With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, there are still several parts of the bracket that are in flux. One of these areas features eight teams that slot in between 6th and 13th on the seed list, spanning most of the two line, all of the three line and the top four seed. Half of that collection of eight teams comes from the Big Ten (Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska and Purdue), while the other half hails from the Big 12 (Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech), making the bracketing process almost as much of a pain as parsing through their profiles.
The other area is the bubble, which is turning into an absolute wasteland. The weekend was littered with bubble teams who either dropped what seemed to be winnable games or failed to take advantage of opportunities to pick up marquee wins. More on that in the last four in and first five out sections, though.
Conference tournaments also get rolling this week and by the time I post next week’s projections, seven automatic bids will have been handed out.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through March 2nd, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five teams out.
| WASHINGTON, DC (EAST) | CHICAGO (MIDWEST) | |
| Greenville – March 19/21 | Buffalo – March 19/21 | |
| 1) Duke | 1) Michigan | |
| 16) Bethune-Cookman / LIU | 16) Merrimack | |
| 8) UCF |
8) Clemson | |
| 9) Iowa | 9) Texas | |
| Tampa – March 20/22 | Portland – March 19/21 | |
| 5) Vanderbilt |
5) Tennessee | |
| 12) Yale | 12) South Florida |
|
| 4) Kansas | 4) Virginia | |
| 13) Stephen F. Austin | 13) UNC-Wilmington | |
| San Diego – March 20/22 | Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | |
| 6) Kentucky | 6) St. John’s | |
| 11) Miami (OH) | 11) TCU | |
| 3) Texas Tech | 3) Nebraska | |
| 14) Hawaii | 14) Navy | |
| Buffalo – March 19/21 | Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | |
| 7) Villanova | 7) Saint Mary’s | |
| 10) Missouri | 10) UCLA | |
| 2) Michigan St. | 2) Houston | |
| 15) Wright St. |
15) Central Arkansas | |
| HOUSTON (SOUTH) | SAN JOSE (WEST) | |
| Philadelphia – March 20/22 | San Diego – March 20/22 | |
| 1) Connecticut | 1) Arizona | |
| 16) Howard / UMBC | 16) Tennessee St. | |
| 8) Miami (FL) | 8) Saint Louis | |
| 9) Georgia | 9) NC State | |
| Philadelphia – March 20/22 | Portland – March 19/21 | |
| 5) North Carolina | 5) Arkansas | |
| 12) Belmont | 12) Liberty | |
| 4) Alabama | 4) Gonzaga | |
| 13) High Point | 13) Utah Valley | |
| St. Louis – March 20/22 | Greenville – March 19/21 | |
| 6) Wisconsin | 6) BYU | |
| 11) Santa Clara / VCU |
11) New Mexico / Ohio St. | |
| 3) Iowa St. | 3) Purdue | |
| 14) North Dakota St. | 14) Troy | |
| St. Louis – March 20/22 | Tampa – March 20/22 | |
| 7) Louisville | 7) Utah St. | |
| 10) Texas A&M | 10) SMU | |
| 2) Illinois | 2) Florida | |
| 15) ETSU | 15) Portland St. |
Last Four In:
Ohio State – After losing on the road at Iowa earlier in the week, the Buckeyes were one of the few bubble teams to actually help themselves over the weekend when they knocked off Purdue at home. Even with that victory, OSU is still just 1-9 in Q1A contests, but they have just one non-Q1 loss (at Pitt) and are 8-11 in the top two quadrants. They are now Top 40 in five of the six team sheet metrics heading into the final week of the season, where the Buckeyes will travel to Penn State before hosting Indiana.
New Mexico – The Lobos split their games last week, falling at Nevada before bouncing back to beat fellow bubbler San Diego State at home. They now sit at 2-5 in Q1 but are 8-6 in the top two quadrants, including wins at VCU and home against Santa Clara and SDSU, all of which help for bubble purposes. However, New Mexico has no wins over teams safely in the field to go with a Q3 loss at New Mexico State, so the margin for error is slim. The Lobos finish out the season by hosting Colorado State and then traveling to league-leading Utah State.
