It is inevitable that teams will somewhat disguise their true performance in pre-season. After all, the objective of testing is to collect data and understand your package – rather than set fastest laps and top the timing sheets.
Still, it is always worth noting the measures teams are taking to obscure their pace. This is particularly relevant during a regulation change, where teams are more vigilant than usual components that could be on the limit of the regulations.
Ultimately, setting fast times can draw unnecessary attention and encourage rivals to scrutinise your package.
Mercedes’ strong showing in Barcelona, for example, likely motivated the other manufacturers in their calls FIA intervention against their compression ratio solution.
With that said, the secrecy surrounding Red Bull’s package is one of the surprises of testing.
Early observations of the top four teams
Generally speaking, Red Bull were not expected to be contenders this season. At least, this was the common narrative before testing was underway.
Team principal Laurent Mekies warned at Red Bull’s 2026 launch that the first months of the season would be painful. The Frenchman anticipated the challenges of his team making its own power units for the first time.
Surprisingly, just one month later, this pessimistic warning does not appear to have been necessary.
In terms of reliability, both Red Bull and their second team VCARB have enjoyed very smooth running. Focusing on the engine front, only a few sporadic issues have emerged throughout pre-season testing.
This has this allowed the Milton Keynes outfit to collect valuable data about their power unit. Beyond this, however, the RB22’s extensive trouble-free running is evidence in itself about the engine’s longevity.
Perhaps more impressively, the engine assembled by Red Bull Powertrains is not just seen as reliable. The power unit is also highly potent.
Understandably, when testing began, Red Bull were not focused on turning their engine down and ‘hiding’ its performance. This is why on the first day of testing, the RB22 regularly went fastest in the speed traps – capturing the paddock’s attention.
By the conclusion of day 1, however, the Austrian outfit realised they were in a far better position than even they forecasted.
Since then, both Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar have consistently been slowest in the speed traps. The prevailing view is that this is no accident – but instead an intentional effort from Red Bull to avoid scrutiny.
Speaking in Bahrain, Williams team principal James Vowles touched on this observation when assessing the front-runners:
“It really does depend on the day [who is fastest], and there are games being played.
“Red Bull looked really good until we spoke about their power unit – then they’ve turned it down quite a bit since then.
“Ferrari? Well done to them. They’re coming up with great innovations and they are moving forward, and I think they are competitive.
“Mercedes came out the box really strong, and they’ve been strong all day. You can’t discount them.
“What I’m saying is even within the paddock right now, depending on what games people are playing on power unit and fuel, it’s hard to tell.
“Then on top of that, I would add that you’re going to see, more than ever before, swings from circuit to circuit. Based on the characteristics of the power unit and car teams have come up with.
“So even it today Ferrari could win a race here, that doesn’t mean they will in Melbourne.”
Red Bull an unknown heading into Australia
Of course, teams can slow themselves down so much in testing. A fast car, irrespective of fuel loads and engine modes, will still demonstrate positive characteristics during pre-season.
Red Bull’s RB22 falls into this category. Despite a relative scarcity of headline lap-times, the car’s aerodynamic platform is very solid.
Whilst observations from testing are limited, the RB22 is proving to be a predictable and solid machine from a mechanical and stability perspective.
Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar’s comments have both been optimistic, with Hadjar admitting that Red Bull are in better shape than anticipated. Of course, this positivity does not mean the team see themselves as favourites for Australia.
Verstappen in particular is convinced that Mercedes are going to turn up their engine significantly when the season begins.
Still, it seems clear that Red Bull’s own power unit puts them firmly in the mix. Aside from the eye-catching top speeds reached by the RB22, rivals have observed the efficiency of the Austrian engine.
The consensus is that Red Bull’s power unit is extremely fast at recycling and recharging electrical energy. This means the RB22 can sustain higher speeds and deploy more energy throughout the lap – whilst some manufacturers deplete their electrical reserves more quickly.
It must be emphasised that all of the traditional top four teams are in reasonably good shape. Unless there is a massive surprise, there will be familiar faces in Q3 at the Australian GP.
Nevertheless, there is no denying that Red Bull have adapted to life as a manufacturer more smoothly than anticipated.
Some teams might have expected the Austrian outfit to take a few years to re-establish themselves at the front – but all evidence suggests that Max Verstappen will again feature at the sharp end of the field in 2026.