Preseason Prep – March 10, 2026
Hunter Goodman (C-COL) made an impression in 2025 as he posted a .278 average to go with 31 HR, 91 RBI, and 73 R over 579 PA in his age-25 campaign. He did benefit from a .331 BABIP that inflated his average a bit, so fantasy owners would be wise to expect a bit of regression in that department going forward; a .250-.260 average seems more reasonable. To his credit, Goodman did trim his strikeout rate from 28.5% in 2024 (224 PA) to 26.5% last season. But his overall (70% in 2025, 70.5% in 2024) and in-zone (identical 83.5% in 2024 and 2025) contact rates changed little, raising concerns about his average going forward. However, Goodman did register a lot of loud contact in 2025, with Statcast showing a 47% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 91 mph that he maximized with an average launch angle of 17.3. It’s hard not to like him in 2026 as he pushes into his prime and calls Coors Field his home park. He should be a top 5 backstop come season’s end as we are projecting a .264 average to go with another 30 bombs.
Jonathan Aranda (1B-TB) took a big step forward in 2025, with a fractured wrist limiting his playing time and production. But he’s healthy heading into the 2026 campaign and that’s exciting after he recorded a .316 average to go with 14 HR, 59 RBI, and 56 R across 422 PA in his age-27 campaign a year ago. Fantasy owners should expect a lower average as Aranda rode a .409 BABIP to that .316 clip, but a solid average of .270 or better is quite plausible given his plus hit tool. While his overall contact rate of 77% was solid enough, his 83.5% in-zone contact rate wasn’t great but Aranda shined in quality of contact as Statcast shows a 54% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 93 mph while an average launch angle of 14.5 resulted in 26% liners and 35.5% flyballs. There’s certainly top-10 1B potential here, and the volume of loud contact leaves open the possibility of a homer total well north of the 20 that many models have him hitting. We have him projected for .266 and 26 HR in 2026.
Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/OF-BOS) took a small step forward in his age-24 season a year ago, finishing the campaign with career highs in multiple departments, with a .249 average, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 84 R, and 20 SB across 587 PA. He did improve his strikeout rate significantly (down to 20% from 26.5% in 2024) while modestly raising his walk rate (from 2.5% in 2024 to 5%). His volume of contact increased significantly, with his overall contact rate climbing from 69.5% in 2024 to 75.5% in 2025 with his in-zone contact rate jumping from 79.5% to 85%. Meanwhile, Rafaela’s Statcast profile featured a 38.5% hard-hit rate (37% in 2024), 9% barrel rate (8.5%), and average exit velo of 88.5 mph (86.5); those were all up from 2024. Moreover, a .289 BABIP seems a bit low for a guy with his kind of speed. We are a bit bullish on Rafaela as he see him as a 8-10ish 2B as he’s projected to hit north of .250 with his first 20-20 campaign in 2026.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS-ARI) pushed into the crowded ranks of the top SS options with a stellar 2025 campaign in which he hit .290 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, 98 R, and 27 SB across 720 PA. In his age-25 campaign, the switch-hitter walked (13%) more often than he fanned (11.5%) while recording lofty 89.5% overall and 93.5% in-zone contact rates. Perdomo is a very patient and discerning hitter as he posted a 39% swing rate and 19.5% chase rate. Quality of contact was, however, not impressive, as he recorded a 32% hard-hit rate, 6% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. While his plus speed and contact ability make a quality average and 20+ steals quite feasible again in 2026, one can fairly question whether 20 HR is again possible; fantasy owners should expect 12-15 and be grateful if he hits more. He’s a top-10ish SS option in fantasy as we project a .272 average with 16 HR and 24 SB in 2026.
Eugenio Suarez (3B-ARI) heads back to Cincinnati for his age-34 campaign after hitting .228 with 49 HR, 118 RBI, and 91 R over 657 PA a season ago with the Diamondbacks and Mariners. Last season, Suarez fanned at a 30% clip while his walk rate declined for the third straight season to come in at 7% and his 15.5% swinging-strike rate was a career high. Meanwhile, Suarez’s 69% overall and 81.5% in-zone contact rates were among the lowest of his career. He has truly sold out for power at this stage of his career, as his average launch angle of 21.9 was a career high while his 47.5% hard-hit rate, 14.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90 mph were all among the highest he has recorded. Although Chase Field has an identical overall park factor (103) as Great American Ballpark (we don’t even need to mention T-Mobile Park here, even though I did anyway), Cincinnati’s field is much friendlier (123) for HR than Arizona’s (88), which only bodes well for Suarez. Especially given his contact issues and advancing age, we project a .221 average with about 34 HR in 2026.
