By Martin Graham
The long-held belief that 40 points secures top-flight status is being debated once more as the season heads into its final stretch. Although often treated as the comfort zone, that total has not actually been required to avoid relegation since the 2010-11 campaign.
Only on a handful of earlier occasions were clubs sent down despite reaching or exceeding that figure, most notably in the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Even so, the current balance in the lower half suggests the margin for error may be shrinking again.
With a dozen fixtures still to play, the gap between several sides remains narrow, increasing the possibility that a higher total will be needed to guarantee another year in the division.
West Ham leading the late push
Sitting 18th, West Ham are mounting a serious challenge to climb out of trouble. They trail Nottingham Forest by just three points, while Tottenham, one place higher, is only slightly further ahead.
The Hammers have collected 24 points so far, a stronger return than most teams previously occupying that position at the same stage. Their recent run has been particularly encouraging, with three victories contributing to a haul of 10 points from five matches.
History offers some optimism too. In several past seasons when they were similarly placed, West Ham produced strong finishes, often taking at least 15 points from their final 12 outings to preserve their Premier League status.
Struggles elsewhere and a tense finish ahead
Momentum is not shared across the bottom half. Tottenham have gathered only four points from their last nine games, while Forest, now without a manager, have won twice in 10 attempts.
Further up, Brighton and Crystal Palace are not entirely comfortable either. Brighton have managed just one league success since late November, and Palace have also found wins hard to come by, most recently surrendering a two-goal advantage before defeat.
Given West Ham’s remaining schedule and their tendency for late surges, the closing weeks promise real drama. Should their improvement continue, the total required for survival may edge closer to that once-mythical 40-point mark.