Preseason Notes – March 5, 2026
Pitchers to Target
Jack Flaherty, SP, DET
Flaherty’s ERA took a big hit last season, dropping from 3.17 in 2014 to a disappointing 4.64 in 2025. The decline wasn’t completely undeserved as his BB/9 rose from 2.11 to 3.30, but he still struck out batters at an elite rate (10.51 K/9) and finished with a 3.69 xFIP, so there’s every reason to believe that he’ll bounce back in 2026. On the strikeout front, he is one of only 4 pitchers in MLB to post a K/9 north of 10.5 in each of the past 2 seasons (min 150 IP). His ADP is currently around 200, making him an excellent target late in drafts.
Braxton Ashcraft, SP, PIT
Ashcraft was great in his first taste of the big leagues last season, posting a 2.71 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, and 71:24 K:BB across 69.2 IP (26 games, 18 starts) for the Pirates. His numbers were actually better as a starter; in 8 starts, he recorded a 2.16 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, and 35:10 K:BB across 33.1 IP. He had a strong GB rate at 50.3% and allowed just 3 HR’s all season. Pitching half of his games in Pittsburgh should allow him to continue limiting the long ball. He is expected to be part of the Pirates starting rotation this year, especially with Jared Jones opening the season on the 60-day IL. With an ADP outside the top 300, Ashcraft could be a great value for fantasy owners.
Aaron Nola, SP, PHI
Nola’s stock has plummeted this season, which is not too hard to understand considering that he finished 2025 with a disastrous 6.01 ERA. Nola has had down years in the past, but not this bad. But a lot of his peripherals remained solid, including his 9.25 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, and 3.71 xFIP. There was a lot of bad luck for Nola in 2025, as he allowed a .315 BABIP, 62.4% LOB%, and 18.2% HR/FB, all well below his career averages. Nola’s ADP is currently outside the top 200, and he could end up being a big bargain at that price.
George Kirby, SP, SEA
Kirby posted an ERA north of 4.00 for the first time in his career last season, clocking in at 4.21. Ironically, his xFIP was a career best 3.25 and he also recorded a career high strikeout rate at 9.79 K/9. His BB rate climbed a bit from his typically elite levels, but it was still a very strong 2.07 BB/9. Kirby struggled disproportionately with men on base last season allowing a .317 BA compared to .211 with the bases empty, so that’s likely to even out. Right now, Kirby is going in the 6th or 7th rounds of drafts and he’s an excellent choice at that spot.
Zack Wheeler, SP, PHI
There’s always a risk in drafting a player who isn’t expected to be ready for Opening Day because of injury, but Wheeler isn’t expected to miss that much time and he’s been a top-5 pitcher in MLB for the past half decade. In fact, 2025 may have been his best season yet, as he recorded a 2.71 ERA, a career best 2.73 xFIP, also a career best 11.73 K/9, and a superb 1.98 BB/9. His current ADP is outside the top-120, which should make him a top priority for fantasy owners. Yes, he’s almost 36 and coming off an injury. But you could be getting one of the best pitchers in baseball in the 11th round.
Michael King, SP, SD
2025 was mostly a lost season for King as he was limited to 73.1 IP due to multiple injuries. He was still pretty good when on the mound, recording a 3.44 ERA and 9.33 K/9 across 15 starts. He is expected to be ready to go for the start of the 2026 campaign, as he will look to regain his 2024 form, when he dominated with 2.95 ERA and 201 K’s in 173.2 IP. The Padres will likely be cautious with their ace considering how much time he missed last season, but he should deliver top-notch results when on the mound, making him a value in the middle rounds of drafts (current ADP of 136).
Edward Cabrera, SP, CHC
Cabrera has had some ups and downs throughout his career, but last year was mostly ups, as he compiled a 3.53 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 9.81 K/9, and 3.14 BB/9. The walk rate was especially significant, as his previous best mark in that category was 4.14 BB/9. If he can maintain even most of the control gains he made last season, he should be in line for another strong season in 2026, his first with the Cubs. That should make him a solid play for where he’s currently getting drafted with an ADP near 200.
