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Matt Weston, the double Winter Olympic gold medallist in Milano-Cortina last month, was a surprise guest at England’s Pennyhill Park training base on Monday. But Steve Borthwick’s shock selection plan for his own trip to Italy this weekend means he and his team could be skating on thin ice.
After back-to-back defeats by Scotland and Ireland, Borthwick is set to rip up his team for the Stadio Olimpico, and likely to have a completely new backline.
Such has been the disappointment of England’s last two displays – dominated in both dreadful opening quarters – that Borthwick simply had to make changes for the Azzurri. But a mass mid-championship rotation is an unprecedented, significant surprise for a man normally known for his conservatism.
You certainly can’t fault Borthwick for responding to what he has seen in the past fortnight. After a 12-match winning streak, England’s form has fallen off a cliff to a hugely worrying extent.
Bringing in Fin Smith at No 10 for George Ford, who struggled against Ireland to the point he was sarcastically cheered just for making touch by the Twickenham crowd, is the right call. But potentially changing every single member of the back division around him does feel like something of a panic move.
Hamstring and knee injuries suffered by scrum-half Alex Mitchell and centre Ollie Lawrence meant Borthwick had to swap them out. Tommy Freeman, who started on the wing against Ireland, is likely to move back to centre.
Bringing in Fin Smith at No 10 for George Ford is the right call. But potentially changing every single member of the back division around him does feel like something of a panic move
Seb Atkinson is set to reunite with his old England Under 20s and Worcester Warriors team-mate Smith
| Pl | W | L | PD | BP | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 3 | 3 | 0 | +89 | 3 | 15 |
| Scotland | 3 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 3 | 11 |
| Ireland | 3 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 1 | 9 |
| England | 3 | 1 | 2 | +9 | 1 | 5 |
| Italy | 3 | 1 | 2 | -29 | 1 | 5 |
| Wales | 3 | 0 | 3 | -86 | 1 | 1 |
Elliot Daly, Cadan Murley and Tom Roebuck are leading contenders to start in the back three, while Marcus Smith and George Furbank are other full-back alternatives to Daly.
The most changes an England coach has ever made to his backline in a Six Nations match is four, on three occasions. The prospect of making seven this weekend will break new ground.
England must win in Rome. They have never lost to Italy and to do so for the first time would spell disaster for Borthwick.
He places a great deal of emphasis on cohesion data – the number of times players in key positions have lined up together previously. That is why a 10-12 axis of Fin Smith and Seb Atkinson is a brave move.
They have never played together in a Test, and have not started alongside one another since combining at England Under-20 level and with Worcester Warriors.
Against Scotland and Ireland, England gifted up unrecoverable leads, made far too many basic errors and did not convert enough of their entries into the opposition 22 into points.
Making large numbers of changes often leads to rustiness and a degree of unfamiliarity. England need less of that, not more, but there is every chance it might happen – if it does, a revived Italy will be ready to prey on them in their backyard.
England’s potential inexperience behind the scrum for Rome is a cause for concern. In their past two outings, Borthwick’s men haven’t been able to respond to setbacks and you wonder what trouble a lack of leadership may lead to.
Cadan Murley, who struggled on debut in Dublin in the previous Six Nations but impressed in Argentina last summer, is a contender to start in the back three in Italy
Italy will be smelling blood – which is why 33-year-old Elliot Daly, with his 74 caps, is likely to start
Italy will be smelling blood – which is why 33-year-old Daly, with his 74 caps, is likely to start.
Borthwick has certainly been bold and his team for Italy will be full of talent and good to watch.
But if things unravel badly for a third straight match, it will open the door to a potential one-win Six Nations, something they have never suffered before, and spell big trouble for Borthwick.
A huge test awaits in the Eternal City. It’s one England can’t afford to fail.