Wake up, babe, new Schrödinger’s cat just dropped: Cardi B exists in a simultaneous state of both performing at the Super Bowl Halftime Show and not performing at the Super Bowl Halftime Show … until observed settled by prediction markets.
Confused yet? So were many people who placed bets — or bought “event contracts” — on whether she would perform. At least one trader on Kalshi filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the company resolved the market on Cardi B’s appearance.
Because … did she “perform”? Is dancing performing? Is lip-syncing performing? Some say, obviously yes, but others say that by the rules of engagement as spelled out on the markets, her appearance didn’t rise to the level of “performing.”
These event contracts work like this: a market lists a future event, and users can buy a “yes” or “no” contract on that event. So, for the question of “Who will perform at the Big Game?” as listed on Kalshi, you could buy a “yes” or “no” on several different performers, including musicians like Cardi B, Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin.
All three of these musicians did, in fact, appear on the halftime show stage with Bad Bunny. But users contested how Kalshi and Polymarket resolved the Cardi B market specifically. While Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin had solo singing parts, Cardi B danced with other celebrities and backup dancers, and although she appeared to be singing, she wasn’t mic’d up or given a specific singing role.
(Just to give you an idea of how divisive this was: My editor and I can’t even agree! I say she performed! He says, and I quote, “She was not a guest performer!” I would ask everyone to weigh in via the comments, but that would actually just tip us all over the edge of the dystopian cliff.)
Kalshi eventually decided the answer was ambiguous and refunded participants by settling their contracts at the last traded price.
A Kalshi spokesperson told us that people trading “No” on Cardi B made 74 cents per dollar traded, while “Yes” holders got the other 26 cents, adding “Kalshi keeps none of this, we just distribute the funds per our rules.” (Essentially, while everyone got refunded, most traders likely received a different amount than they invested.)
Kalshi saw over $47.3 million bet on this market, and each transaction includes fees. Prediction markets don’t make money as sportsbooks do; fees comprise the route to profitability for companies such as Kalshi. It is not clear if the fees were also refunded. The market was available through the halftime performance, even after Cardi B was sighted. Polymarket had over $10 million in activity on a similar market.
So, in the end, how did the prediction markets define “performance”?
According to a Kalshi spokesperson, “singing and dancing counted as a performance, but just dancing in the background did not. In the as-broadcast performance, Cardi B was dancing and mouthing words to the song, but it was unclear if she was ‘singing.’” Thus, they defaulted to refunding traders.
On Polymarket, the fine print originally defined the event simply as “Cardi B performs live and in person….” This was updated on game day with additional context: “A qualifying performance includes participation in the halftime show without singing so long as the aforementioned criteria are met.” The market was resolved as a “Yes,” then disputed, with a final review pending on Wednesday. For those interested in the final judgment, Polymarket has a countdown clock on its website.
By contrast, on FanDuel Sportsbook in Ontario, the question was framed as who would “make a special guest appearance.” When asked by The Athletic how they defined a yes or no on this question, a FanDuel spokesperson said that the settlement clause was defined as, “the person(s) who physically make an appearance on stage alongside Bad Bunny at the SB LX Halftime Show. Must be shown on broadcast.”
Per that settlement, FanDuel paid out all customers who selected Cardi B, Karol G, Young Miko, Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.
Fanatics also offered this market on their prediction platform, which is powered by Crypto.com. The verbiage on the market included the word “perform,” and the fine print said, “‘performing’ is defined as appearing on stage or as part of the official production to sing, speak, or dance. The mere presence of [Performer] in the stadium as a spectator, sideline guest, or in any other non-performing capacity does not qualify.” They settled the market as “Yes,” Cardi B did perform.
Overall, prediction markets had a massive day with the Super Bowl, which is consistently the most bet-on single-day sporting event in the U.S. Kalshi reported a daily record high on game day, with a 2,700 percent year-over-year increase in Super Bowl market activity compared to last year, with more than $1 billion in total trading volume.
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts” after explaining that some deposits were delayed because of the amount of traffic.