Start at the end, work backward and get familiar with KenPom.
That’s my best advice for filling out a men’s NCAA Tournament bracket. Begin by identifying your national champion.
Ken Pomeroy — the human behind the advanced statistical website, KenPom.com — runs a database that goes back to 1997, and 26 of the last 28 national champions have finished in the top 20 of adjusted offense and defense. That doesn’t mean a team started in the top 20, but to finish there, you must be close once the tourney starts.
This season, five teams currently meet the criteria — Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida and Houston. Pick the one you like best, or maybe the one that you’re convinced has the easier road and write that team in as national champ.
Then fill out the Final Four.
Over the last two years, I’ve correctly predicted seven of the eight Final Four teams and nailed the national champion. (You can view my bracket for this year here.) Some of that is luck, but it’s also a realization that college basketball has changed.
There is a wider gap than between high-major schools — the ones from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC and Big East — and mid-majors. That’s because there has been a funnel of talent toward the top. Last year, the Final Four was chalk, with all four No. 1 seeds making it. This year, the top 10 is full of teams that are tournament staples, like the five above or Purdue and Michigan State. You can consider a non-traditional power for the Final Four, but it better be from one of the power conferences.
Boring? Yes. But sometimes boring wins your bracket pool when everyone else tries to get too creative with their picks.
How to identify first-round upsets
The first round is the spot to take some stabs at some upsets, but be wary of taking those teams too far. In the last two years, only one mid-major has escaped the first weekend, and that was San Diego State in 2024, a No. 5 seed and a program with a long tradition of winning.
When looking for underdogs to pick in the first round, consider program success. Over the last two years, the mid-majors that have advanced out of the Round of 64 are mostly teams with some history (or recent history) of success: Saint Mary’s, New Mexico, Drake, Yale and Grand Canyon. All had been to the tournament very recently before the year they pulled an upset.
It’s also smart to study any coaching carousel lists to look for the hottest candidates. Usually, the coaches getting attention for bigger jobs have built better-than-average teams.
Be careful to wipe out a team that you think is really strong, but the spots to look for upsets are on the 12-5 and 11-6 lines. For the No. 11 seeds, two of those teams will have played their way into the bracket in the play-in round, the First Four. Since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011, at least one play-in No. 11 seed has advanced to the round of 32 in every tourney except for 2019 and 2025, so picking one of the First Four teams is not a bad idea.
Also worth noting, only two double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last two years, and both were high-major teams — No. 11 NC State in 2024 and No. 10 Arkansas in 2025. It’s never been more difficult for the traditional Cinderella to break through, but a power-conference team with a double-digit seed might have the talent to surprise.
The stats that matter most
When looking for upsets, you can look for trends. For example, the three worst teams Kansas has lost to this season have all started a 7-footer. Kansas is undefeated when limiting its opponent to an offensive rebounding rate of 30 percent or less, but just 8-9 when its opponent tops that mark. So if you’re looking for a team to upset KU? Big and strong on the offensive glass would be a good recipe.
But in terms of picking teams to go far, stick to studying those adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Efficiency and talent win in March and April.
One more tip: Study an NBA mock draft ahead of picking your bracket. Your national champ should have at least one, and preferably a couple of players, listed as potential draft picks.
Stylistically, there’s not one way to play that’s better than another. Be careful overthinking it. Just remember to start at the end. Most brackets are not won in the first weekend; they’re won in the last.