Santa Clara – If not for the struggles of other bubble teams, last week’s loss at Saint Mary’s probably would have pushed the Broncos to the wrong side of the cut line. Their result-based metrics all sit around 40th, though, and while they are just 1-5 in Q1, they do have six victories in Q2. However, a home win against Saint Mary’s is Santa Clara’s lone victory over a team in the at-large mix and their Q4 loss to Loyola Chicago is tough to explain. The Broncos will play their first WCC Tournament game on Sunday and a win there would give them another crack at the Gaels.
VCU – I would have assumed that VCU’s loss at Saint Louis on February 20th would have effectively squashed the Rams’ at-large case, but the inability of fellow bubble teams to win games has given them new life. Most of the team sheet metrics are in the mid-40s, but VCU is just 1-5 in Q1 contests, while a Q2 win on a neutral court against fellow bubbler Virginia Tech is proving to be important. An 8-5 road/neutral mark is solid and VCU has no losses outside of the top two quadrants. The Rams close out the season with games at home against George Mason and on the road against a surging Dayton squad.
First Five Out:
Virginia Tech – The Hokies played well at North Carolina on Saturday night but were unable to pick up a key win for their at-large hopes. As it stands, they rank 49th or worse in all but one of the team sheet metrics with a 2-9 mark in Q1 contests. VA Tech does have six Q2 victories to bolster the resume and they still face a road game at Virginia. The Hokies need to take care of business against Boston College before traveling to Charlottesville on Saturday.
Indiana – After Sunday’s home loss to Michigan State, the Hoosiers have now lost four straight games, dropping them to 2-11 in Q1 and just 4-12 in the top two quadrants. Last week’s home loss to Northwestern is their only slip-up outside of Q1, but Indiana is 1-7 in their eight toughest road/neutral games. The predictive metrics are still decent, but the result-based metrics have slipped dramatically in recent weeks. At this point, the Hoosiers have to beat Minnesota at home on Wednesday and then win at Ohio State on Saturday to stay alive.
Auburn – Just when it seemed like the Tigers might have righted the ship by beating Kentucky, they followed that up with a 0-2 week, losing at Oklahoma and then at home against Ole Miss. Auburn has now won just one of its last eight contests and has fallen to 15-14 overall. Only two teams have earned at-large bids when finishing just two games over .500, so there’s really no way you can project Auburn in the field right now. Tuesday’s home game with LSU is a must-win before traveling to Alabama for the season finale.
San Diego State – Last week was a mixed bag for the Aztecs, as they beat Utah State by 17 before losing a tough one at New Mexico. They are now 2-5 in Q1 and just 7-8 in the top two quadrants to go along with a Q3 loss to Troy. A WAB outside of the top 50 doesn’t bode well for selection, but SDSU could bolster the result-based numbers by winning at Boise State on Tuesday before hosting UNLV.
California – The Bears took one of the worst losses of any bubble team this weekend, falling at home to Pitt by 16 for their first loss outside of the top two quadrants. Four Q1 victories are great, headlined by a home win over UNC and a road win at Miami (FL). Oddly though, Cal is just 2-4 in Q2 contests with three of those losses coming to teams not in the at-large mix. From a metrics standpoint, the result-based numbers all hover around 50th while the quality metrics are quite a bit lower. The Bears finish out the season with road games at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, and they need to win both.
Conference Breakdown:
SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia
Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU
Mountain West (2): New Mexico, Utah State
American: South Florida
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Central Arkansas
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: High Point
Big West: Hawaii
Coastal: UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA: Liberty
Horizon: Wright State
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Merrimack
MAC: Miami (OH)
MEAC: Howard
Missouri Valley: Belmont
Northeast: LIU
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
Patriot: Navy
Southern: ETSU
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Bethune-Cookman
Summit: North Dakota State
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: Utah Valley
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology