The quarterfinal lineup in Indian Wells will be set by the end of Wednesday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Casper Ruud. Unseeded Alex Michelsen tries to continue his run at the expense of Daniil Medvedev.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (13) Casper Ruud
Alcaraz and Ruud once faced each other with a Grand Slam title and the No. 1 ranking on the line (Alcaraz won in four sets in the 2022 U.S. Open final). The story is much different this time around, because Ruud is down at 13th in the rankings and therefore has to go up against the top-ranked Spaniard as early as round four of a Masters 1000 tournament. Heading into this BNP Paribas Open showdown on Wednesday, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-1 and three of his five victories have come in straight sets.
Bidding for a third Indian Wells title, Alcaraz has advanced so far with defeats of Grigor Dimitrov and Arthur Rinderknech. The 22-year-old dropped a set to Rinderknech on Monday, but he was spectacular throughout the next two. Ruud fought past Alexander Shevchenko in a second-set tiebreaker and needed three sets to oust Valentin Vacherot. The Norwegian simply hasn’t played well this season (7-5 record) and now has to face the best player in the world, so it’s a rough situation all around.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex Michelsen
Medvedev and Michelsen will be squaring off for the third time in their careers. Michelsen gets another shot in this matchup after their 2025 Indian Wells encounter ended in his retirement after just two games. Unfortunately for the 21-year-old American, he already got two more chances against the Russian and lost both in straight sets — 6-4, 6-3 last summer in Halle and 6-4, 6-2 earlier this season in Brisbane.
There is no reason to think anything will be different on Wednesday. Michelsen is playing well, but he survived a 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(6) thriller against Ugo Humbert and benefited from an unusually poor performance by Taylor Fritz in round three. Meanwhile, Medvedev is on an absolute roll. The 29-year-old is 15-3 in 2026 with two titles (Brisbane and Dubai) and so far this fortnight he has absolutely destroyed both Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez. Expect Medvedev to maintain momentum without too much trouble.
Pick: Medvedev in 2