Italy and England. On level points in the Six Nations table. Two rounds to go. And England have already played their Wales joker.
All in all, there is quite a lot riding on the fixture in Rome on Saturday, especially if you are interested in the lower reaches of the Six Nations table, a purgatory with which even England are quite familiar. They started this championship ranked third in the world, a whisker behind the All Blacks in second, and feeling (not unreasonably) rather good about themselves after 11 Test wins in succession. Then it was 12 (Wales), and then … oh dear.
Now they are in danger of emulating their recent championships of 2018, 2021 and 2023, when they finished fifth, fifth and fourth respectively. If they lose in Rome in the late afternoon on Saturday, and Italy, cock-a-hoop with their second victory of the championship, were to slip up in Cardiff on the final weekend, it is not out of the question that England finish, for the first time, last in the Six Nations. Quite the comedown.
Italy, though, will – or should – be harbouring grander ambitions. Fourth is their highest finish in the Six Nations (2007 and 2013), but there is little reason to argue they are not now worthy of a first finish in the top half, certainly if we are to go by the evidence of the first three rounds, from which they might very well have harvested more than the five points they have.
There are only two teams Italy have never beaten, and England are one of them. Musing over whether the Azzurri might, finally, prevail in this fixture feels a little like the age-old musing over whether they might, finally, justify the patience and resources afforded them by the Six Nations and finish somewhere other than fifth (six times) or last (18 times, out of 26).
However much Italy have given cause for optimism over the past quarter of a century, talked up time and again (often in these pages) as, if not contenders, at least worthy of mixing it in this company, they have never been far away from an absolute shellacking at the hands of a team who really know how to play rugby. The years building up to 2007, for example, were just such a time, Sergio Parisse, Martin Castrogiovanni, Marco Bortolami, the Bergamasco brothers et al in their pomp. Cue 70-point hiding in Marseille against the All Blacks (the only other team they have never beaten) on the opening weekend of that year’s World Cup.
Even as recently as the last World Cup, the 90-point and 60-point defeats against the All Blacks and France respectively were two of the most depressing scorelines of recent times. Italy have always been the proverbial “difficult team to beat” when playing well against opponents who are not, but their vulnerability against teams of the highest class playing their best rugby has never quite been worked through.
So are we looking at (with apologies for asking this question for the umpteenth time in a rugby-writing career) a new energy in Italian rugby? When one asks those in the know about why they have for so long failed to build upon their inclusion in the Six Nations, usually the response involves governance issues. The struggle across rugby union between the blazers and the suits during the professional era is a well-documented phenomenon, but Italy are said to have suffered particularly from the lingering influence of committeemen more amateur in outlook than professional.
For evidence of a shift in that dynamic, one might turn to results at under-20 level. For the first decade of the Six Nations Under-20 (the first edition of which took place in 2008), Italy’s fortunes were much as those of the senior team, finishing above Scotland three times and propping up the table seven. They are not having much fun this year (nought from three), but since 2017 they have not finished last again, allowing for 2020’s abandoned championship. In 2023, they finished third.
The senior team are yet to reach such heights, but, yes, here we are again, daring to wonder if this is Italy’s time to escape the lower half of the table. The relative success of recent years at junior level is now percolating through. Italy cannot yet boast the cast list of world-class players touched on above (how on earth did they not win more?), but the difference now is that their best players are young. And they are really causing problems.
Tommaso Menoncello leads the way, still only 23 and already boasting a player of the championship award (2024, when he was 21). But the rest of the team fits a similar profile, young, learning, hard as nails and not afraid of the wide-open spaces.
It is at scrum-time, though, that they can plausibly lay claim to supremacy. Scotland and Ireland, in rounds one and two, were utterly dismantled in that department, Scotland at the lineout too. Even against France, Italy had a clear edge.
That they lost games two and three in the manner they did might be accounted harsh. They pushed Ireland right to the limit. Nobody could have argued had they won that. And France relied, again, on a superiority in intuition and pace. For large tracts of the match the physical contest was Italy’s.
If there is one area where England have remained impressive, it is the scrum. The connoisseurs will enjoy that battle on Saturday. But there will be rather more going on in this little episode of rugby’s great soap opera. England’s confidence looks shot. If there were one assignment they might look to for a rebuild, it might be the one against a team to whom they have never lost. But they will lose to them eventually. Italy will think Rome this springtime as good an opportunity as any.
-
This is an extract taken from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown. To sign up, just visit this page and follow the instructions.