mind) more or less just skip AAA but PIT mostly hasn’t.

Jesus: Did Ralphy Valesquez unlock a new level at AA or was it more short sample size?

Brendan Gawlowski: He looked really good in High-A even when the numbers weren’t there.

T2: Looking back at J-Rod and Kelenic makes me realize how hard it is to predict the future of prospects. What have been the biggest thing that differentiated them? Ability/willingness to adopt to the MLB pitching?  Is that nearly impossible to measure at minors?

Brendan Gawlowski: Some of the risks we knew were baked into Kelenic’s profile — particularly the swing and miss and spin recognition — were worse than we thought. Intensity worked for and against him.

Gob Bleuth: What kind of prospect cost would a cj abrams deal set the blue jays back?

Brendan Gawlowski: Three years of control for a 3.5 WAR position player… A lot. Toronto could put together a depth package like what Texas did with Gore but they’re vulnerable to someone with a better headliner topping the offer.

JT: Any particular prospects you’re excited to see in the WBC? If a guy (say Michael Arroyo for Colombia) has some massive performances against MLB comp, how much weight does that carry?

Brendan Gawlowski: You hit on the kind of guy I’m most interested in from a prospect standpoint. I wouldn’t say it carries a ton of weight, small sample and all, but you’re hoping he’s not completely overwhelmed.

Colton: How often, if ever, does a hitter’s passivity play into their hit tool eval? Bazzana’s contact numbers show he should be a 55+ on the hit but he just doesn’t swing enough and gets caught in bad counts as a result, so the strike out numbers stay elevated. Would he be a guy that could stop the seeming backslide in rankings if he just became a more aggressive hitter?

Brendan Gawlowski: Really hard to dial it up. I’ve had a few hitting guys tell me that (contrary to what I’d thought) they’d rather work on reeling a guy in than trying to make him more aggressive.

Dodgers Blue: Crazy that the Rockies cut Yanquiel Fernández on waivers (only to get picked up by the Yankees and subsequently booted from their 40-man).  Just recently, Fangraphs had him ranked as the #4 prospect in the Rockies system.  Do you have any insight as to what may be going on?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah, this surprised me too. Rough showing at AAA in ’24 and the big leagues last year. Too early to give up on him though.

Strike!: Do you find it hard to get out of scouting mode if you’re catching a game for fun?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes.

ricky s: If the Angels’ philosophy is to draft MLB-ready guys and skyrocket them to the bigs at an alarming pace, who are the anti-Angels?

Brendan Gawlowski: Everybody is more aggressive than they were 10 years ago. Anecdotally, it feels like Seattle has seemed to let their hitters dominate a level an extra month or two more than the average club, but I don’t think there’s anyone who’s a huge outlier on that side.

rob: Given Schwellenbach’s injury, who would you like to see take that spot? Fuentes?

Brendan Gawlowski: Fuentes could use a little more seasoning. Want to see him get the FB to the glove side and throw the split more consistently.

Inspector Houlihan: I fell for Pedro Pineda, Yeison Morrobel, and Yordany de Los Santos.  I was convinced each would have impact power.  Where am I going wrong?

Brendan Gawlowski: Hitting is hard. This demographic of player is getting crushed by the lack of short season ball.

Angles: Speaking of Angels development philosophy, I randomly thought of Ryan Johnson the other day, so I looked him up and it turns out he finished the season in the minors… in high A. What are they doing over there???

Brendan Gawlowski: Johnson has elite deception and funk, I kinda get why they wanted to see if it played at the highest level. I don’t know if I’d have done it myself but easy for me to keyboard warrior that.

Dodgers Blue: I’m curious when you were scouting big speed guys, what exactly were you looking to come away with?  Time to get first-to-second?  Simple success rate stealing bases (although obviously a variable given pitcher/catcher they are facing)? Instincts on the bases?  Jumps on the pitcher?

Brendan Gawlowski: You want to see how the speed plays. You touched on some of that: home to first, first to third, home to second, etc. Instincts just as if not more important. And then defensively, how does the speed interact with the other components of the job. You wind up writing “speed plays down” a lot.

BP: Where would Roki Sasaki rank/grade out for you now?

Brendan Gawlowski: 50

Wintry Mix: Will there ever be meaningful baseball development in Europe, enough where certain countries start having a reliable talent pipeline?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m skeptical. Even the countries that kinda sorta play it have so many alternatives. Italy is in the cricket world cup right now, for instance.

