Selection Sunday is here, and anticipation is high as we wait for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket to be revealed at 6 p.m. ET on CBS. The hours leading up to the show will be filled with anxiety for bubble teams, dread for some who are likely on the chopping block and excitement for those who are locks.
If you are just checking in on the college basketball scene ahead of March Madness, it’s been a captivating season. There were a record-setting number of elite nonconference matchups between high-caliber programs, an incredible crop of freshmen have rejuvenated the sport with fresh life and there is great parity across the game’s top conferences.
Sunday’s five conference tournament title games will determine the last pieces of the puzzle before action begins with the First Four on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. But we don’t need to know Sunday’s results to know who the locks are to reach the Big Dance.
Most teams have already finished off their final pitches to the selection committee and should have a good idea of where they stand entering the day.
Below are the teams we are ready to call locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Other tiers include the “almost there,” “on the bubble” and “longshot” categories
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
Of course, this exercise pertains to the race for at-large spots. Check out who has clinched an automatic bid here.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal
The only hesitation on proclaiming NC State a lock stems from how flimsy the resume is when you peel back the layers. The Wolfpack’s best road wins over Clemson and SMU depreciated in value, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with an asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. A tally of 11 Quad 1/2 victories is great, but there are zero victories against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET. By comparison, Auburn has four such victories, and Texas has three (including a head-to-head win over NC State). If NC State was “scrubbed” side-by-side against those teams in the committee room, it might go poorly.
Atlantic 10
Lock: Saint Louis
Bubble: VCU
Bid thief candidate: Dayton
The Atlantic 10 could be a three-bid league, which would be a best-case outcome for the conference and a nightmare scenario for non-A-10 bubble teams. The vision came one step closer to reality on Saturday when Saint Louis lost to Dayton in the semifinals and VCU beat Saint Joseph’s. Had the Billikens won the Atlantic 10 Tournament and had VCU lost to St. Joe’s, the A-10 would have been a one-bid league. But if Dayton beats VCU in the title game on Sunday, the Rams will still have a decent at-large case along with Saint Louis. In that scenario, the Flyers would be a bid thief capable of making the A-10 a three-bid league for the first time since 2018.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, UCF
The Big 12 Tournament proved inconsequential for the NCAA Tournament bubble. Longshot hopefuls like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincinnati all wilted early. UCF achieved lock status by knocking out the Bearcats before losing to Arizona in the quarterfinals. It would be a shocker if these eight teams don’t comprise the conference’s dancing contingent when the bracket is revealed.
Big East
Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Longshot: Seton Hall
Seton Hall’s at-large aspirations were bleak entering Friday. But they were extinguished in a 78-68 loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Though the Pirates have 21 wins, they have just one victory over a projected at-large team (NC State), and they will arrive at Selection Sunday well outside the top 50 in the all-important WAB. This was a great defensive team that merely lacked the offensive firepower to break through for needle-moving wins.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa
Longshot: Indiana
Because Indiana still averages around 40th nationally in predictive metrics, the Hoosiers are not being pronounced dead yet. But any case for IU would be flimsy since the Hoosiers are not a top-50 team in results-based metrics, which are closely tied to selection. There is some resemblance to last year’s Xavier team that barely snuck into the field, but even that comparison is a reach for an IU team that has dropped six of its last seven games. The bubble is bad, but it’s not bad enough for Indiana to be legitimately considered.
MAC
Lock: Miami (Ohio)
Bid thief: Akron
Akron cemented the MAC’s likely two-bid haul with a thrilling win over Toledo in the MAC Tournament title game on Saturday. Miami looks like a lock even after suffering its first loss of the season against UMass in the quarterfinals of the league tournament on Thursday. The RedHawks completed the regular season unbeaten and own a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) score of roughly 1.70, which puts them in the top 40 of that vital resume metric. The beauty of WAB is that it allows the committee to compare the achievements of teams that have played vastly different schedules, which is useful since Miami did not play a single Quad 1 game.
Mountain West
Lock: Utah State
Bubble: San Diego State
Longshot: New Mexico
There is a real chance that Utah State is the only Mountain West participant in the NCAA Tournament. That would be a sad moment for a conference that hasn’t been a one-bid league since 2017. But with at-large lock Utah State winning the league’s automatic bid, it appears more likely than not. San Diego State is among CBS Sports Bracketology’s First Four Out. It would be a surprise — though not an outright stunner — if the Aztecs hear their names called.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M
Almost there: Missouri
Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
Potential bid thief Ole Miss bowed out of the picture with a heartbreaking overtime loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday. It was the latest bit of intrigue from a bubbly week in Nashville. Oklahoma came agonizingly close to reaching “almost there” status on Friday by taking Arkansas down to the wire in the quarterfinals before losing 82-79. Auburn’s case is also a hot-button issue. The Tigers are just 17-16, but they rate better in selection metrics than some other at-large candidates.
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
The WCC appears destined to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament after Santa Clara crept from “almost there” to lock status on Thursday morning because of favorable results elsewhere on the bubble. Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament during its final year in the league, but Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara have clearly done enough to be at-large teams in a year where the bubble isn’t very good. There’s not even a question on the Gaels, but Santa Clara’s case was at least somewhat up for debate following its loss to the Zags in the WCC Tournament final. Ultimately, the Bulldogs will arrive at Selection Sunday as a top-40 team across the board in the metrics used by the selection committee.