- When: Sunday, March 15, not before 2 PM local time / 5 PM ET / 10 PM CET
- Where: Stadium 1, Indian Wells Tennis Garden
- Head-to-Head: Sinner leads 8-7 (won 8 of last 9)
- Both players seeking their first Indian Wells title
Not the final many of us would have thought, but still, a very interesting matchup between two players that seem to be back to their absolute best.
Daniil Medvedev shocked Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(3) on Saturday night, ending the Spaniard’s perfect 16-0 start to 2026 and denying fans the expected Alcaraz-Sinner showdown. Now the Russian gets his chance at redemption after losing the last two Indian Wells finals to Alcaraz, while Jannik Sinner also pursues his first title at this event.
Here’s what to expect from Sunday’s final along with our betting predictions for Sinner vs Medvedev.
Medvedev is back
Medvedev controlled the semi against Alcaraz with aggressive shotmaking and showed the tennis with which he once reached World No. 1, winning 74 percent of his second-serve points. He broke early in the first set and never let Alcaraz find his rhythm, closing out the opener 6-3 in just over 30 minutes.
The second set was closer. Alcaraz broke to lead 3-1, but Medvedev broke back immediately and saved two set points at 4-5 before dominating the tiebreak 7-3. It was Medvedev’s first win over Alcaraz since the US Open in 2023, having lost their last four meetings in a row.
See the highlights below:
More significantly, Medvedev has now won 18 sets in a row.
After the match, even Alcaraz admitted he’d never seen Medvedev play like this. The Russian was aggressive, taking the ball early, hitting flat and hard from the baseline. Will it be enough also against Sinner?
Sinner vs. Medvedev
The head-to-head tells a unique story. Medvedev won the first six meetings between these two, completely dominating the young Italian early in their rivalry. Then it changed of course.
Sinner leads Medvedev 8-7 in their series, including victories in eight of their past nine matches. They haven’t played since the 2024 ATP Finals, when Sinner won 6-3, 6-4.
The Italian will look to replicate what has worked in their recent meetings – taking the ball early, hitting flat and deep, and not giving Medvedev time to set up his defense. Sinner’s backhand is the key weapon here; it’s faster and more penetrating than Medvedev’s, and if he can consistently hit through the Russian from that wing, he’ll control the court position.
Sinner also needs to stay aggressive on return. Medvedev’s serve has been excellent this week, but Sinner has shown the ability to take returns early and turn defense into offense immediately. He can’t let Medvedev establish baseline rallies on his terms.
Medvedev needs to serve at the level he showed against Alcaraz, converting both break points he created and saving four of the five break points he faced. His first serve percentage will be crucial today.
Betting Predictions
It will be another hot day in the desert for the final, but I don’t think that will affect the outcome this time. Looking at the odds, Sinner is clear favorite at odds 1.22 and he’s the most likely to clinch the title.
Medvedev’s win over Alcaraz was exceptional, one of his best performances in years. But beating Alcaraz and then backing it up against Sinner less than 24 hours later is clearly a challenge.
Sinner to win the match but would not be surprised if Medvedev covers the hcp of +4.5 games at odds 1.72.
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