The NBA’s 2019 lottery reform flattened the odds for top picks. Since then, 11 of 28 top-four selections have gone to teams with seventh-or-worse lottery odds. The 2026 draft class — featuring Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cam Boozer — has intensified the tanking conversation.
11 of 28 top-four picks went to teams with worse odds
The 2019 lottery reform was designed to reduce the incentive to tank by flattening the odds for top picks. The result has been different. Since the reform, 11 of 28 top-four picks have gone to teams with seventh-or-worse lottery odds. Teams that finished with the worst records haven’t been guaranteed top selections. The reform changed the math but hasn’t eliminated the tanking strategy — more teams now see value in pursuing bad records.
The 2026 draft class includes Peterson, Dybantsa, and Boozer
The 2026 draft is considered one of the strongest classes in years. Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, and Duke big man Cam Boozer are among the top prospects. The presence of potential franchise-altering players increases the incentive for struggling teams to prioritize draft positioning over current wins. A weak roster this season could mean a generational talent next season.
The lottery wheel proposal would rotate draft positions
One proposed solution is the “lottery wheel,” which would assign draft positions on a rotating basis. Every team would know when their top pick was coming years in advance. The system would eliminate the connection between losing and draft position entirely. Other proposals include harsher penalties for tanking — fines or forfeited picks — though enforcement would be difficult to implement.
Abolishing the draft has been suggested
Some have proposed eliminating the draft altogether and allowing players to choose their destinations. This would shift the focus from accumulating losses to building environments that attract talent. Organizations would need to compete for players rather than compete for draft position. Adam Silver faces pressure to address the issue. The current system ties losing to future success — and teams are responding accordingly.