Kate: Is Top 100 dropping tomorrow?  Thought that’s what was said, but maybe I misunderstood.  Either way, really looking forward to it!  One of my favorite reads of the year!

Brendan Gawlowski: T100 will be Monday.

Prospect Week!!: Thanks for all the work! What article / bit of work are you most excited to share? Are there any pieces you think will shock or surprise us readers??

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll have a piece Thursday on some of the lessons I took from scouting the complex, with some commentary on how one particularly rough report wound up being a long-term positive for me. Was fun to write something other than a list.

Brendan Gawlowski: Eric will have his “how’s my driving” which is always a favorite of mine. Even though he’s way too hard on himself.

Bryan: Do you think short season A ball will return?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, we’re going the other way.

Mr. Burrito: Prospect ranking has been a cottage industry for long enough that we must have a fairly massive data set that could tell us the hit/miss rates for unaffiliated scouting groups such as Fangraphs, the Athletic, etc.. In other words, there must be enough rank-related data that we can answer this question: What % of prospects graded at, say, 50FV by the Athletic (or whomever) go on to produce 10 WAR (or 0, or 30 or whatever) in MLB? I’m wondering if MLB player development departments do that kind of thing? Or is the industry dynamic enough — with improvements happening quickly enough — that such an exercise would be lame?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s good to audit yourself and your department regularly. Results, the proof in the pudding, can be part of that equation… But just looking at “who was most right x number of years ago” is not the way I’d go about evaluating who can provide me the best information right now.

Brendan Gawlowski: I think that applies for both teams and public sites

Brendan Gawlowski: Among other things: What does FG’s or BA’s track hit rate from 2018 matter if there’s been a big shift in personnel?

Zein: Emil Morales looks like a monster in the making. Is peak Austin Riley a fair comp?

Brendan Gawlowski: If you mean “good corner IF who hits 30+ homers several times” sure, but the specific comp doesn’t light me up.

CrosbyBaseball: Does Atlanta have any outfield prospects that could be ready by the time they lose Profar and Yaz (after 2027)?

Brendan Gawlowski: They’ll be one of my first lists after prospect week. Suffice to say: they’re really thin on bats right now.

Naylor Sailor: My thought is that with Donovan onboard, only one of Cole Young or Colt Emerson makes the team (barring injuries). Who is your pick?

Brendan Gawlowski: Emerson

Power vs Contact: Two high school draft prospects, one has 80 contact 20 power and the other has 20 contact 80 power, every other tool is identical. Which do you choose? Would your answer change if it was 70/30 or 60/40?

Brendan Gawlowski: If those are the future projections we’re in trouble with both of these guys.

DC: Everyone talks about depth in a system, but is all depth created equal? The Brewers and Cards for example: one drafts more high schoolers than anyone else, and the other only college.

Brendan Gawlowski: Depth is not created equal but there are plenty of ways for depth to be valuable. Do you have a lot of pitchers who could be sixth or seventh inning relievers like NYY? That’s great. Do you have a bunch of risky but high upside bats like Seattle? Different kind of depth, but that’s useful too. Do you have just so. many. guys. like AZ? Well, one of them probably exceeds their projection in a big way and that’s also great.

Guest: Is it prospect week if it spans multiple weeks lol

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d be in on Prospect Fortnight

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is there any team that misevaluates their pitching more than Baltimore? Albernaz just said Baz’s upside is a “Cy Young award winner.” Uhhhh you sure about that Craig??

Brendan Gawlowski: Not crazy. I don’t think he’ll do it but, well, Porcello and Ray have one on the mantle in the last ten years…

Guest: Sorry hope that didn’t sound harsh ! Very appreciative of the work, only a joke

Brendan Gawlowski: Not at all!

Jarlin Marlin: When do you think the team lists be all be released?

Brendan Gawlowski: End of April if things go well. Could drift into May.

Inspector Houlihan: I knew I was at the bottom of the barrel and scraping it, when I brought you on the force, Gawlowski!  What do you know about anything? You probably had your bread buttered on both sides since the day you were born!

Brendan Gawlowski: I get a question/comment like this every week and I don’t really know what to make of it. But it does seem like a good time to skedaddle. Thanks for stopping by!