Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
After a brutal final weekend of the regular season for the bubble, things went from bad to worse on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Teams that were expected to win (Indiana, Texas) took losses to sub-.500 teams. Others in coin-flip situations (Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal, Cincinnati) also could not get the job done. SMU took an acceptable loss to Louisville, but the Mustangs are hanging on by a thin thread.
Only Santa Clara made a truly impactful positive move near the cut line. The Broncos’ WCC semifinal win over Saint Mary’s plus the struggles of the rest of the at-large pool suddenly have Herb Sendek’s team in great shape. Other squads won (Auburn), but those were not needle-moving results.
The overall failure of the at-large candidates has many fans clamoring for more mid-majors. Perhaps the late outcry for Belmont or Stephen F. Austin will reach the committee’s ears, but unfortunately, those teams remain fringe at-large hopefuls. The best chance to get more teams in from outside the power conferences is via bid stealers: the MAC, the Atlantic 10, the Mountain West and maybe even the American, if top seed South Florida makes and then loses in the title game.
To sum it all up, the current bubble is a mess. Florida State lurks as a potential party crasher if it can stun Duke in the ACC quarterfinals, while Oklahoma has surged into the picture, as well. The committee will have its hands full.
In a strange turn of events, we have awarded Lock status to Ohio State even though the Buckeyes have not played since our last edition. Fortunately for Ohio State, the number of bubble candidates that have lost already this week make it almost impossible for the Buckeyes to get passed by enough teams to knock them out of the field. Plus, Iowa beat Maryland, which means Ohio State cannot take a bad loss in the Big Ten tournament. Congratulations to coach Jake Diebler and company — sometimes, letting others fail is the right move!
Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Ohio State
Up to Should Be In: Santa Clara
Up to In the Mix: Oklahoma
Added to On the Fringe: Florida State
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Stanford, Boise State
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Current Totals
Locks: 38
Should Be In: 3
In the Mix: 13
On the Fringe: 9
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.) North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Florida State, Stanford
In The Mix
California (21-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 54)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference SOS, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: It is going to be a long, tense plane ride home to Berkeley after Cal went one-and-done at the ACC tournament in Charlotte. The Bears were beaten soundly by Florida State, preventing any chance of Mark Madsen’s team improving its case with a postseason run. We will not say the Bears are finished thanks to the carnage all around them, but this seems like a steep uphill path to the bracket, and Cal is out of climbing gear.
NC State (20-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an awful Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: NC State did what Stanford could not: Beat the mighty titan that is Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack picked a great time for their most efficient offensive performance of the season per Bart Torvik, exploding for 98 points on just 66 possessions. The defense remains leaky, but the important part was avoiding a bad loss (the same bad loss that knocked Stanford out of consideration). Mission accomplished, so Will Wade’s team is looking much more stable. Next up is a swing at Virginia, where a win would lock the Wolfpack into the field.
SMU (20-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, 9-13 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Like many other bubble rivals, SMU lost on Wednesday. The mild difference for the Mustangs: They got a somewhat helpful win against Syracuse Tuesday, and they arguably had the “best” loss on the bubble, falling to a surefire NCAA Tournament team in Louisville. That matters because it will create far less drag on their resume metrics, allowing them to “rise” simply by falling less. They remain an exceedingly questionable case right near the cut line and could be subject to the whims of bid stealers.
Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 50)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies could not beat Wake Forest for a second time in three weeks, falling in overtime as starting forward Amani Hansberry surprisingly had to sit due to injury. That’s only a Q2 loss, but the Hokies needed to gain ground in Charlotte. Instead they slid incrementally backwards. Barring a mini-miracle olive branch from the committee, Virginia Tech will not hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State
In the Mix
Cincinnati (18-15, 9-9); WAB rank: 6)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Quite simply, that is not going to be enough. Cincinnati desperately needed a run at the Big 12 tournament, but the Bearcats lost to UCF in the second round. They did not score a point in the final 2:17 of regulation and lost in overtime, likely dashing their hopes of clawing back into the NCAA Tournament with a late season rally. Their resume metrics simply are not good enough at this stage to realistically expect an at-large bid.
Big East
Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
Seton Hall (20-11, 10-10; WAB rank: 57)
Profile Strengths: Not much, right now.
