The story of the week so far has been the complete inability of bubble teams to win games. On Tuesday, the ACC took center stage as both Stanford and Virginia Tech lost to put an end to their at-large hopes. Then on Wednesday, teams like Cincinnati, USC, Indiana, West Virginia, California and Oklahoma State all lost as well to stay outside of the cut line. Meanwhile, teams like SMU and Texas are likely to stay in the field for now despite losing, but they find themselves much more susceptible to bid thieves as Champ Week moves forward.
Ultimately, the only teams to really help themselves were NC State (which was relatively safe to begin with), Auburn (which needed to win to get to two games over .500) and Oklahoma (which is somehow in the mix despite a nine-game losing streak earlier in the season). At this point, most bracketologists are actively rooting for bid stealers.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through March 11th, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and the bubble teams that are still playing in their respective conference tournaments.
| WASHINGTON, DC (EAST) | CHICAGO (MIDWEST) | |
| Greenville – March 19/21 | Buffalo – March 19/21 | |
| 1) Duke | 1) Michigan | |
| 16) Lehigh* / UMBC | 16) Queens* | |
| 8) Villanova |
8) Clemson | |
| 9) TCU | 9) Texas A&M | |
| Philadelphia – March 20/22 | Portland – March 19/21 | |
| 5) Arkansas |
5) St. John’s | |
| 12) South Florida | 12) High Point* |
|
| 4) Kansas | 4) Virginia | |
| 13) Northern Iowa* | 13) Sam Houston | |
| Greenville – March 19/21 | St. Louis – March 20/22 | |
| 6) Tennessee | 6) Wisconsin | |
| 11) Santa Clara | 11) Auburn / SMU | |
| 3) Purdue | 3) Iowa St. | |
| 14) Troy* | 14) Wright St.* | |
| Buffalo – March 19/21 | Philadelphia – March 20/22 | |
| 7) Georgia | 7) Miami (FL) | |
| 10) NC State | 10) Ohio St. | |
| 2) Michigan St. | 2) Connecticut | |
| 15) Siena* |
15) Furman* | |
| HOUSTON (SOUTH) | SAN JOSE (WEST) | |
| Tampa – March 20/22 | San Diego – March 20/22 | |
| 1) Florida | 1) Arizona | |
| 16) Florida A&M / Howard |
16) Long Island* | |
| 8) UCLA | 8) Utah St. | |
| 9) Saint Louis | 9) Iowa | |
| San Diego – March 20/22 | Tampa – March 20/22 | |
| 5) Vanderbilt | 5) North Carolina | |
| 12) Yale | 12) McNeese* | |
| 4) Texas Tech | 4) Alabama | |
| 13) Utah Valley | 13) Hofstra* | |
| Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | Portland – March 19/21 | |
| 6) Louisville | 6) BYU | |
| 11) Texas / VCU |
11) Miami (OH) | |
| 3) Nebraska | 3) Gonzaga* | |
| 14) North Dakota St.* | 14) UC Irvine | |
| Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | St. Louis – March 20/22 | |
| 7) Saint Mary’s | 7) Kentucky | |
| 10) Missouri | 10) UCF | |
| 2) Houston | 2) Illinois | |
| 15) Idaho* | 15) Tennessee St.* |
Last Four In:
VCU – At the time, it seemed like VCU’s loss at Saint Louis on February 20th effectively squashed the Rams’ at-large case, but the inability of fellow bubble teams to win games has given them new life. VCU closed the season by winning 13 of 14 games, including a critical road win at Dayton last Friday. Most of the team sheet metrics are in the low to mid-40s, but VCU is just 2-5 in Q1 contests, while a Q2 win on a neutral court against fellow bubbler Virginia Tech is proving to be important. A 9-5 road/neutral mark is solid and VCU has no losses outside of the top two quadrants. The Rams don’t open A-10 tournament play until Friday.