Around the League
Vance Honeycutt, OF, BAL
Honeycutt has been the story of the spring so far for the Orioles, as he has now hit 4 HR’s in 4 spring at bats for the MLB club! This is all the more shocking considering that in A+ ball last season, he hit just 5 HR’s in 436 PA’s while posting a putrid .559 OPS. He still has a long way to go before making his MLB debut, but he was a 1st round pick in 2024, and perhaps this showing will be a turning point in what has until now been an underwhelming minor league career.
Shane Baz, SP, BAL
Baz allowed 3 ER’s in 3 IP against the Astros on Wednesday with 5 K’s and 2 BB’s. He appears to be a lock to make the Orioles rotation, although his performance is anything but. Baz was once a promising Rays prospect, but he has been inconsistent in two seasons since returning from TJS, and last year recorded a 4.87 ERA. He did have a 3.88 xFIP and 9.52 K/9 last season, so he has a good shot to rebound in 2026, however to expect the top-tier numbers we were hoping for with Tampa Bay is overly optimistic.
Payton Tolle, SP, BOS
Tolle was dominant in his spring outing against the Yankees on Wednesday, striking out 7 in 3 shutout innings of relief. Tolle is looking to make a case to be the 5th starter in the Red Sox rotation this season, although Johan Oviedo appears to be the frontrunner for that job at the moment. Tolle made 7 appearances (3 starts) for the Red Sox last season, and while his ERA was an elevated 6.06, he did have a respectable 3.98 xFIP thanks to 19 K’s in 16.2 IP. Across 91.2 MiLB IP last season, he was quite good, compiling a 3.04 ERA, 2.52 xFIP, and 133:23 K:BB. Even if he does start the season in AAA, we should see him back in Boston at some point in 2026.
Luis Gil, SP, NYY
Gil had a strong showing against the Red Sox on Wednesday, striking out 6 across 3 shutout innings. Gil recorded a 3.32 ERA across 57 IP in an injury-riddled campaign last season, but his underlying stats were not pretty. His K/9 dropped to a pedestrian 6.47 (from 10.15 in 2024), while his walk rate rose to an unacceptable 5.21 BB. Those are not draftable numbers. We’ll see if Gil can keep up a hot spring and give fantasy owners some confidence in him heading into the season.
George Lombard Jr., SS, NYY
Lombard had a big day against Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox on Wednesday, going 2-4 with his 1st HR of the spring. The Yankees SS prospect has had a strong spring thus far, as he’s gone 4-12 with 5 BB’s. Lombard hasn’t shown a ton of pop yet in his minor league career, but he has shown the ability to get on base, as well as steal bases, and the power could still come. He has yet to play above AA ball, so there’s no guarantee we see him in MLB this season, but Yankees fans have something to look forward to.
Jeffrey Springs, SP, ATH
Springs had a strong start against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, striking out 4 in 2.1 shutout IP. This was a nice rebound after he was roughed up for 4 ER’s in 1.2 IP in his spring debut. Springs is coming off a disappointing 2025, his first full season back from TJS, as his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-low 7.26 K/9, while his ERA rose to an uninspiring 4.11 (and his 4.64 xFIP suggests that even that was lucky). Springs is not a recommended fantasy play until he shows that the strikeouts are back.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, ATL
With Jurickson Profar out for the season due to suspension, Yastrzemski could take on more of a full time role in the Braves outfield. Yaz has been a pretty steady producer throughout his career, as he has hit at least 15 HR’s in every full season of his career. He’s not a BA asset however, hitting south of .240 each of the last 5 seasons, and he has never reached double-digit steals. He did cut his K% to a career best 19.4% last season, so a rise in BA could be due if he keeps that up. There still isn’t a lot to get excited about in his fantasy profile though.
Hunter Greene, SP, CIN
Greene has some discomfort in his elbow and is scheduled for an MRI later this week. We don’t have a lot of information yet, but this is at least somewhat of a concern. Greene has developed into an ace for the Reds over the past two seasons, posting a combined 2.76 ERA and 10.50 K/9 across the 2024-2025 seasons. And last year, he took things a step further by lowering his walk rate to 2.17 BB/9, which is quite impressive since that number had never before been below 3.40. Greene has had some injury scares in the past, but still managed to make 26 and 19 starts the last two seasons. Hopefully for the Reds and fantasy owners, this doesn’t turn into a long term absence.