The Winnipeg Jets have returned home from a 4 game road trip that saw the franchise continue to pick up points on a regular basis, as they went 2-1-1 to grab 5 of the available 8 points. Yet, despite going 7-3-3 since January 9th (getting 17 of the available 26 pts), the True Northers have only managed to close the gap on the Western Conference’s last wildcard spot by 2 points (were down 11 pts, but it is now only 9). At that pace, the Jets would need 65 more games in the regular season to take the smallest lead for that last post-season position. Unfortunately, there are only 27 contests left….
When it comes to Winnipeg’s remaining schedule, the conclusion to the regular season is pretty much split evenly between expected playoff and non-playoff opposition. From now on, the Jets will play 13 contests versus the NHL’s top 15 clubs and 14 against the league’s bottom 17 (minus WPG). That will probably allow our hockey team to gain points at a decent pace if they keep playing like they have been, but unless a bunch of other teams hit serious slumps it won’t be enough to grab a playoff spot. What it might do is make their odds at luck in the lottery become less likely.
Speaking of that, according to Tankathon, the Jets have the 5th best odds before Wednesday’s action gets underway. That means they have around a 9% shot at earning one of the first 2 picks in the Entry Draft, but are more likely to end up in 5th (25%) or 6th (43%).
So lets use Tankathon’s lottery simulator once again to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these probabilities:
- Winnipeg Jets (8.7% odds)
- Chicago Blackhawks (8.1% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (56.6% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (40.1% odds)
- New York Rangers (19.2% odds)
- Calgary Flames (9.6% odds)
A bit of luck once again, as Winnipeg and Chicago are the lucky winners in the lottery, allowing them to jump up 4 spots each. Interesting that this site still has Gavin McKenna as the likely #1 overall since they had the Jets draft him in this mock run.
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In the Winnipeg Jets’ final game before the 3 week Olympic break, the Montreal Canadiens will be visiting the Canada Life Centre for the two Canadian franchises final match of the year. The Habs won 3-2 in a shootout on home ice in early December and both clubs will be coming in off overtime losses in their most recent games.
Montreal (31-17-8) is doing well in 2025-26, currently tied for 7th with 70 points on the season. That is 18 more points than our Jets have accumulated and the Canadiens have mainly relied on a potent offense to reach these heights. With the 4th most goals scored (194) and the 7th best powerplay in the NHL (23.6%), the Habs have plenty of skaters that can make the opposition rue any turnovers in the defensive or neutral zones. Things aren’t quite as impressive defensively though, as Montreal has allowed the 25th most goals against (186) while having the NHL’s 28th worst penalty kill (76.9%).
Winnipeg (22-25-8) is not doing well this year, sitting in the 28th spot in the standings with a meager 52 points. The Jets are the opposite of tonight’s opponent, as they rely more on their defensive play to pick up wins. Currently they have allowed the 12th least goals against (170) and have the 16th best PKers (79.4%), but the offense has been a problem with the 24th least goals scored (159) and the 21st worst powerplay (19%).
Tonight’s game (6 pm CST start) should mean a lot to the the Canadiens, as they currently hold the 7th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but would probably rather move into the 2nd & 3rd positions in the Atlantic Division to get a more favourable matchup in the post-season. Right now, they are tied with the Buffalo Sabres and 2 points behind the Detroit Red Wings, but both those franchises have a large advantage in the first tie-breaker (regulation wins) so they will most likely need to end up with more points after 82 games to un-seed them. The good news for the Habs is they have a 7 point lead on the teams that could knock them out of the playoffs completely (CLM, TOR, & WSH), though the Boston Bruins could drop them down to 8th since they are only 2 points back.
If the True Northers are going to comeback from the 4.5 game deficit to make the post-season…then all the remaining games will be hugely important. Right now, MoneyPuck has those odds at 6.4%, which is better than only 6 other franchises. So highly unlikely, but mathematically possible.
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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Since I already broke down a lot of the stats before I posted the above diagrams, I won’t dig much deeper into the numbers. Neither club has been receiving top-notch goaltending this year and that could become a huge issue for the Canadiens in the playoffs.
Another area of concern for the Habs is their 5 on 5 play in 2025-26, as they hold a 48.81% Expected Goals rating, which is good for the 22nd best in the NHL. The stat guys will tell you that this category is the best indicator for eventual playoff success…so not a good sign for Montreal. By the way, the bottom feeding Jets are in 27th in the league with a 46.79% number, not that far back from tonight’s opponent.
The pre-game skate was supposed to be early, but no information up on Illegal Curve yet, so for now we will rely on the line up projections via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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MONTREAL CANADIENS LINE UP
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Running out of time, so if you aren’t ready to move onto another website yet…..maybe take a second look at the stats & line ups? I will try to check things around noon today to see if there is any line up news and will either update this article or make a comment below.
Have a good day!! The cold streak is finally over in the Peg!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Montreal Canadiens 5 Winnipeg Jets 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): MTL 6.89 WPG 5.77
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 3.70 MTL 2.35
The above 4 forward lines led the Jets in ice time versus the Canadiens….and for the most part the xG battles were fairly close with these units. Winnipeg’s 4th line only saw 4 minutes of play and had a rough night, earning only 5.3% of the xG’s. The True Northers allowed 3 Montreal even strength goals and the top 3 lines above allowed 1 each.
Only the Samberg–Salomonsson pairing played well last night, earning over 80% of the xG’s, though they did allow one of Montreal’s even strength goals. The Jets’ top d pairing also allowed a goal against, as did Morrissey–Stanley in just over 2 minutes of playing time together.
Another unsatisfactory outing for Hellebuyck, even though he did make quite a few quality stops in the match.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
The Winnipeg Jets are back where they were at the end of their season long 11 game losing streak……11 points back of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. With only 26 games left on the schedule, it appears that the time to launch a comeback has passed and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will need to switch his path to doing what he can to set up the True Northers for a better season next year.
From the sounds of it, both rookies Elias Salomonsson & Isaak Phillips will be sent down to the Manitoba Moose during the Olympic shutdown to allow them to keep working on their games. The move will not only provide the AHL affiliate with a boost as they try to oust the Chicago Wolves for the 2nd place spot in the Central Division, but also allow the young prospects to play 6 games while the rest of the Jets are enjoying their time off.
Speaking of prospects, Kevin He was coming off a 5 point night for the Flint Firebirds and he built on that in their next contest, picking up a hattrick to increase his goal total for the season to 25. The young prospect ended up pocketing the game winning goal, as well as a pair of empty netters……which is an area that the Jets could certainly use help with given their recent failures to take advantage of a pulled goalie.
The 3 week break is here……but keep coming back to the site to discuss the Olympic hockey tournament or to read any other articles I put out during the hiatus. Enjoy the rest of your week!!
****was unable to find the game recap video on YouTube to link to the article. Maybe Winnipeg was so embarrassed by the performance, they didn’t want to post it on their site??***