SMU – The Mustangs seemed like a near-lock just a couple weeks ago, but they dropped their final four games of the regular season to land squarely on the bubble. SMU won its first ACC tournament game against Syracuse but came up short against Louisville on Wednesday. They rank between 40th and 48th across all team-sheet metrics and own four Q1 victories, including home wins against Louisville and UNC. That said, the Mustangs are 1-8 in their nine toughest road games and 3-8 on the road overall. The injury status of B.J. Edwards may play a role here, but either way, it’s going to be a long few days for the Ponies.
Texas – After losing to Ole Miss in their first SEC tournament game, the Longhorns are now just 17-14 (their win in Maui over Chaminade doesn’t count). Texas is 1-9 in Q1A opportunities but 6-9 in Q1 overall. However, they are just 10-14 in non-Q4 games with a Q3 home loss to Mississippi State and while a poor non-Q4 record didn’t keep them out last year, it’s still worth noting. The predictive metrics are strong, but their WAB has fallen to 46th, leaving them at risk if we see many bid thieves.
Auburn – As I mentioned earlier, the Tigers were one of the only bubble teams to win, but even so, they are still just 17-15 heading into Thursday’s huge matchup with Tennessee. Only two teams have earned at-large bids when finishing just two games over .500, but with the quality of this year’s bubble, maybe their top-end wins are enough to overcome that. The Tigers have six total wins against teams in the field, so if they can knock off Tennessee, they would jump at least a couple teams on the seed list.
Bubble Teams Still in Action:
With bubble teams playing so badly, it makes the most sense here to focus on teams who can still help themselves in their conference tournaments.
New Mexico – The Lobos hurt their case by losing both games last week (home against Colorado State and at Utah State). They now sit at 2-6 in Q1 but are 8-7 in the top two quadrants, including wins at VCU and home against Santa Clara and SDSU, all of which help for bubble purposes. However, New Mexico has no wins against teams safely in the field to go with a pair of Q3 losses and a WAB sitting just inside the top 50. With San Jose State upsetting Boise State on Wednesday night, the Lobos can’t really help themselves in the MWC quarters, so they probably need to get to the final to have a legitimate shot.
San Diego State – Like New Mexico, SDSU needs a deep run the in MWC tournament. The Aztecs are 2-6 in Q1 and 7-9 against the top two quadrants with a Q3 home loss to Troy. They are outside the top 50 in WAB and have just two wins over teams in the at-large mix, both of which came at home. SDSU faces Colorado State in the quarterfinals and a win there could set up a bubble showdown with New Mexico in the semis.
Oklahoma – After losing nine straight early in SEC play, the Sooners have rebounded to win seven of their last nine games, including victories at Vanderbilt and Texas and home against Georgia, Auburn, and Missouri. They are just 3-9 in Q1 and 9-14 in the top two quadrants, which has contributed to result-based metrics that average out in the mid-50s. The predictive metrics are better, but OU will need to beat Texas A&M on Thursday to stay alive.
Seton Hall – The Pirates are a long shot, but they will face Creighton on Thursday in their first Big East tournament game. They are just 1-5 in Q1 with the lone victory coming in Maui against NC State, and while they do have six Q2 road wins, none of those have come against at-large contenders. Throw in a pair of Q3 losses and a team sheet with all but one metric outside of the top 50 and Seton Hall still has a lot of work to do. If they can knock off Creighton though, the Pirates would likely get another crack at St. John’s.
I plan to take another look in the coming days, but I have a hard time believing any of the other bubble teams who have already been eliminated would really have a shot.
Conference Breakdown:
SEC (11): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia
Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
West Coast (3): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU
Mountain West: Utah State
American: South Florida
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Queens*
Big Sky: Idaho*
Big South: High Point*
Big West: UC Irvine
Coastal: Hofstra*
Conference USA: Sam Houston
Horizon: Wright State*
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Siena*
MAC: Miami (OH)
MEAC: Howard
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Northeast: Long Island*
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State*
Patriot: Lehigh*
Southern: Furman*
Southland: McNeese*
SWAC: Florida A&M
Summit: North Dakota State*
Sun Belt: Troy*
WAC: Utah Valley
* Earned Automatic Bid
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology