Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will be squaring off for the 16th time in their careers when they battle for the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday afternoon.
The head-to-head series could not be any closer, as Sinner holds an 8-7 advantage. Of course, that doesn’t exactly tell the real story. The Italian once trailed 6-0 but has since won eight of their last nine encounters dating back to the fall of 2023 — which is when Sinner started to become the current version of himself. They have not faced each other since 2024, when they split a pair of five-setters at the Australian Open and Wimbledon to go along with four other victories for Sinner.
Now in 2026, it’s Medvedev who is trying to become the old version of himself. The Russian won the U.S. Open title in 2021 on his way to the world No. 1 ranking, but he plunged as low as 18th in the rankings this past September. Well, it’s safe to say that Medvedev is on his way back. The 29-year-old is 18-3 this season with titles in Brisbane and Dubai; how he finds himself in a third Indian Wells final thanks to straight-set victories over Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, Jack Draper, and Carlos Alcaraz.
Having twice finished runner-up to Alcaraz, Medvedev is bidding for his first triumph at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Sinner is doing the same. In fact, the second-ranked Italian is into the final for the first time following straight-set defeats of Dalibor Svrcina, Denis Shapovalov, Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien, and Alexander Zverev.
Medvedev figures to be Sinner’s toughest test of the fortnight — even tougher than what Fonseca brought to the table in a pair of tiebreak sets.
“If I manage to maintain the level I had throughout the tournament and maybe even raise it, I will have my chances,” Medvedev said.
The world No. 11 is not wrong. If he can beat Alcaraz, he can beat Sinner — there is no question about that. The question is if Sinner has to red line for two sets and get out of the heat before this match becomes a marathon. The high in Palm Springs is 97 degrees, but that’s far better than the consistent 100s forecast next week and the humidity will be next to nothing. Conditions shouldn’t be the deciding factor. It is true that Sinner has dealt with some heat-related problems in the past, but this is a guy who has won four Grand Slam titles. You don’t win four slams without being able to withstand some physical tribulations.
This should be a fun one, but it’s also another Sinner-Medvedev matchup that will likely go the way of the favorite.
Pick: Sinner in 3