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: A quick glance at the “Profile Strengths” line tells the tale of where Seton Hall stands after coming up short against St. John’s last Friday. The Pirates cannot really hang their hats on a single aspect of their profile, which means they are bordering on auto-bid-or-bust. Would a Big East tournament title game appearance, featuring wins over Creighton and St. John’s, be enough? Shaheen Holloway’s team needs to win both games and find out.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC
In The Mix
Indiana (18-14, 9-11; WAB rank: 51)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 7-14 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If other bubble teams are fading from view, then Indiana is outright sprinting away. The Hoosiers simply cannot stop losing. They dropped six of their final seven games, including two to sub-.500 Northwestern (at home and on a neutral court), and are now barely clinging to life. The Hoosiers’ profile just does not have enough juice to inspire any sort of confidence. Their only hope is that more bubble teams lose, zero bid stealers lose, and maybe the committee even feels bad for leaving Darian DeVries out of the field last year, when DeVries’ West Virginia team was a shocking exclusion.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Missouri, Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Missouri (20-11, 10-8; WAB rank: 40)
What They Need: The Tigers missed a golden chance to lock up a bid on Saturday, losing in overtime to Darius Acuff-less Arkansas. Even with that home loss, though, Mizzou remains in solid shape thanks to the carnage that happened below them on the bubble. The Tigers’ clean resume and high-end wins should get the job done, and they can seal the deal by taking down Kentucky in the SEC tournament.
Texas A&M (21-10, 11-7; WAB rank: 38)
What They Need: Texas A&M did what few Bubble Watch squads dared to try last weekend: Win a basketball game. The Aggies needed three overtimes to do it, but they eventually got a victory at LSU, and road wins in league play are precious at this time of year. Texas A&M now has strong metrics, five Q1 wins, and zero bad losses. A loss to Oklahoma plus multiple bid stealers could put the Aggies in a squeeze, but given the unlikelihood of that combination, we are moving Bucky McMillan’s team up a category.
In The Mix
Auburn (17-15, 7-11; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, way under .500 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Auburn’s victory over Mississippi State on Wednesday was not significant in and of itself. But when almost everyone else on the bubble loses, simply finding a way to put one in the win column matters. The Tigers should see a boost in their metrics as a result. They probably still need at least one win — a 17-16 record would be far too easy of a reason to leave them out — which means an upset of Tennessee is nearly mandatory. It sounds likely the Vols will get fabulous freshman Nate Ament back from an ankle injury, making that task even tougher.
Oklahoma (18-14, 7-11; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: Three Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, middling metrics.
Looking Ahead: Cincinnati has gotten nearly all of the public attention as a “formerly 11-12 overall team that has snuck its way into the bubble picture,” but Oklahoma deserves the same consideration. In fact, the Sooners’ resume numbers are better than those of the Bearcats, and they have a slightly better Q1 record. The Sooners’ SEC record will cause some angst, but it is likely all moot if they do not beat Texas A&M on Thursday.
Texas (18-14, 9-9; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: On Monday, we said all Texas needed to do was beat Oklahoma over the weekend to move up a category. The Longhorns did not oblige. On Wednesday, all they needed to do was beat 12-19 Ole Miss to bump themselves past the rest of the fading bubble. Again, the Longhorns did not oblige. They lost five of their final six games and now must wait in a cold sweat until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday evening while cheering ardently against any and all bid stealers. Texas is a true fringe case.
The Rest
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: Santa Clara
In the Mix: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Belmont, Nevada, South Florida
Should Be In
Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 37)
What They Need: The main thing the Broncos need at this point is limited bid stealers. They put on a strong showing at the WCC tournament, beating Saint Mary’s for a huge Q1 win and then competing with Gonzaga for 40 minutes (they led at halftime). The metrics look like that of an NCAA Tournament team. So long as the bubble does not constrict severely (MAC, A-10, Mountain West surprises), Santa Clara should be in the tournament for the first time since 1996.
In The Mix
New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: 8-7 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Lobos gave it 40 minutes of all-out effort, but they came up just short at Utah State to miss out on forcing a three-way tie atop the league to end the regular season. That also marked New Mexico’s second loss of the week, and the thin margins of the bubble knocked the Lobos further down the S-Curve. They await San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals but were rooting for Boise State instead of the Spartans on Wednesday night; beating the Broncos would have actually registered as a meaningful result.
San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs stopped their slide on Saturday, edging out UNLV at home to clinch the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West tournament. They probably need an appearance in the championship game to have a shot at an at-large, including what could be a “loser leaves town” showdown with fellow bubbler New Mexico in the semifinals. But first, SDSU must beat Colorado State, which just knocked off the Aztecs in late February.
VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: VCU’s Friday win at Dayton aged incredibly well as the rest of the weekend played out, and the Rams are in surprisingly solid shape after the dust has settled. The Rams have now won 13 of their last 14 and enter the A-10 tournament as the league’s clear hottest team thanks to Saint Louis’ alarming fade. That means the Rams have a reasonable path to the auto-bid in Pittsburgh, which would exterminate any lingering bubble concerns.
The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.