Following a hiatus of more than one year, two of the hottest players on tour will finally renew their rivalry when Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev clash in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.
They have faced each other eight times overall — but none since 2024. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 6-2 and has defeated Medvedev on four consecutive occasions since last losing in the 2023 U.S. Open semifinals. They have squared off twice at the Indian Wells Masters, with the Spaniard cruising 6-3, 6-2 in 2023 and 7-6(5), 6-1 in 2024 — both times in the final.
The relative drought in their matchups can be attributed to Medvedev’s failure to advance to the business ends of tournaments, but he is now turning it all around in a big way. The 29-year-old’s closing stretch in 2025 included a title in Almaty and he has already lifted two trophies this season (Brisbane and Dubai). Medvedev is 17-3 for his 2026 campaign following Indian Wells defeats of Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, and Jack Draper — all in easy straight sets.
Only one man is ahead of Medvedev in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals. That man, of course, is Alcaraz. The world No. 1 is 16-0 this season with titles at the Australian Open and Doha ATP 500 to go along with wins this fortnight over Grigor Dimitrov, Arthur Rinderknech, Casper Ruud, and Cameron Norrie. Alcaraz’s level has been outstanding throughout — even when Rinderknech took a set in round three.
Although Medvedev has figured out how to play in the relatively slow hard-court conditions of Tennis Paradise, their previous meetings at this tournament — and really everywhere — prove that it’s a matchup that favors Alcaraz. It’s also worth noting that Medvedev has not defeated either Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner since the summer of 2024 at Wimbledon.
It’s safe to say that the Russian is back, but is he back to beating one of the two best players in the world on a court that isn’t entirely ideal for his game? Probably not.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2