Two days after Duke beat Michigan on a neutral court in the marquee game of the weekend, the teams traded places in the Associated Press Top 25 — with the Blue Devils ascending to No. 1 for the first time this season.
Duke received 56 of 61 first-place votes Monday after its 68-63 win over Michigan in Washington, D.C., a performance led by national player of the year favorite Cameron Boozer. Arizona, which notched the weekend’s other major victory Saturday at No. 2 Houston, moved up from No. 4 to No. 2. Michigan, Iowa State and Houston rounded out the top five.
The Blue Devils could also be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They were No. 2 when the selection committee unveiled its top 16 seeds Saturday, behind only Michigan.
Alabama and Florida were this week’s biggest risers, with the Crimson Tide climbing eight spots to No. 17 and the Gators moving up five positions to No. 7. Kansas and Vanderbilt were the biggest fallers, with the Jayhawks dropping six slots to No. 14 and the Commodores also sliding six positions to No. 25.
No. 22 Tennessee was the lone new team in this week’s poll, while Wisconsin fell out of the top 25.
Here’s the full poll, along with the ballot of The Athletic’s C.J. Moore:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Record
|
Prev
|
CJ’s vote
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
25-2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
25-2 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
3 |
25-2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
4 |
23-4 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
5 |
23-4 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
6 |
25-3 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
7 |
21-6 |
12 |
9 |
|
|
8 |
22-5 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
9 |
27-2 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
10 |
22-6 |
10 |
7 |
|
|
11 |
24-3 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
12 |
23-4 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
13 |
22-5 |
15 |
11 |
|
|
14 |
20-7 |
8 |
17 |
|
|
15 |
22-5 |
17 |
16 |
|
|
16 |
20-7 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
17 |
20-7 |
25 |
15 |
|
|
18 |
21-6 |
16 |
21 |
|
|
19 |
20-7 |
23 |
23 |
|
|
20 |
20-7 |
20 |
18 |
|
|
21 |
27-0 |
22 |
NR |
|
|
22 |
20-7 |
NR |
19 |
|
|
23 |
25-2 |
18 |
24 |
|
|
24 |
20-7 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
25 |
21-6 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
NR |
18-7 |
24 |
25 |
Others receiving votes: Wisconsin 47, Saint Mary’s 30, Villanova 15, Miami (Fla.) 10, Utah State 8, NC State 7, SMU 4, Texas A&M 3, Iowa 3, UCF 3, High Point 2, Stephen F. Austin 2, Navy 1
Duke vs. Michigan extends to March
While Duke is No. 1 this week, and that’s how I voted, don’t be surprised if Michigan still ends up the overall No. 1 seed if both teams run the table. You could also justify still ranking the Wolverines at No. 1 based on the numbers. Michigan still tops all three resume-based rankings and is No. 1 in two of the three quality-based rankings listed on the NCAA Tournament team sheets. Both teams have three games against Quad-1 opponents left on their schedules, but Michigan’s are against tougher opposition. Then Michigan will likely play better teams in the Big Ten tournament than Duke will face in the ACC tourney. It’s even conceivable that the Blue Devils could go undefeated the rest of the way while the Wolverines lose one more game — for example, at Illinois this Friday — and still get the same result.
The Iowa State-Houston debate
One difficult call to make this week was what to do at Nos. 4-6. Iowa State, Houston and UConn all lost this week. UConn had by far the worst of the three losses to Creighton, so I ended up picking between Iowa State (which lost at BYU) and Houston (which lost at home to Arizona and in a head-to-head matchup last Monday against Iowa State). These teams, coincidentally, were the two we debated last week at the media’s mock NCAA Tournament selection in Indianapolis. Houston was our final No. 1 seed, but when we scrubbed the ranking list, I called to reevaluate the Houston-Iowa State order.
While Houston is slightly higher in five of the six team-sheet ranking systems, it’s a worthwhile debate when you examine the resumes closely. Iowa State’s best wins — St. John’s (on a neutral court), at Purdue, Kansas and Houston — are better than Houston’s best — Arkansas (on a neutral court), Texas Tech and at BYU. Houston’s four losses are all against teams currently in my Top 25, while two of Iowa State’s four defeats have come against teams outside my Top 25 (road losses to TCU and Cincinnati). The combination of best wins plus Iowa State’s head-to-head victory has me favoring the Cyclones. And on Saturday, the selection committee agreed, slotting Iowa State as the final No. 1 seed.
Kansas remains hard to figure out
Kansas dropped from 11 to 17 on my ballot after losing 84-68 at home to Cincinnati. The Jayhawks are a difficult team to slot. According to Evan Miyakawa, KU’s win quality is currently ninth-best in his system, while the loss quality is 30th. KU’s team sheet is also all over the place, ranking as high as sixth (at KPI) and as low as 19th (at BPI and KenPom). The Jayhawks were a No. 3 seed in Saturday’s reveal, but their loss to Cincinnati could end up costing them at least one line. How the Bearcats finish could matter for KU. Cincy, winners of four straight, is currently outside the tourney picture but the team could potentially play its way in. The Jayhawks have to be rooting for Cincy, West Virginia and UCF the rest of the way.