Steve Tandy has made changes for his team to face Scotland
Taine Plumtree during Wales training after being named in the starting XV(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)
Last year’s match against Scotland was the first time in six years Wales had named an unnamed starting XV, as interim head coach Matt Sherratt headed to Murrayfield riding the wave of an improved performance against Ireland.
A year on, any sort of feelgood factor is in short supply. Wales have conceded 302 points in the last six games, haemorrhaging over 100 in the first two matches of the Six Nations alone.
Not only is a winning formula elusive right now, simply a competitive one remains out of reach at the moment.
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Changes to the starting side are expected now.
In the autumn, changes were part and parcel of the nature of the campaign. The teams to face Argentina and New Zealand were, injuries aside, very similar. But the clash with Japan sandwiched between the two, as well as the out-of-window game with South Africa, naturally brought some new faces.
This Six Nations, though, has seen consistent tweaking from week-to-week.
After the hammering at Twickenham, Steve Tandy made four changes each to his starting XV and bench. It’s a similar story again this week – albeit with one less change on the replacements’ pine. You can read all the team news here.
Tandy is still searching for the right combination – all while having to build from foundations built on sand and take the learnings from hammering after hammering.
Last week, it was the front-row, midfield and back-row getting switched around. This week, there’s changes in the second-row, 10 jersey, back-three. Oh, and the back-row again.
After Olly Cracknell replaced Josh Macleod following the first match, Taine Plumtree has now taken the place of Cracknell.
To say Tandy and Wales haven’t found a back-row balance yet would not be unfair. It’s clear to see that a jackal threat isn’t high on the agenda, given Tommy Reffell’s continued absence from the squad.
Instead, Wales want a defence built on slowing down ruck speed through tackle choice. Of course, the fact that Jac Morgan is injured doesn’t help.
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The Ospreys captain, given his rounded game, essentially fills all the voids in this Wales back-row. A hefty carrier, a breakdown threat and a genuine world-class player.
Without him, Wales are struggling to cover all the bases. Alex Mann is a grafter, capable of getting under the skin of the opposition, but he’s not a traditional fetcher like others to have worn the seven jersey before him.
Plumtree is an ideal athlete for Test rugby, but six yellow cards in 14 appearances this season cannot be categorised as anything other than extremely daft. How on earth can you expect to be worth anything at Test level when you’ve already spent half-an-hour on the sidelines at international level.
Aaron Wainwright, at least, is back to his levels from 2024 – albeit largely fighting against an almighty tide.
Perhaps, against other teams, Wales will turn to jackal threats – with Josh Macleod the option available in the squad – but for now, Wales seem content to go into matches without a traditional openside.
They are expecting, as has been the case with clashes with Scotland in recent years, for it to be fast-paced. Maybe then, this is the back-row to live with that – although you feel Wales need as many ways as possible to slow down the opposition as possible.
The continuity in midfield should at least help in that regard, with Eddie James growing into the game against France on both sides of the ball after Wales were too passive early on in defence.
However, there’s a change at fly-half – whether that helps the midfield or not remains to be seen.
Sam Costelow hasn’t started a Wales Test match since last summer. According to stats expert Russ Petty, of the 11 he’s started for Wales, he’s had nine different centre combinations.
That hasn’t helped a fly-half who is perhaps the very definition of a confidence player. And, with Wales in the last two years, that has been in short supply.
Some might think it harsh to take Dan Edwards out of the jersey just two games into the campaign. The Ospreys fly-half has had seven straight matches in the role, though.
He does feel, as much as anything, a victim of the role he’s playing. Wales are a kick-heavy team at the minute – albeit not as kick-heavy as the teams they played.
That’s an important note. England and France kicked more than Wales, but they kicked better.
Edwards probably pays the price for that, as well as some defensive issues. But, again, he’s playing with a ball-playing 12 outside him, which hasn’t made life easy.
Costelow is perhaps more comfortable with that type of 12, as was Jarrod Evans off the bench. Evans is clearly seen as an impact player for Wales, given he starts on the bench once again.
There are obviously merits for Costelow starting in every facet of the game. Defensively, he’s nuggety, while his kicking game is decent.
He takes the ball to the line nicely and can make an attack tick.
The problem, as has been the case, is how he handles the occasion. Edwards, for all he has and hasn’t done in the jersey so far, has a swagger of sorts.
You sense mistakes don’t bother him all that much. Onto the next thing.
Costelow seems a quieter individual, one more burdened by the pressure of the jersey at times. And, let’s be frank, he’s copped a fair amount of vitriol in the past two years.
The same sort of bile that saw the likes of Rhys Priestland and Alex Cuthbert leave Welsh rugby’s goldfish bowl – and they were playing in winning teams.
Costelow doesn’t even have that luxury. You’d be a fool to believe that, should a kick go long or a pass go awry, someone won’t be calling for his head immediately on social media.
Perhaps that’s the real test for Costelow this weekend, dealing with the slings and arrows of the 10 jersey.
The other changes are intriguing.
Gabriel Hamer-Webb deserves his chance and will bring something to the aerial game, while it’s a big match for Ben Carter in the second-row.
Adam Beard’s omission is a big call, but Carter has started just eight matches for Wales since making his debut in 2021.
He’s won just one of those. That’s won’t be the measuring stick this weekend, either, but the Dragons lock needs to take the next step now.
As a second-row group, Wales have a lot of players who go through a decent amount of work, but don’t produce many big moments.
Even Dafydd Jenkins, who is capable of those moments as he’s shown this season, has perhaps prioritised quantity over quality when it comes to his numbers.
Carter, in his first Six Nations start, needs to show he belongs in the starting side. With Teddy Williams injured, Wales are desperately short of genuine starting options beyond Beard and Jenkins otherwise.
At the minute, Tandy is a man trying to build a jigsaw puzzle with, through no fault of his own, little idea what the final idea looks like.
Every time he thinks he’s got a part of the picture nailed down, some of the pieces don’t seem to fit. In that sense, Tandy hasn’t made as many changes as he might have.
For a team that has been hammered two weeks in a row, for a team on a six-day turnaround – there’s ample reason to rip things up completely.
But for a man desperately trying to build foundations while also putting the house together, Tandy simply can’t afford to do that right now.
Wales: Louis Rees-Zammit; Gabriel Hamer-Webb, Eddie James, Joe Hawkins, Josh Adams; Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams; Rhys Carre, Dewi Lake, (captain), Tomas Francis, Dafydd Jenkins, Ben Carter, Taine Plumtree, Alex Mann, Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: Ryan Elias, Nicky Smith, Archie Griffin, Freddie Thomas, James Botham, Kieran Hardy, Jarrod Evans, Blair Murray.