From the first lap of pre-season, there has been plenty of suspicion surrounding Mercedes and their 2026 package. Heading into this weekend, engineers across the paddock believed the W18 wasn’t being pushed anywhere near its limits in testing.
Even in Free Practice 1, when Ferrari topped the timing sheets, Mercedes’ best times were treated with scepticism.
Just 24 hours later, these doubts have undeniably been validated. George Russell obliterated the field in qualifying, taking a commanding Pole Position in Australia ahead of teammate Kimi Antonelli.
The W18 showed no signs of weaknesses, both in the straights and the corners. Based on the final result from Q3, the Silver Arrows are 8 tenths clear of the field.
Of course, Saturday’s snapshot only tells the story of qualifying trim. There is reason to believe Mercedes will be even further ahead of the field on Sunday with high fuel.
Mercedes confirm pre-season suspicions
Max Verstappen was the first to declare Mercedes the clear favourites for 2026. The Dutchman was one of many that were unconvinced by W18’s performance in Bahrain testing.
Unsurprisingly, George Russell argued that Red Bull were the ones guilty of keeping something in reserve. Only two days ago, Russell claimed that Mercedes haven’t done any “strategic poker” in terms of concealing their pace.
It seems safe to assume this was inaccurate, given how dramatically Toto Wolff’s team have progressed this weekend.
After Friday Practice, LWOS analysed what FP2’s race simulations looked like. The evidence was overwhelming – the W18 is in a league of its own.
Mercedes were setting faster laps – by roughly half a second – than Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren. To rub salt in the wounds, Mercedes did their race simulations on hard tyres – whilst the other top teams used mediums and softs.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who qualified in 4th, expects Mercedes to extend the gap on Sunday:
“We were nowhere near Mercedes… I am not so surprised. I was in front of the cameras yesterday, I don’t know if I said the number, but I thought they were maybe half a second in front.
“In the end, they are maybe eight tenths in front. This morning I did not expect what they’ve shown – I think they were a lot more turned down than what everybody thought in the paddock…
“I cannot do anything [to catch Mercedes on Sunday]. Yesterday they were super, super strong [in race simulations].
“And I don’t think they had the engine turned up the way they did this morning.
“I don’t even know if they were full power in qualifying, maybe they kept a little bit. Because this morning was just crazy.
“Tomorrow I don’t know what to expect, but I think they will be in another world. Probably a little bit less than a second faster than anyone else.”
Potential to increase the gap on Sunday
The problem that other teams have is that, fundamentally, the W18 is strong in so many areas.
For obvious reasons, the Mercedes engine is dominating headlines. The power unit’s biggest strength is its battery, which harvests and redeploys energy far more efficiently than anyone else.
As a result, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli enjoy better top speeds than their rivals. They also carry more speed into the corners, particularly the high-speed ones, giving them another significant cushion.
For other Mercedes-powered teams, it will take time to understand how to optimise the German manufacturer’s engine.
This is something McLaren team principal Andrea Stella mentioned in the build-up to this weekend, emphasising that a substantial chunk of performance could be unlocked by maximising the Mercedes power unit.
In many ways, the Woking-based outfit are suffering from the disadvantages of being a customer team. Not only have Mercedes put together a stronger aerodynamic package, but their engine plays to the W18’s strengths.
The Silver Arrows also have a more intimate knowledge of their power unit than their customers. Looking ahead to the next few rounds, it is difficult to imagine this gap from being significantly reduced.
Reversing this trend will take time, especially for teams without Mercedes power. Ferrari, for example, need to make big strides if they are to put themselves in true contention.
Because of the increased demands and challenges of increasing a race distance, the Mercedes engine’s battery efficiency could become an even more relevant advantage.
In this sense, it seems only reliability issues or other misfortune can spoil the German team’s party in Melbourne.