Following a Sunday that saw significant results, including 20-year-old Learner Tien upsetting world No. 8 Ben Shelton and Jannik Sinner maintaining his form against Denis Shapovalov, the bottom half of the draw now takes center stage.
Here is a preview of two key matchups as players look to secure a spot in the round of 16.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez
Daniil Medvedev, the 11th seed this year, enters this match looking to maintain his momentum after a successful title run in Dubai just last week. While he has historically found the slow hard courts of Indian Wells “strange,” his recent form suggests he has acclimated well to the 12-hour time difference and he also had quite an ordeal to even get here while being stuck in Dubai for a long time. He faces Sebastian Baez, a tough competitor who excels at extending rallies. Medvedev leads their head-to-head 1-0, having won their only previous meeting at the 2023 US Open in straight sets.
Tournament Results So Far
- Daniil Medvedev: After a first-round bye, Medvedev delivered a clinical performance to defeat Alejandro Tabilo 6-4, 6-2. He struck the ball cleanly and appeared unfazed by the desert conditions, breaking Tabilo’s serve three times.
- Sebastian Baez: The Argentine had a straightforward start to his campaign, defeating Chun-Hsin Tseng and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets. Baez has 14 ATP-level match wins this year and find himself in great form, not only on clay courts this time.
Predictions for Medvedev vs Baez
Baez has been impressive so far in California but this is a tough ask and I can see Medvedev dictate rallies and control the match today. Medvedev to win in 2.
Casper Ruud vs. Valentin Vacherot
This is perhaps the most intriguing “mismatch” on paper. Casper Ruud, the 13th seed and three-time Grand Slam finalist, faces the 24th-seeded Valentin Vacherot. While Ruud is the veteran, Vacherot has been the talk of the tour over the last 12 months, having climbed from outside the top 250 to inside the top 30, a rise highlighted by an upset of Novak Djokovic in late 2025 and the win in Shanghai. This will be the first professional meeting between the two.
Tournament Results So Far
- Casper Ruud: Ruud faced a tough test in his opening match against Alexander Shevchenko. He took the first set comfortably but had to fight through a tense second-set tiebreak to win 6-1, 7-6(4). Ruud was particularly impressive on his second serve, winning 87% of those points.
- Valentin Vacherot: The Monegasque player continued his steady form with a 7-5, 7-5 win over Nuno Borges. Vacherot’s big serve was his primary weapon, helping him save multiple break points and close out both sets just before they reached tiebreaks.
Predictions for Ruud vs Vacherot
Ruud clearly needs to step up his game, looking at his recent tournaments, and I think he has the edge on these courts over Vacherot. It might be tighter than the odds suggest though. Ruud to win in 3.