For the second straight season, we have a historically dominant group of four at the top of college basketball.
Before last season, there were only six teams to ever finish with above a plus-35 net rating at KenPom, which has been tracking efficiency margins since 1997. Last season, all four No. 1 seeds were above 35, and this season, all four projected No. 1 seeds (Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida) are currently above 35.
Before this season, all 10 teams to hit that mark have made the Final Four. So it’s possible we’re tracking toward a Final Four with all No. 1 seeds again.
I dug a little deeper to see how dominant these four have been using in-conference efficiency margins. Here’s where each ranks in their respective leagues since 1997:
| EM rank | |
|---|---|
|
Duke |
3 |
|
Michigan |
3 |
|
Arizona |
11 |
|
Florida |
5 |
The two ACC teams ranked above Duke (1999 Duke and 2025 Duke) both made the Final Four, as did the two teams ranked above Michigan in the Big Ten (2000 Michigan State and 2005 Illinois). Of the 10 teams above Arizona in the Big 12, five made the Final Four and two (2008 Kansas and 2021 Baylor) won the national championship. The four teams above Florida in the SEC all reached at least the Elite Eight and two made the Final Four (2012 Kentucky and 2015 Kentucky).
So historically, teams that have dominated their power conferences at the level these four have dominated have performed quite well in March.
This is the final week for my Top 25 this season. Thanks to everyone who has followed along for another year. This week’s featured teams: Duke, Michigan, Florida, St. John’s, Wisconsin and UCLA.
Dropped out: Kentucky
1. Duke (29-2)
Last week: Beat NC State 93-64 and No. 17 North Carolina 76-61
Maliq Brown has the highest steals rate of a player 6-foot-9 or taller of anyone in KenPom’s database since he’s been tracking, dating back to 2005-06. Brown, who is 6-9, is only one of three players 6-9 or taller to rank in the top 10 over that span.
Duke was without starting center Patrick Ngongba on Saturday in the win over UNC, and Jon Scheyer has the luxury to plug in the player with the second-highest steals rate in college basketball. Duke’s defense is actually better with Brown at center (94.0 points per 100 possessions allowed) than in the non-Brown Ngongba minutes (96.9), per CBB Analytics. Brown filled up the stat sheet against the Heels with 15 points, nine rebounds, two assists, a block and five steals.
Offenses have to be wary of Brown in multiple spots.
He has excellent anticipation in passing lanes:
When he hedges ball screens, he’s the best in the country at reaching in and getting his hand on the dribble:
And if you show him the ball, he’s going to swipe it:
Duke led the ACC in defensive turnover rate in conference games for the first time since 2009, and Brown is a big reason why.
2. Michigan (29-2)
Last week: Beat Iowa 71-68 and No. 8 Michigan State 90-80
Michigan is the best 2-point shooting high-major team in college basketball, so when Dusty May’s team shoots the ball well from beyond the arc, it goes very well. In Sunday’s win over Michigan State, for instance, the Wolverines made 10-of-22 3s. Against high-major competition, they’ve now made double-digit 3s 10 times. Every time, they’ve won by double-digits, with an average margin of victory of 23.6 points.
4. Florida (25-6)
Last week: Beat Mississippi State 108-74 and Kentucky 84-77
Florida has the eighth-best offense in college hoops despite shooting just 31.3 percent from 3, and one reason why is transition offense. The Gators score 19.7 transition points per game, per Synergy, third-most nationally among high-majors.
But in the half-court, one of the things that makes the Gators hard to guard is bigs who can pass. Alex Condon, at 6-11, is second on the team in assists, and Todd Golden puts Condon in spots to amplify his passing.
An example: Condon set up Thomas Haugh for a dribble-handoff 3 on Saturday in the first half against Kentucky, while the Gators set up a stagger screen on the other side of the floor. Look at where UK’s defenders are trying to handle that off-the-ball action.
So next half-court possession, Golden set up a similar alignment, with Haugh, who had just hit the 3, as the shooter getting the stagger screen. The off-the-ball defenders were once again focused on taking away that action, and watch what Florida does:
Great recognition by Florida’s coaches, and it helps to have a player like Condon, who has at least three assists in eight games during Florida’s 11-game winning streak. Florida is scoring 131 points per 100 possessions with Condon on the floor during the winning streak, per CBB Analytics.
15. St. John’s (25-6)
Last week: Beat Georgetown 72-69 and Seton Hall 72-65
Rick Pitino has now won back-to-back regular-season conference titles five times over his career after winning the Big East once again this weekend. But the last time it happened at St. John’s? That would be in 1961 and 1962, when St. John’s went a combined 9-0 over two years in the Metropolitan New York Conference, which included New York University, St. Francis, Manhattan and Fordham. That darn conference realignment really made it tough on the Johnnies.
20. Wisconsin (22-9)
Last week: Beat Maryland 78-45 and No. 15 Purdue 97-93
Michigan became the first team in the Big Ten to win all of its road games since 1976, when Indiana went undefeated. If you were to take Michigan’s win probability at tipoff for each of those games, Michigan had a 7.064 percent chance to win all of those games.
Wisconsin didn’t win all of its road games, but it might have the best trio of road wins in college hoops this year, winning at Michigan, at Illinois and at Purdue. Using the same methodology, here’s Wisconsin’s odds for winning all three of those games: 0.054978 percent.
25. UCLA (21-10)
Last week: Beat No. 9 Nebraska 72-52 and USC 89-68
Current teams with at least three wins over my top 15 teams in these rankings: Michigan (6), Arizona (5), Wisconsin (4), Texas Tech (4), Duke, (3), UConn (3), Iowa State (3), Kansas (3) and … UCLA (3).
They were all home wins for the Bruins (Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska), but in the range of teams to consider for the final few spots in the Top 25, no one has a better collection of quality wins. Who you beat matters, which is why I haven’t ranked Miami (Ohio), which has yet to play a Quad 1 opponent and has just two Q2 wins. Plus the RedHawks rank 92nd at BPI, 90th at KenPom and 86th at Torvik. Using the averages of those three ranking systems, UCLA comes in at No. 25.
If you’re looking for a team next week in the 7-10 seed range to go on a run, consider the Bruins. Since Feb. 21, they’ve won four of five — including the wins over Illinois and Nebraska — and using Torvik’s sorting tool, the Bruins are the fifth-best team in the country during that timespan, trailing only the four likely No. 1 seeds.