Breece Hall is one of the best players for a franchise in transition.
Keywords: “franchise” and “transition.”
The Jets and Hall have until 4 p.m. Tuesday to agree on a multiyear contract extension or he will be slapped with either the franchise tag or the transition tag to keep him from reaching free agency, as general manager Darren Mougey revealed last week at the NFL Scouting Combine.
If that happens, the dynamics of the negotiation will shift because the salary attached to the tag will set a floor for Hall to use as the average annual value of a contract, and both sides will feel less urgency to act, an NFL agent told The Post.
The Jets will know their running back is restricted by the one-year tender on the table and Hall will want to see a few developments.
So, what’s the difference between the two options?
The rarely used transition tag ($11.3 million) affords the Jets the right of first refusal — to keep Hall by matching any contract terms he accepts from another team.
If they do not match, they receive no compensation.
Only six players have been transition-tagged in the last 10 years and none have received an offer from a competing team since 2018 (Kyle Fuller).
The more common franchise tag ($14.3 million) means another team would have to surrender two first-round picks to the Jets to sign Hall — a no-chance scenario that essentially takes him off the market.
“I’d wait for a few things if I’m Breece,” CBS Sports contracts analyst Joel Corry, a former agent, told The Post. “Wait to see what free agent Kenneth Walker gets done. We will likely see a couple of first-round draft picks fundamentally change the running back market: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) and Bijan Robinson (Falcons) are going to be looking at extensions at Saquon Barkley’s contract. And Devon Achane (Dolphins) is going to be looking to be up there. I let those guys redefine the running back market under the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats.”
An agent said the two tag amounts are the correct top and bottom of the range for the 24-year-old Hall’s annual value.
If the two sides split the difference — and NFL negotiations rarely operate so logically — then Hall’s contract would average $12.8 million per year.
Most high-end running back contracts are either three or four years in length, with front-loaded guaranteed money.
“It would be something to seriously consider depending on the structure and the cash flow,” Corry said. “I’ll take the first two years fully guaranteed, some conditional guarantees in the third year or a March roster bonus, and I’m going to want 70 to 73 percent through the first two years, including 40 to 45 percent in the first year.”
Hall would have the third-highest average annual value among running backs if franchise-tagged, eighth if transition-tagged and fifth if they meet in the middle.
Saquon Barkley ($20.6 million), Christian McCaffrey ($19 million), Derrick Henry ($15 million) and Jonathan Taylor ($14 million) are the four highest-paid running backs, per OverTheCap.com.
Getting tagged and signing the tender are two different things.
Hall could stay away from all offseason activities without being subject to fines while unsigned as a way to create leverage.
The Jets could rescind an unsigned tag at any point, though that rare move would risk creating bad blood in the locker room.
Franchised players have until July 15 to negotiate extensions.
The signing period ends for transitioned players about a week later.
After the deadlines, the one-year tender is the only non-negotiable contract available.
Which teams might try to poach Hall if he is transition-tagged?
The Chiefs, who reportedly made an offer for him at last year’s trade deadline, Saints and Commanders.
When the Bills’ James Cook (four years, $46 million) and Rams’ Kyren Williams (three years, $33 million) signed extensions before last season, Hall ate humble pie compared to his two 2022 draft classmates.
“They’ve done much more in the league than I have,” Hall said in August. “They’ve been in better situations, and they are both very good players. For me, I feel like I’m just as talented as anyone, but those guys are really good running backs, and they deserve their payday.”
Then Hall delivered his first 1,000-yard rushing season, was 14th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,415) and accounted for a team-high five of the Jets’ near league-low 26 offensive touchdowns.
He earned $9 million over his first four seasons.
The Jets have $88.7 million in salary cap space — third only to the Titans and Raiders — and could do an extensive roster flip in the second season of the Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn regime.