While upsets happen all the time in the NCAA Tournament, there are usually only a handful of teams that can win the tournament. Here is a guide to picking a 2026 NCAA Tournament Champion!
Parameters
These teams are efficient on both ends of the floor and are usually battle-tested as well. The last team to win it all and not be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (according to kenpom.com) was UConn in 2014. That UConn team is the only team since 2002 not to meet those parameters and still win the championship.
Other teams could follow 2014 UConn’s steps and win it all, but they would be a statistical outlier.
Note: Teams can start outside of these parameters, but play so efficiently in the tournament that they finish there.
Teams Currently Fitting the Criteria (Pick With Less Risk)
A guide to picking a 2025 NCAA Tournament Champion
Duke Blue Devils- Duke is the top-rated team in KenPom for the season. They rank fourth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are the number one overall seed, but injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba have given some doubts. Cameron Boozer was able to carry the team to an ACC Tournament Championship without them. ‘
Arizona Wildcats-
The Wildcats are the second-highest team on KenPom, coming in at fifth on offense and third on defense. Arizona doesn’t shoot many three-pointers, but are able to bully teams inside. The Wildcats have plenty of experience with a mix of talented freshmen who could help them cut down the nets.
Michigan Wolverines- The third-rated team in KenPom are the Michigan Wolverines. They are eighth in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency. The Wolverines have a talented frontcourt that they play through, but guards turning over the ball could be detrimental. Backup point guard LJ Cason is out for the season, so depth could also play a factor.
Florida Gators- Florida ranks fourth overall in KenPom, at ninth in offense and sixth in defense. The Gators have a good frontcourt and their guards have come along as the season has gone on. Back to back national championships would be tough to accomplish, but they are worthy of consideration.
Houston Cougars- The Cougars rank fifth in KenPom overall. They are 14th in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency. Houston has had a tough time scoring inside, but they have great guard play. Between Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, the Cougars have plenty of options on the perimeter.
Iowa State Cyclones- The sixth-ranked team in KenPom are the Iowa State Cyclones. They are 21st in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency. While the offense can stall at times, Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson are a great trio.
Michigan State Spartans- Michigan State ranks ninth in KenPom overall. They are 24th in offense and 13th in defense. The Spartans have a good point guard in Jeremy Fears, along with a deep frontcourt. Their guard play around Fears and their shooting could hold them back, though. They are a safe pick, but their ceiling may be limited compared to other teams.
Louisville Cardinals- Louisville is 19th in KenPom (19th in offense and 25 in defense). The Cardinals are a no. 6 seed, so they fit the criteria, but probably shouldn’t be picked to win it all. Their star point guard, Mikel Brown Jr. has been injured as well, so a deep run would be a surprise.
Teams Who Can Play Their Way Into the Criteria (Pick With More Risk)
*Teams fall outside of the parameters, but could play their way into them with efficient play in the NCAA Tournament.
Illinois Fighting Illini-
Illinois has the second-most-efficient offense in the country, but ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. They have dealt with injuries this season, but are healthy at the right time. With freshman Keaton Wagler’s emergence, their play could continue to improve and push them into the top 25 in both categories.
Purdue Boilermakers-
The Boilermakers have a no. 2 seed and have the most efficient offense in the country. Their defense has lagged behind, as they rank 36th. Braden Smith operates an efficient offense, but a lack of team athleticism hurts their defense.
Gonzaga Bulld0gs-
While Gonzaga’s defense ranks ninth, their offense is 29th. This is not one of Gonzaga’s better teams, especially with Braden Huff injured. Graham Ike will have to carry the team on his back to help the Bulldogs make a run.
UConn Huskies- UConn is 11th in defensive efficiency, but ranks 30th on offense. The Huskies have a no. 2 seed, but have had consistency issues on offense. If Silas Demary Jr. plays well, they could move up into the top 25 on offense.
Vanderbilt Commodores- Vanderbilt has a great offense, ranking seventh in efficiency, but their defense ranks 31st. They have excellent guard play between Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, but their frontcourt has length and scoring issues.
Virginia Cavaliers- Virginia is a completely different team under Ryan Odom. They are 16th in defensive efficiency, but 27th on the offensive end of the floor. The Cavaliers have had a good season, but will need to improve the offense just a tad to fit the criteria.
Arkansas Razorbacks-
The Razorbacks have the sixth-most efficient offense in the country, but the 47th-ranked defense. The defense needs to take a huge jump in the tournament to help them fit the criteria, but Baylor made a similar jump in 2021 when they won the title. Darius Acuff Jr. is a talented freshman point guard who can carry his team, but there is still some risk with picking Arkansas.
Tennessee Volunteers- Tennessee is the 15th-most efficient defense, while the offense is 37th in the country. That is right up Rick Barnes’s alley. They are a No. 6 seed, so likely shouldn’t be picked to win it all anyway, but theoretically they could play their way into the criteria.
St. John’s Red Storm-
Rick Pitino’s squad is 44th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. It is unlikely they make a jump into the top 25 on offense, given their inconsistent guard play.
Texas Tech Red Raiders-
Texas Tech ranks 12th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency this season. They likely shouldn’t be picked to win it all after star forward JT Toppin was lost for the season with an injury.
Favorites to Avoid (Teams are high seeds, but don’t fit the criteria)
Nebraska Cornhuskers-
Nebraska has had a great season, but they rank 55th in offensive efficiency. They should win their first tournament game in history, but a long run is unlikely.
Alabama Crimson Tide- Alabama has an efficient offense (ranked third) as usual, but the defense is lagging behind (ranked 67th). The Crimson Tide shoot a lot of threes, but the defense may not support a dry spell to win the whole thing.
Kansas Jayhawks- Kansas ranks 57th in offensive efficiency this season, which puts them out of range to fit the criteria. There is an argument to be made that with Darryn Peterson healthy, their numbers would be better, but even then it would still take a lot for them to win it all.
Wisconsin Badgers-
Wisconsin has the 51st-ranked defensive efficiency. While their guard play is great offensively, the defense will be too much of an issue.
Go to our college basketball page
for more news and updates like A Guide to Picking a 2026 NCAA Tournament Champion!
You can like The Game Haus on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for more sports and esports articles from great TGH writers!