Preseason Prep – February 26, 2026
Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
Raleigh was a solid catching option from 2022-2024, hitting 91 homers over the course of those three seasons. Well, as we all know, Raleigh exploded in 2025, clubbing 60 homers and stealing 14 bags to boot, making him far and away the most valuable catcher in fantasy. With multiple productive seasons underneath his belt, there’s no doubt that Raleigh is productive. However, at his overall 16 ADP, he is expensive in drafts, and we need to look into how much regression we might face in order to determine whether paying that price makes sense or not. For starters, Raleigh’s 65 actual homers was well above his 56 xHR, so there was luck on an environment-based basis. Second, Raleigh’s 25.8% GB rate is the second lowest amongst all qualified hitters in the last decade, just behind 2019 Mike Trout. His 38.4% Pull air rate was the second highest in the bigs, and a whole 6.6% above the next. Raleigh has been good at both these things his whole career, but even his 2025 figures represent pretty absurd outliers. Many point towards Raleigh’s improved walk rate, as his 13.8% represented a 2.7% jump from 2024. However, Raleigh did not make more contact, nor did he chase less, nor did he miss less in 2025 compared to 2024. We need to factor in some regression. If what we saw in 2025 represented a new baseline ability for contact, then we need to start talking about Raleigh as one of the best power hitters of all time. That is less likely the case. It is more likely the case that the 60 HR was a product of some luck and some unusually outlier performance. That being said, there is a baseline that cannot be ignored. He is still a catcher with a skillset for 40 homers, obviously. At his ADP, I don’t find myself taking him over Tatis or Henderson, as the batting average floor on those guys is so much better. I have Raleigh in his own tier, right after those guys, but firmly before Caminero as well.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
On the surface, Yamamoto is one of the best picks you can make in the third round right now, and at his 25 ADP, you can build a foundation of drafting him and his teammate Ohtani in the same league. Yamamoto is nothing short of an ace. His 2.49 ERA is confidently supported by a 2.72 xERA and 3.05 xFIP. Yamamoto’s deep arsenal allows him to punchout plenty of guys (29%) and his .319 xwOBACON is super low. As a Dodgers, he’ll have no problem raking up wins. However, drafting Yamamoto at 25 ADP needs to come with a warning. Yamamoto’s main flaw is that he made 30 starts last year, and only pitched 173 innings. Skenes, Skubal, and Crochet all project for more innings, putting them clearly in a tier ahead. Christopher Sanchez, Bryan Woo, and Hunter Brown come with less name appeal, but are actually similar performers projected for more innings. Yamamoto has better insulation than all of them, but be aware that you are really paying for that insulation when Bryan Woo is available 12 picks later.
Shane Smith, SP, Chicago White Sox
Smith was productive last year, posting a 3.81 ERA in 146 innings. However, under the hood, things don’t look great. His K/BB ratio (23/9) is nothing special, he’s not a respectable ground ball getter (41%) and he allows hard contact (45.4%). His 71.7% LOB slightly leans towards getting lucky. There is just a really uninteresting skillset with no particularly outstanding single ability to hang your hat on. At SP80, it’s not like he’s pricey, but there is just so much more upside at his point in the board.
Parker Messick, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Messick posted a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP as a rookie last year, and while the sample size isn’t enough to speak with confidence, there were still some good elements to his game. He walked only 3.6% of batters, and while that will rise in a larger sample, he posted below a 9% walk rate in all but one minor league level. Oppositely, he posted a 23% K rate, but punched out more than 26% at all levels. He’s also a historic groundball getter who posted below a 34% hard hit rate in both AAA and the bigs last season. Messick needs to win the rotation spot, and I think he will. I don’t see SP1 upside, but the former second round pick could be sneaky product and a draft value as SP96
Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians
DeLauter was drafted in 2022, but he’s unfortunately only taken 583 PAs in the minor league due to nagging injuries. His 14/12 K/BB ratio across all minor league PA’s is nothing to balk at. It’s tough to express any single statistic due to the small sample of each sample, but his SwStr rates tends to be below 7%, with his last sample being 6.9% in AAA last year. DeLauter got called up for the playoffs, signaling that the organization has not given up on how good the bat is. At OF77, he is a pretty cheap upside play, especially in points leagues.
