The US market is “looking a bit messy” due to American foreign policy and the perception of the country worldwide, a bike industry insider has warned.
In an interview about market conditions, Maxe Faschina, head of product at Standert Bicycles in Germany told Cycling Weekly that “it’s going to be a struggle”.
“The appeal for American brands in China is slowing rapidly, so people in China are not buying American brands anymore,” Faschina stated.
However, this extends beyond Europe. “German brands will ditch SRAM as a spec for their bikes, because of politics,” he said.
Oversupply meets a cooling China
Faschina said the impact on the Chinese market is being underestimated.
“Chinese people of our generation listen to rock music, pop culture and have the same influences we had… Their kids are skateboarding, some snowboarding,” he said. “I don’t think you can brush off what’s happening in the US at the moment and I think it won’t have a huge impact on US brands. Nike or Apple, maybe not so much, but Specialized or Trek?”
For US bike companies, that presents a unique vulnerability. Cycling has long traded on lifestyle, aspiration, and cultural cachet. American brands, in particular, have sold a vision of freedom, adventure, and West Coast cool. The dynamic shift we’re witnessing is meaningful.
The double whammy for US giants
The biggest American bike brands, like Specialized and Trek, are struggling with the negative global perception and the after-effects of high inventory levels since the pandemic at the same time. Other bike brands, like Surly, have made a pointed move to criticise the situation in the US under Trump, putting clear water between them and the negative vibe.
“The brand appeal of the USA is really not good at the moment. Surly and Wolftooth and all these smaller American brands came out with a statement after Minnesota. I think globally that probably helps them. I don’t know about the US domestic market. It’s just a very, very big problem, what is happening.”
With the addition of a cooling Chinese domestic market and the resultant surge of surplus production capacity, which industry figures are already discussing, it might be a perfect storm. Mega factories can’t switch off overnight, so as domestic demand weakens, Chinese factories will look outward and push more carbon frames into Europe.
“Lots of carbon bike frames are going to hit the market,” Faschina predicts. “That supply has to go somewhere.”
The supply chain impact
SRAM, as a dominant US components supplier, may not be immune, as it sits at the center of the global bike ecosystem. Faschina’s claim that German brands could delist American components may be conjecture, but if it were to happen its impact would be meaningful.
“You see it in the Olympics, it’s not a small issue, people care about it. And it’s not like people in China or Asia are on a different planet. We all share the same set of ethics.”
“If pricing pressure intensifies, everyone feels it,” Faschina added. “High-end margins get squeezed first.”
“Chinese brands are getting stronger and stronger. Chinese brands are actually sometimes of even better quality than American or some of the bigger European brands, because they’re produced in China, not Vietnam. The only thing the Chinese can improve now is their branding and marketing, and that’s just gonna take, what, a couple of years?”
On the marketing, he argues it’s almost a moot point now: “Look at Factor. A lot of people think it’s British because of its roots, or American, or Canadian I heard the other day. No, it’s Taiwanese. With investment from the Chinese.”