Jarren Duran (OF-BOS) underwhelmed in 2025 as he hit .256 with 16 HR, 84 RBI, 86 R, and 24 SB across 696 PA in his age-28 season. Duran’s strikeout rate reverted to his career norm (24.5% in 2025 and career, 22% in 2024) as his swinging-strike rate climbed from 10.5% to 12.5%. But his in-zone contact rate remained steady at 87.5% while his Statcast profile improved across the board as he logged a 47% hard-hit rate, 11% barrel rate, average exit velo of 92 mph, and an average launch angle of 12, all of which were career highs. Given those figures, one might expect a bit of a rebound in the power and average departments as we project him for a .267-26-22 campaign in 2026.
Riley Greene (OF-DET) put together an interesting 2025 season in which he hit .258 with 36 HR, 111 RBI, and 84 runs scored across 655 PA, with a 121 wRC+. He traded some contact for more pop as his overall (72%) and in-zone (80.5%) contact rates were career lows as his swinging-strike rate reached a career-high 14.5%. Meanwhile, Greene’s hard-hit rate came in at 45.5% and his average exit velo sat at 90 mph while he recorded a career-high average launch angle of 15 and a career-best 17% barrel rate. The result was a career-low 41% groundball rate and career-high 39% flyball rate. It is concerning that Greene’s production fell off during the second half, as he hit just .218 with 12 dingers, 33 RBI, and 31 runs scored with a 90 wRC+ in 258 PA after the All-Star break. We have him projected for a .251 average to go with 28 HR in 2026.
Andy Pages (OF-LAD) was a pleasant surprise in his age-24 campaign a year ago, recording a .272 average to go with 27 HR, 86 RBI, 74 R, and 14 SB across 624 PA. Although he did not draw many walks in the loaded Dodgers lineup (4.5%), he also didn’t fan a ton (21.5%) while posting a solid 80% overall contact rate and 88% in-zone contact rate while his 10.5% swinging-strike rate wasn’t bad. His quality of contact, however, was subpar as Statcast shows a 37% hard-hit rate, 8.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph. Ultimately, a 25-10 campaign with a solid average is very doable again in 2026, but know that much more in either department is unlikely as we have him projected for .264-24-12.
Oneil Cruz (OF-PIT) completed his worst MLB season in 2025, posting a .200 average to go with 20 HR, 61 RBI, 62 R, and 38 SB across 544 PA, with a career-low 86 wRC+. While he drew some walks (12%), Cruz fanned too often (32%) as his overall (68%) and in-zone (79%) contact rates remained poor. Meanwhile, he more often than not put a charge into the ball when he did get the bat on it, as Statcast shows a 56.5% hard-hit rate, 18% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 96 mph, although an average launch angle of 8.1 did generate a 48% groundball rate, 37.5% flyball rate, and 14.5% liner rate. Concerningly, his performance worsened over the course of the season as he registered a .177 average, 4 dingers, 24 RBI, 13 runs scored, and 9 steals after the All-Star break, with a putrid 56 wRC+. Cruz seems to be all but a lock for a 20-30 season, but can he get his average back to at least .240 or so? A .262 BABIP (.311 career) did suppress his average a bit last year, so smart money says he rebounds a bit in 2026. We have him projected for .230-29-32.
Cristopher Sanchez (SP-PHI) translated his strong performance during spring training into a breakout campaign in 2026 as the southpaw logged a 2.50 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 2.77 xFIP over a career-high 202 IP in his age-28 season. The peripherals largely indicate that the stat line was legitimate as Sanchez continued to induce lots of grounders (58% in 2025, 57.5% career) while raising his average velocity on all pitches by a full tick (sinker was up to 95.5 mph in 2025 from 94.5 in 2024). Even as he maintained his plus control, the lefty elevated his swinging-strike rate to a career-best 14% while the opposition’s contact rate crashed to 72% overall (75.5% career) and 81% in zone (85% career). Fantasy owners should draft him as a top-10 SP for fantasy, a #1 SP but not quite an ace since his strikeouts aren’t quite at the level of a Skenes, Crochet, or Skubal. We project him for an ERA about 3 to go with a K/9 of 9 or so.
