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Stone on Marner, not being a fan of single elimination tournaments and knowing the odds: Leaflets

Stone on Marner, not being a fan of single elimination tournaments and knowing the odds: Leaflets

Stone on Marner, not being a fan of single elimination tournaments and knowing the odds: Leaflets

With the NHL being shut down, I too have shut myself down from hockey, but with the NHL returning, I too have returned to the home office and am ready to force some Toronto Maple Leafs takes.

Mark Stone in the familiar trope of teammates sticking up for Marner

Mitch Marner had a hell of moment with his overtime winner. And just like the Four Nations, Mitch Marner once again shows up for Team Canada. Mitch Marner is also a very skilled hockey player.

That being said, Marner largely not showing up in the playoffs for the Maple Leafs is absolutely something that has happened and something that Mark Stone might also get to experience with Marner as a teammate in Vegas.

As fun as it is to call out Leafs fans or media as the problem in Toronto, the fact is that Marner was not a big game player for the Maple Leafs and the fact that the Olympics and Four Nations lack the physical intensity and come with an all-star supporting cast make things a bit different than a club hockey situation.

In the NHL, Marner needs to be “the guy” for his team and doesn’t have three other equally skilled lines that could potentially get things done. There is a lot more pressure. There’s also the small matter of physical play being more elevated in the NHL playoffs when refs will sit on their whistles compared to the Olympics. And for good measure a seven game series where adapting styles to specifically counter Marner in the NHL is very different than a single game elimination short tournament of teams that have temporarily been constructed.

My guess, Mark Stone is going to learn about Mitch Marner the hard way in April.

Best on best tournaments

After a long wait the NHL is finally back at the Olympics and with that comes an opportunity to find things to complain about.

This isn’t about the quality of hockey being played, it’s the overall structure of the tournament and my old curmudgeon take that multi-game finals are superior to single game eliminations.

Some of this stems from the fact that my hockey fandom is largely a product of the 1987 Canada Cup and that even a best of three series either sets up a decisive 2-0 champion, or creates a situation where one bad game or one other worldly game isn’t a deciding factor. I’m not a miracle on ice guy, unless that miracle extends over multiple days.

Sports like baseball, hockey, and basketball that rely on longer seasons and long postseason series to determine winners should mirror that format as much as possible and with hockey being very much a sport that averages out a 3-2 win sport, forcing teams to string two 3-2 wins together seems like a better way of recognizing who is the best.

Logistically, the Olympics isn’t going to go that route and single elimination is the way it will always be.

Some praise where praise is due, With the World Cup of Hockey it would be nice to see a change made back to the finals requiring at a best of three winner to crown a champion. Continuing that notion, it would be nice if after that after round robin the tournament abandons the division format and allowed the top team to face the 8th placed team, 2nd vs. 7th best, and so on rather than 1v4 in the opposition division model. The three division format makes that a necessity, but it shouldn’t be something that goes away and something the NHL should ideally learn from as well.

Any complaining aside, it’s nice watching some high stakes hockey in February at a time when the wheels normally come off the NHL season and we’re begging for the playoffs.

Consistently mediocre

Month

GP

Points %

League Rank

October

11 games

0.500

T-21

November

14 games

0.500

T-22

December

14 games

0.607

T-12

Jan/Feb

18 games

0.583

T-14

The Leafs have been better since December, and when (maybe if, but likely when) the Leafs miss the playoffs, it will be the first couple of months that will be the reason for it.

The thing is, the Leafs’ improved hockey in December through February still doesn’t point to the Leafs being a roster worth keeping intact and running it back with as much of this group as possible next season. And given the choices between pursuing a low percentage run at a wild card spot or cashing out on middle and lower in the roster players to put Toronto in a better position for the future, the choice seems pretty obvious.

By the numbers, since December 1st the Leafs have the second worst 5v5 Corsi% in the NHL (both at 5v5 and in all situations), a 5v5 GF% of 46.9% (9th worst in the NHL), and an equally bad 5v5 expected goals percentage of 47.52 according to Natural Stat Trick.

Even if the Leafs match their best hockey they do not have the pace to grab a playoff spot and while all of this is likely obvious to Leafs fans at this point, it seems like a message that needs to be repeated considering the three game winning streak and improving health situation for a number of roster players.

Regrouping for 2026-27 is the only play.

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