So, with all that being said, is there any reason to believe Berríos can bounce back?
He didn’t inspire much confidence during his first Spring Training start on Monday against the New York Mets, allowing two runs on three hits through two-and-two-thirds of an inning. However, it’s far too early to conclude based solely on that performance.
After he was removed from the Blue Jays rotation and finished the season on the IL, Jose Berrios chose not to be with the club during the World Series.
Today, manager John Schneider said the situation has been handled internally:
The two biggest differences between last season’s version of Berríos and the one we saw succeed the year before were command and fastball velocity.
Berríos’ walk rate jumped from 6.9% to 8% in 2025, which equated to his worst BB/9 (3.0) since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Issuing free passes is a recipe for disaster when opponents are barrelling you a career-high 11.3% of the time.
Also concerning was that Berríos lost heat on his fastballs. His sinker sat at just 92.2 mph last season after averaging 93.4 mph in 2024. His four-seamer, meanwhile, dropped from 94.1 mph to just 93 mph. He fell from the 41st to the 22nd percentile in fastball velocity.
The only way Berríos is turning things around is if he gets his fastball back. Throwing 92 mph heaters doesn’t cut it in today’s game unless you have elite command, which Berríos didn’t even have during his best seasons with the Minnesota Twins.
Are injuries to blame? It’s possible that the elbow and bicep tendon inflammation that ultimately forced Berríos onto the injured list affected his ability to let it rip. He might have been dialling things back to preserve his arm and avoid making things worse.
José Berríos vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladdy disagreed with the call on the very first pitch he’s seen, grounded to third and yelled “Baseball is back” as he walked off. #BlueJays
The issue is that Berríos actually had good command and velocity in 2022. The underlying tools were better; it was his approach that needed refining. He’s working with inferior tools compared to when he rediscovered himself in Toronto the first time around.
The most likely outcome is that we’ve simply seen the best of Berríos—but a turnaround is possible if better health brings with it a better fastball.