The Oklahoma City Thunder have won five games in a row heading into a home date with the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night, tipping off at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN. Oklahoma City comes in with an NBA-best 49-15 record, while Golden State (32-30) looks like it is destined for the Western Conference play-in tournament.
Let’s dive into my Warriors vs. Thunder predictions.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Money line: Warriors +550 / Thunder -800
Spread: Warriors +14.5 (-115) / Thunder -14.5 (-105)
Total: Over 219.5 (-110) / Under 219.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best bet #1: Thunder -14.5 (-105)
Oklahoma City has absolutely owned the head-to-head series so far this season. They won all three of the previous matchups and did so by 24, 12, and 38 points. The previous meeting in OKC came on November 11, when the Thunder rolled 126-102. They led that game by an absurd 35 points through three quarters before stepping off the gas pedal. What’s especially concerning for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry even played in that game (he missed the next two). Even with Curry, Golden State still got completely run out of the Paycom Center.
With Curry still sidelined by a knee injury, there is little reason to think that the visitors can be competitive on Saturday. They are also without Moses Moody (wrist), De’Anthony Melton (knee), and Will Richard (ankle), while Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is questionable. Let’s be honest; it’s hard to believe that Porzingis will play after missing the last six games.
The Warriors are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 outings and 0-3 ATS in the last three head-to-head.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best player prop bet: Cason Wallace Under 10.5 points (-105)
Wallace has been a complete disaster in every game between Golden State and Oklahoma City in 2025-26. In three head-to-head matchups, the Kentucky product has scored a grand total of nine points. No, that is not a misprint — he is averaging 3.0 ppg against the Warriors. In those three encounters, Wallace went 4-for-16 from the field and 1-for-7 from three.
Given his current form, why should we expect Wallace to suddenly turn things around on Saturday? He has scored exactly four points in two of the last three games and has been kept to single-digits in five of the last nine. Wallace is a horrendous 1-for-12 from three-point range in the last four contests.