Jose Altuve, OF, Houston Astros
Altuve slashed .265/.329/.442 with 26 homers, keeping fantasy managers more or less happy with the production. Under the hood, there are serious red flags. Altuve’s .232 xwOBACON and 30% hard hit rate are some of the worst rates of his career, and his 85 EV was the lowest. His .237 xBA should concern you, especially as someone who has lost a tremendous amount of speed as well. Altuve is kept alive by posting a 23% Pull Air rate or greater in four of his last five year, keeping him relevant in the homerun category. At age 35, the physical skills are declining, and at OF27, that feels like a very steep price.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Many might believe that Vlad Jr had a down 2025, as his 23 homers was the lowest total of the past five seasons, but there is absolutely nothing to worry about. His xBA, Barrel %, LASS, HH%, and K% were all better in 2025 compared to his career average. His low 14% Pull Air rate is responsible for the lower homerun count. The good news is that he posted a 14.7% Pull Air rate in 2021 when he hit 48 homers. A larger standard deviation in launch angle to due an unusual bat path has plagued this profile for the entirety of its career, but nothing has fundamentally changed. He has tons of power and he makes tons of contact. Buy Low.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF Boston Red Sox
Rafaela is a defensive specialist with a strong arm from the outfield, but none of that is helpful for fantasy. Rafaela’s speed will allow him to contribute in the SB department and his respectable ability to get the ball in the air will keep homers coming. I worry about the pure hitter. Rafaela is a free swinger. His 60% swing rate is well above the big league 48%. It prevents him from walking ,which caps the stolen base upside. A lot of it is out of the zone to as his 44% chase rate is well above the big league average of 28%. Even as a premium runner, the batting average is severely capped, and he’s a very unattractive player in points leagues.
Xavier Edwards, SS/2B, Miami Marlins
Edwards is a two trick pony. His .262 xBA and league average walk rate allow him to steal plenty of bags. He has lofty goals for more, but I don’t believe it. He doesn’t get on base enough to really steal more than he’s shown (31, 27). The reason is because Edwards has elite contact ability (90+% in zone contact) but horrible impact. His .307 xwOBACON is poor, and he’s barreled only 9 balls in 763 career BBE. The impact could really not be lower. I’d rather he swing less to hopefully walk more, giving him more stolen base chances. His league average LASS makes him a mediocre bet to keep up his batting average year to year.
Christian Moore, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
The 2024 8th overall pick got the Angels treatment, being thrusted into the bigs with not even 100 minor league games underneath his belt. Moore didn’t even present good contact skills in the minors before his premature call up, striking out at 27% in 300 upper minors PAs. That being said, he did hit 13 homers and steal 12 bases in 410 minor league PAs. Moore was bad in the bigs, slashing .198/.284/.370, striking out 33% of the time. This is what being overmatched looks like. The good news is that the poor big league showing doesnt negate the possibility he can get better. His 38% LASS, 73 bat speed and 24% chase rate is actually a not-too-bad foundation for someone who was so bad on the surface. Impact is always the last thing to develop, and he has a history of power. At 2B44, he’s basically off the board, but he is a guy I’m keeping an eye on.
Jorge Polanco, 2B, New York Mets
Polanco is coming off one of the best years of his career. His 45.8% hard hit rate was a career high, and it paired well by him posting near career-avg LASS and the lowest walk rate since 2020. His 2B19 ADP is staggering. This is an ultra insulated player with no major weakness, no notable sign of decline, and a career 24% Pull Air rate.
Mookie Betts, SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s hard to admit for such a legacy player, but Mookie really had a down year, and I’m concerned. His .330 xwOBACON and 35.8% HH rate were not only a career lows, but just low figures in general. He’s still a “hitter” who doesn’t whiff, doesn’t chase, and makes plenty of contact, but the impact is going. He’s also losing a step on the bases. I don’t like seeing physical skillsets deteriorate, because the moderate production keeps us clinging to hope for a bounceback. I’m not saying Mookie can’t, but at 33 years old, 47 overall ADP is just super rich for me.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Aranda has excellent batted ball data. His .482 xwOBACON and 54% HH rate are convincing enough. Combine that with a premium 42% LASS, and you get a robust .291 xBA and .515xSLG. Aranda’s splits aren’t too bad either, as he has a .723 OPS against lefties, making him manageable against them. His 24% Pull Air rate means we could see the homer count continue to grow. The elements are there for a super high floor player. The Rays are tight on handing out full time roles to players, and I have no doubt that plays a role in his 1B19 ADP. If you don’t play in a weekly lineup league and are down to manipulate lineups daily, Aranda is a great play.
Alec Burleson, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Burleson isn’t the prettiest name out there, but he’s a very well-rounded hitter with a floor and insulation. His 14/7 K/BB rate keeps him very relevant in points leagues. He’s ran a .270 xBA for three years running, so I think we’re insulated in that department. He’s posted above a 41% hard hit rate all four years of his career. He’s not exciting but it is hard to pass on one of the best bets for 15-20 homers, average, and points in his ADP range.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Bohm is a guy who slowly came into his own as a hitter, and has slowly fallen out of his own. The underlying hitter is really good. Bohm has posted a .275 average in 5 of 6 years in his career. He doesn’t whiff (93rd percentile) and doesn’t chase (60th percentile). The issue with Bohm is his poor 10% Pull Air rate. This rate has never been above 12% in his career. The homers aren’t coming and the Phillies lineup is taking a step back in 2026. He is much more relevant hitter in real life.
featured