I have come to the conclusion that Newcastle United need to be sacrificing this match.
I don’t mean deliberately losing.
That wouldn’t be acceptable under any circumstances.
What I mean is, Newcastle United not throwing as much emphasis or resources into this particular game.
For the greater good this needs to happen.
Can you guess which one I might mean…?
The next four Newcastle United matches:
Saturday 14 February – Aston Villa v Newcastle (5.45pm) BBC One, iPlayer, TNT Sports 3 and discovery+ (FA Cup)
Wednesday 18 February – Qarabag FK v Newcastle (5.45pm) TNT Sports (Champions League play-off first leg)
Saturday 21 February – Man City v Newcastle (8pm) TNT Sports
Tuesday 24 February – Newcastle v Qarabag FK (8pm) Amazon Prime (Champions League play-off second leg)
Yes fellow Newcastle United fans, no prizes for guessing that I mean Manchester City.
It is a game too far. It is also one that we will very likely lose whatever team Eddie Howe sends out.
So when we go to the Etihad, I think a case of needing to look after as many of our key players as possible, certainly not playing anybody who isn’t physically fine.
The way the matches have worked out, it has fallen relatively well for both FA Cup and Champions League challenges that are upcoming.
That dominant win at Spurs was on Tuesday, giving Eddie Howe and his players four days before facing Villa in the FA Cup. Aston Villa were very lucky to win late on 1-0 last night at home to Brighton, who had been far the better team. Unai Emery and his players now facing United less than 72 hours later.
Also a bonus then that the Qarabag away game is four days later, after Villa, rather than on the Tuesday.
As I say though, Manchester City the sticking point. Not saying throwing that Premier League match but play some kids if necessary, give Shahar and Neave their first ever starts, play Alexa Murphy, give them a chance to shine and at the same time protect some essential first choice players for the other challenges.
I have seen some Newcastle United fans suggesting that Qarabag will be a pushover, that Eddie Howe can maybe play a weakened team in one or both of these Champions League matches.
I don’t think the facts back this way of thinking whatsoever. As well as winning 3-2 away at Benfica, Qarabag scored at least two goals in each of their four home Champions League matches, winning 3-2 against Eintracht Frankfurt and 2-0 over Copenhagen, as well as drawing 2-2 against Chelsea and losing 4-2 to Ajax.
No room at all for complacency against our play-off opponents.
I believe Newcastle United need to throw everything at Aston Villa in the FA Cup and the same against Qarabag, whilst treating the Man City game as outlined above, then see where we are at when we get to the end of the month (Everton at home in the Premier League on Saturday 28 February).
There is a precedent
Just short of a year ago, Newcastle United were less than three weeks away from their Carabao Cup final against Liverpool.
Only 18 days before that final, Newcastle played at Anfield in the Premier League. Alexander Isak was left out of the matchday squad due to what was described as a ‘slight groin issue’, something that was later disputed. Eddie Howe widely praised by Newcastle United fans as a cunning ploy that then helped NUFC win at Wembley.
Anyway, Newcastle lost 2-0 at Anfield and then only four days later Eddie Howe made six changes as United lost at home to Brighton in the FA Cup. Even though NUFC still arguably played well enough to have won this, some big decisions from match officials also going against them, many Newcastle fans angry that the strongest team hadn’t been put out which should have more or less guaranteed progress in the FA Cup.
I think that this perfectly sums up the issue.
Most Newcastle United fans will generally agree that at times you have to prioritise certain games over others (especially when still competing on multiple fronts), yet when it comes to the team for any match being announced, many of these same fans will then be angry that the strongest possible team hasn’t been selected…
My belief is that what Eddie Howe did back then, with his selections for the Liverpool away PL match and Brighton at home in the FA Cup, made the difference in Newcastle United winning the Carabao Cup AND qualifying for the Champions League.
How so?
Eddie Howe and Newcastle United followed up those consecutive defeats to the Scousers and Seagulls, with six straight wins.
West Ham defeated away in the Premier League and then six days later the win at Wembley over Liverpool. Then with no FA Cup impacting, United returned after the March 2025 international break with a grinding out 2-1 home win over Brentford, a 3-0 away at Leicester, before hammering Man U 4-1 and Palace 5-0.
Due to the loss to Brighton, instead of an FA Cup quarter-final, Newcastle had their cup final victory parade on Saturday 29 March 2025. More importantly, it meant they didn’t have to play a match a few days before what I believe was the key game that ended up helping us get Champions League qualification. After the demands of that cup final win and then key players off playing for their countries, I think without the extra recovery and preparation time, Newcastle wouldn’t have won 2-1 against Brentford on Wednesday 2 April.
Indeed, I remember at the time a lot of journalists and Newcastle fans predicting that after the trophy win, there would be an inevitable fading out of form the rest of the season. Instead, Eddie Howe was able to get them going again and after the cup final, the next eight Premier League matches brought six wins, one draw and just one defeat.
Following the trophy win, at that point Newcastle United were still outside the Champions League qualifying places in the Premier League.
The final 2024/25 Premier League table saw Newcastle United end up fifth on 66 points, Aston Villa sixth on same points but worse goal difference, Forest seventh on 65 points.
Whilst Newcastle United had been knocked out of the FA Cup by Brighton in the fifth round, both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest ended up losing semi finalists at Wembley on the last weekend of April 2025.
Considering just how tight that final Premier League table ended up in May 2025, my feeling is that for sure, if it had been Newcastle United getting to Wembley in the FA Cup as well, then Eddie Howe and his team would have ended up falling short in the Premier League. No top five and no Champions League this season.
Back to the present day
I am not suggesting gifting a Premier League win to Man City and I am definitely not writing off all chance of getting top five this season.
However, these next two weeks are for me, all about doing everything to get into the FA Cup fifth round and the last 16 of the Champions League. With hopefully a scratch team getting a point somehow at the Etihad.
As I mentioned earlier, getting anything at the Etihad would be unlikely whatever team we put out. Target the Villa and Qarabag matches in the other competitions and then they are followed by two big home Premier League matches against Everton and Man U, win those two and Newcastle United are back competing for a Champions League place.
What I think is vital, is that whatever team selection Eddie Howe makes, for any match, there is no ridiculous over the top hysteria from fans.
Eddie Howe is the one who has all the key information, especially as regards the physical state of the players.
Eddie Howe also happens to be a top class football manager, unlike the trolls and attention/money seeking NUFC YouTubers, who were no doubt last in line to be picked to play as kids and whose managerial ‘ability’ is on a par with their playing quality when kids.
Eddie Howe and his Newcastle United players have a huge challenge in these final three months of the season. It still could end up a spectacular season, to follow up the 2024/25 season, which was…spectacular.
Eddie Howe and the team have my full support in these last three months of the season. After all, why would I consider anything else.
You don’t have a post-mortem whilst there is still a heartbeat, the summer will be the time for that, for all of those inside Newcastle United to plan for next season and the seasons beyond that.