Ryan Pepiot (SP-TB) put together a solid 2025 as he threw a career-high 167.2 IP in which he logged a 3.86 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.07 xFIP in his age-27 campaign. Underneath the hood, things were similarly good but not great as he registered an 11.5% swinging-strike rate, 76.5% overall contact rate, and 83% in-zone contact rate. But Statcast does show some loud contact as opposing hitters posted a 42.5% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90 mph against Pepiot. Encouragingly, he recorded more punchouts down the stretch, with a 9.6 K/9 in 53.1 IP after the All-Star break, fueled by a slight increase in his swinging-strike rate (12%). Fantasy owners should probably expect something along the lines of his 2025 figures in 2026 as we project a 4ish ERA to go with a K per IP, although it’s possible he takes a step forward as he pushes further into his prime.
Robbie Ray (SP-SF) put together his first full season since 2022 and the results were good as he posted a 3.65 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 4.29 xFIP across 182.1 IP. The gap between the ERA and xFIP does point to a .268 BABIP suppressing his ERA a bit (.296 career), but some of Ray’s peripherals were solid overall as he yielded a modest 74.5% overall and 83% in-zone contact rate while finishing the season with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate. On the other hand, his Statcast profile was among the worst of his career as opposing hitters registered a 44.5% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph. Expect his ERA to come in closer to 4 in 2026, but since Ray can offer a K/9 of 9 or so, he should make for a solid mid-rotation arm in fantasy.
Michael King (SP-SD) was solid in an injury-shortened 2025 season as he assembled a 3.44 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 4.20 xFIP across 73.1 IP. There are some concerns as an 81% strand rate and .263 BABIP suppressed his ERA a bit while his swinging-strike rate dipped from 12% in 2024 to 10.5% last season. Meanwhile, the opposition’s overall and in-zone contact rates climbed to 76% and 84.5%, respectively, after they came in at 73.5% and 81.5% in 2024. King also surrendered more loud contact in his age-30 season than he did the year before, with Statcast showing a 38% hard-hit rate (up from 30.5%), 11.5% barrel rate (6%), and average exit velocity of 88 mph (85.5). If those trends continue in 2026, fantasy owners should expect an ERA of about 4 with a K/9 of 9ish. He’s a solid fantasy SP3 with SP2 upside.
Spencer Strider (SP-TEX) returned to action in 2025 following an internal brace procedure to address his damaged right (throwing arm) UCL and was never quite his old self as he logged a 4.45 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 4.24 xFIP across 125.1 IP. Predictably, his control was off while, concerningly, his average fastball velocity was down from the 97-98 mph he averaged in 2021-2024 to 95.5 in 2025. Although his 14% swinging-strike rate was good, it was down from 2022-2024 while the opposition especially registered more contact inside the zone, with an 84.5% z-contact% a career high and well up from the 77% he averaged in 2022-2024. Opposing hitters, moreover, recorded more loud contact against him than ever before, with a 42.5% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.5 mph both career highs while a 10.5% barrel rate was also high (8.5% career). While it remains to be seen whether Strider can regain his pre-injury form, it seems likely that he improves in 2026. We do expect him to regain much of his old form as he have him projected for an ERA about 3.8 to go with a K/9 pushing 11.
Jack Leiter (SP-TEX) reportedly will not have to compete for a spot in the Rangers rotation during spring training as reports indicate that he has already secured a starting role. He improved down the stretch in 2025 as he registered a 3.86 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 4 BB/9 across 151.2 IP last season in his age-25 season. A 4.53 xFIP does indicate that a .267 BABIP suppressed his ERA while a 10.5% swinging-strike rate was unimpressive. However, Leiter’s numbers did improve after the All-star break as he recorded a 3.28 ERA (4.37 before) , 10 K/9 (7.7) , 3.7 BB/9(4.3) , and 4.17 xFIP (4.85) over 71.1 IP during the second half. During that span, his swinging-strike rate climbed a little while his control improved and he yielded a bit less loud contact, with a 43% hard-hit rate (44.5% before), 10% barrel rate (11.5%), and average exit velo of 89.5 mph (91.5). All of that is to say that he could emerge as a #3-4 SP in fantasy in 2026 as we project him for a 4.30 ERA with about a K per IP.