The 12-day ATP Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells is about to get underway, with play set to run from March 4-15. Tennis bookmakers have released the majority of their odds for the men’s event, and we’ve already analyzed the draw, so now it’s time to outline some of the best bets to make. I’ve broken down the favorites, dark horses and value bets below, for those looking to have a punt.
BNP Paribas Open ATP odds and favorites
Here’s how top tennis betting sites are pricing the men’s BNP Paribas Open in 2026:
Men’s 2026 Indian Wells betting odds
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2.37 (+137)
- Jannik Sinner – 2.50 (+150)
- Novak Djokovic – 13.00 (+1200)
- Daniil Medvedev – 21.00 (+2000)
- Ben Shelton – 29.00 (+2800)
- Alexander Zverev – 29.00 (+2800)
- Taylor Fritz – 34.00 (+3300)
- Alex de Minaur – 34.00 (+3300)
There are two clear favorites heading into this year’s Indian Wells, with Alcaraz and Sinner both way ahead of the field in outright betting odds.
I don’t see Sinner priced correctly here, however. This even doesn’t play like a typical hardcourt, with its much grippier surface slowing balls down and favoring heavy topspin. The Italian is yet to make it beyond the semi-finals in California, and hasn’t won a title so far in 2026, so I’d have him further back from Alcaraz than these tennis odds indicate.
The other two aspects of this market that stand out to me are the positioning of Medvedev and Zverev. The former is not the player he was when he made the final in 2023 and 2024, and despite winning in Dubai last week, I don’t think he should be fourth favorite here given what the surface does to his game.
For Zverev, this is his worst Masters event by far, with the German holding a 13-10 record and no semi-finals. His odds of 29.00 (+2800) reflect this, but I’d have him a little longer personally.
Outside of these top-eight favorites, odds jump significantly, with Felix Auger-Aliassime on 41.00 (+4000) and others such as Lorenzo Musetti, Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik at 67.00 (+6600) or higher.
Top dark horses for ATP Indian Wells 2026
While Alcaraz and Sinner dominate the outright betting odds, let’s not forget that last year alone there were five first-time Masters winners. Tipping a dark horse correctly can be a lucrative game, so here’s who I’d recommend getting behind in Indian Wells:
- Sebastian Korda
- Learner Tien
- Arthur Fils
- Joao Fonseca
Sebastian Korda @ 101.00 (+10000)
American Seb Korda doesn’t necessarily have the type of game that screams Indian Wells success, but I see a few things going in his favor at the moment.
Firstly, he’s got some good momentum, with 13 wins already in 2026. Admittedly, four of those were at the Challenger level, but still, he bagged an ATP 250 title in February and comes here on a five-match winning streak.
Secondly, conditions this year seem to favor his playstyle a little better. Qualies seem to be playing faster, which means his big serve and flat hitting gets a little help.
What gives me pause about Korda is his record in Indian Wells – he’s just 2-4 in the main draw. However, I can make peace with this knowing that two of those losses were quite excusable (Medvedev, Rafael Nadal), one was five years ago to Tiafoe, and the other was in two tiebreaks to Monfils last year.
I’m not putting the house on him, but Korda has long been touted as a top-10 talent that just can’t stay healthy. While he’s healthy, and in a bit of form, he’s worth a look.
Learner Tien @ 101.00 (+10000)
A player whose game is perfectly suited for Indian Wells is Tien (image on top). The American has been a sensation over the last 15 months, rocketing his way to being arguably a top-10 hardcourt player.
Indian Wells doesn’t play like a typical hardcourt, but I see its surface playing even more into Tien’s hands than a standard one. The 20-year-old is a physical and defensive beast that thrives in long rallies and wars of attrition. That’s what this tournament is all about.
He’s pretty fresh on Tour so doesn’t have much of a record in this event, losing first round last year. However, Tien played the Challengers here in 2024, bagging four wins, three against higher-ranked opponents. This year, he’s been playing great, making his maiden Grand Slam quarter-final in Melbourne followed by the semis of Delray Beach last month.
His draw is tricky (Shelton in the quarters if he makes it that far), but I just have a feeling this guy is going to continue his upward trajectory. Learn more about Learner Tien’s racquet.
Arthur Fils @ 126.00 (+12500)
These odds on Fils are a steal. The Frenchman is a former top-15 player who seemed set to crack the top 10 last year before he got injured. His vicious top spin is perfect for these conditions, as evidenced by his quarter-final run last year – where he led Medvedev by a break in the third set before going down in a deciding tiebreak.
Yes, Fils is recently returned from injury and has only played nine matches since last July. However, he’s hit the ground running, making the Doha final a few weeks ago and showing his time off wasn’t wasted. I like a bet on Fils at these odds.
Joao Fonseca @ 151.00 (+15000)
This is by far my riskiest bet. Fonseca has a bright future ahead of him, and has already achieved a lot for a teenager. However, there’s no denying he’s had a poor start to the year, with a back niggle seeing him miss a few tournament and go 1-3 across the four times he has stepped on court.
But he did show a little sparkle in his most recent outing, winning the double alongside Marcelo Melo. Momentum and confidence are key at Fonseca’s age, and perhaps getting this title under his belt – albeit in a different format – is all he needs to snap back into his winning ways.
Considering he beat five top-20 players last year and won two titles, a healthy and confident Fonseca going all the way here isn’t entirely unrealistic.
Betting tips and value bets for Men’s Indian Wells 2026:
If you don’t have the risk palate to take one of these dark horse bets, here are a few other markets I’m high on this week:
- Fils to win quarter three @ 15.00 (+1400)
I won’t expound this bet too heavily as I’ve already covered my case for Fils above and in our men’s Indian Wells draw preview. However, odds of 15.00 (+1400) are a great way of hedging the Frenchman here. I expect he’ll do great, but admittedly taking out the title might be a bridge too far. He does have a soft quarter though, with seeds like Zverev, Musetti and Auger-Aliassime all struggling here in the past. Back him to make the quarters for a tidy return.
- American player to win @ 11.00 (+1000)
This market bundles together a whole raft of American top players and takes them against the field. We’re talking two of the top seven title favorites, Shelton and Fritz, as well as dark horses Tien and Korda. There’s also the likes of Tommy Paul, Tiafoe, Brandon Nakashima, Alex Michelsen and Reilly Opelka who are outside shots. At these odds (from BetOnline), it’s a punt I like considering the wide net it casts.
- Majchrzak vs Mpetshi Perricard 30+ aces @ 2.50 (+150)
Everything I’m seeing from the qualifying action so far in Indian Wells is that this year’s surface is playing faster than ever. Last year, there were 265 aces hit across 36 qualifying matches. This year, there were 240 aces landed over just 16 matches yesterday. Extrapolate that and well over double the amount of aces are occurring in 2026.
I don’t think bookies have caught up to this trend yet, so jumping on a high ace count in a match like Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is a great shout. These courts are typically a struggle for big servers, so ace totals are generously priced. Back 30+ aces in this first-round match for a 2,50 (+150) return, or take a swing on 40+ at 6.50 (+550) if you’re feeling frisky!