For much of the winter, the Premier League relegation picture felt close to settled. West Ham, Wolves and Burnley were drifting, results were thinning out and the familiar gap between the bottom three and the rest appeared to be forming on schedule. That certainty has not survived into February.
Instead of separating, the bottom of the table has compressed. Teams once written off are picking up points. Others who thought they had done enough are beginning to glance over their shoulders. The long-held assumption that 36 points guarantees survival no longer feels secure.
A relegation fight that refuses to settle
West Ham’s revival has reignited the conversation. Nine points from the last four league matches only tell part of the story; how those points were achieved matters more. Nuno’s side have seen off Spurs, Sunderland and Burnley, including a clean-sheet win at Turf Moor, which could end up mattering on goal difference.
And it has not just been West Ham. Leeds have added seven points and Nottingham Forest have collected five over this period, both against opponents averaging more than a point per game. Crystal Palace also halted the rot with a vital win over rivals Brighton in early February, suggesting a new direction of travel.
When clubs at the bottom begin collecting points together rather than in isolation, survival becomes a race rather than a collapse.
Of course, Burnley’s position remains far bleaker. Draws against Liverpool and Spurs briefly hinted at a route back into contention, but defeat to Sunderland reopened the gap in a fixture many pre-match previews had identified as a potential swing game. Eleven points is a daunting distance with 13 matches remaining. Wolves still look the most likely to go down, though recent draws have at least spared them the indignity of chasing the Premier League’s lowest-ever points total.
Why 36 points may no longer be enough
The 36-point mark has long acted as football’s comfort blanket. Reach it and, most seasons, you breathe easier. Since the league settled into a 20-team format, that tally has usually been enough.
This season does not feel built that way.
Across the Premier League era, 38 points has offered far greater security, while 40 almost always does the job. But averages flatten reality. When too many teams refuse to fold at once, the line moves, sometimes uncomfortably high.
West Ham know that lesson better than most. In 2002–03, the Hammers were relegated with 42 points. Sunderland and Bolton have both gone down on 40. Those outliers matter when the bottom third stays competitive.
Right now, West Ham are on 23 points, Forest are on 26, Leeds and Tottenham are on 29. Crystal Palace hover just above on 32. None of those totals offer genuine comfort with a third of the season still to play.
Where the margins tighten further
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Fixture difficulty will decide the table
Momentum alone will not be enough. Fixture difficulty is about to bite.
Opta’s modelling shows West Ham, Leeds and Tottenham all facing demanding runs. Trips to Old Trafford and Anfield loom, alongside meetings with Manchester City packed into tight windows.
Leeds’ recent lift has bought breathing space, but away games at Chelsea and Aston Villa followed by Pep Guardiola’s resurgent City at Elland Road, will test how real that progress is. There is little room for drifting through those matches, hoping others slip up and Daniel Farke will know as much.
Tottenham’s situation is no less awkward. Injuries have stripped depth, Cristian Romero is sidelined and Newcastle and Arsenal arrive in quick succession. Spurs may look clear on paper, but paper rarely survives February intact. When form stalls and fixtures bite, gaps shrink quickly.
Forest’s schedule looks marginally kinder, yet games against fellow strugglers often carry heavier psychological weight. Lose those, and momentum evaporates.
Psychology, not panic, will define survival
Relegation is rarely decided by talent alone. It turns on acceptance.
Teams that recognise the scrap early tend to survive. Those waiting for clarity usually run out of time. West Ham’s upturn has been instructive. The Hammers are no longer playing to protect a point. Leeds have shown similar intent. Forest, under pressure, have stopped chasing games recklessly.
That collective hardening is why the points total required for safety may drift closer to 38 or even 40 this season.
There is still danger everywhere. Wolves remain in real trouble. Burnley need something close to a miracle. Beyond that, certainty is thin on the ground.
In a Premier League season like 2026, confidently calling who is going down already would probably say more about nerve than analysis. Survival will not hinge on one result or one weekend. It will be decided by who can keep finding just a little bit more.