Selection Sunday is upon us. But first there are a few more conference championships to be decided. This afternoon’s schedule is headlined by the Big Ten Tournament final between the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan Wolverines.
Here are my Purdue vs. Michigan predictions.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines odds
Money line: Purdue +220 / Michigan -275
Spread: Purdue +6.5 (-112) / Michigan -6.5 (-108)
Total: Over 151.5 (-105) / Under 151.5 (-120)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines pick: Purdue +6.5 (-112)
Purdue was the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and still has time to live up to the hype. The Boilermakers are heating up at the right time, with a 4-1 record in their last five games and victories in the Big Ten Tournament over Northwestern by 13 points, 11th-ranked Nebraska by 16, and UCLA by seven. Oscar Cluff is one rebound away from three straight double-doubles and he went for 17 points and 14 rebounds in the semifinals.
The Wolverines are also a great team, but they haven’t been crushing people. UM beat Wisconsin 68-65 at the buzzer on Saturday thanks to a three-pointer by Yaxel Lendeborg. Head coach Dusty May’s squad scraped past Ohio State 71-67 in the quarterfinals. It has won by more than 10 points just once in its last seven outings
Michigan is 0-4 against the spread in its last four overall and 1-6 ATS in its last seven.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines pick: Under 151.5 (-120)
If Purdue can play this game on its terms, it should lead to both the underdogs covering and the under cashing. They want to make this a slow, half-court grind. Head coach Matt Painter’s team is one of the slowest in the land, ranking 335th out of 365 Division I programs in pace of play (67.0 possessions per game).
Purdue is allowing only 70.2 points per game this season. It has held its three Big Ten Tournament opponents to 68, 58, and 66 points. It’s also worth noting that the Boilermakers are No. 34 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Michigan may be the best defensive squad in all of college basketball. It is No. 1 nationally in opponents’ field-goal percentage and has let only one of its last seven foes surpass the 70-point mark.
The under is 6-1 in the UM’s last seven overall and 2-0 in Wisconsin’s last two games.