The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Indiana Pacers this week, a result that briefly reignited a debate that has followed the franchise for much of the 2025-26 season.
Just a few weeks ago, some Bucks fans openly wondered whether Giannis Antetokounmpo should simply sit out the rest of the campaign so Milwaukee could improve its draft position in what many analysts believe is a loaded 2026 draft class.
Others argued the opposite — that the two-time MVP should return and try to drag the Bucks back toward playoff contention.
But the truth about Milwaukee’s season may be far simpler.
The Bucks do not need to tank.
They are already bad enough.
Milwaukee Bucks struggling badly even with Giannis on the court
Milwaukee’s overall record sits at 28-39, leaving them buried in the Eastern Conference standings.
The deeper analytics suggest that record is not misleading.
Across the season the Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in several key efficiency metrics:
| Metric | Rating | NBA Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Net Rating | -5.0 | 25th |
| Offensive Rating | 113.2 | 25th |
| Defensive Rating | 118.2 | 24th |
| Pace | 97.8 | 23rd |
Those numbers place Milwaukee firmly in the league’s bottom tier.
Even more telling is how little the team improves when Antetokounmpo plays.
With Giannis on the floor this season, the Bucks still own a negative net rating of roughly –1.7, meaning opponents continue to outscore them across possessions even when their best player is active.
When Giannis sits, that number drops dramatically to –8.6.
In other words, Antetokounmpo still lifts the team — but not nearly enough to make Milwaukee good.
Giannis still producing elite numbers for Milwaukee
None of this reflects poorly on Antetokounmpo himself.
The superstar forward is once again delivering elite production:
- 27.6 points per game
- 9.8 rebounds
- 5.4 assists
- 62.4% shooting from the field
Since returning from a calf injury in early March, Giannis has continued to produce at a high level, including a 31-point, 14-rebound, 8-assist performance in Milwaukee’s win over Indiana.
The issue is everything happening around him.
The Bucks currently rank 24th in defense, 25th in offense, and have been outscored by an average of five points per 100 possessions this season.
That profile is far more typical of a lottery team than a playoff contender.
Bobby Portis summed up the Bucks’ reality perfectly
If there is anyone inside Milwaukee’s locker room willing to speak honestly about the team’s situation, it is Bobby Portis.
Earlier this season, the veteran forward delivered one of the most blunt assessments of the Bucks’ campaign when discussing a brief winning stretch.
Portis dismissed the run as “fool’s gold.”
He pointed out that many of those victories came against weaker opponents rather than teams competing for playoff positioning.
“Playing better teams,” Portis said, is a completely different challenge than beating opponents that are “not jockeying for position.”
His message was clear.
Milwaukee’s occasional wins have not changed the bigger picture.
The Bucks are analytically closer to a lottery team than a contender
The advanced metrics back up Portis’ comments.
Despite ranking third in the NBA in effective field-goal percentage, Milwaukee still owns one of the league’s worst overall offensive ratings.
The reason lies in the details.
The Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in several critical areas:
- 29th in offensive rebound percentage
- 28th in free-throw rate
- bottom-third in pace and transition scoring
Defensively, the problems are even more severe.
Milwaukee’s 118.2 defensive rating places them among the worst defensive teams in the NBA, a dramatic fall for a franchise that once built its identity on defense during its championship run.
Even when Giannis is playing at an MVP level, those structural weaknesses remain.
The real problem for Milwaukee may be the coaching
While roster depth is clearly part of the issue, much of Milwaukee’s collapse this season has also been tied to criticism of head coach Doc Rivers.
The Bucks’ defensive identity in particular has completely unraveled.
Milwaukee currently ranks around 26th in defensive rating, allowing roughly 118 points per 100 possessions, a dramatic fall for a franchise that once built its championship run on elite defense.
Analytically, the breakdowns are easy to see.
Opponents have consistently targeted the Bucks in pick-and-roll situations, where Milwaukee has been one of the league’s worst teams defending the roll man. Opposing bigs have converted nearly 65% of scoring chances as the roll man, the worst rate in the NBA.
Even more concerning is the lack of stability within the system.
Rivers admitted earlier this season that the Bucks had already changed their defensive scheme five different times, creating confusion in rotations and leaving players uncertain about assignments.
Analysts have also questioned the overall structure of Milwaukee’s offense.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic described the Bucks’ attack this season as “abysmal”, arguing there has been “no rhyme or reason” to their offensive identity outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo creating offense on his own.
The numbers support that claim.
Despite ranking third in the NBA in effective field-goal percentage, Milwaukee still sits 25th in offensive rating, largely because the team struggles in nearly every other offensive category.
The Bucks rank:
- 29th in offensive rebound percentage
- 28th in free-throw rate
- bottom-third in pace and transition scoring
Those structural problems have made the offense heavily dependent on Antetokounmpo carrying possessions himself.
Inside the locker room, frustration has also surfaced.
Veteran forward Bobby Portis recently described an earlier winning stretch as “fool’s gold,” noting that many of those wins came against weaker teams rather than legitimate contenders.
His comment captured the reality surrounding Milwaukee’s season.
The Bucks might occasionally beat struggling opponents, but against quality teams the flaws quickly become obvious.
That is why the debate about shutting Giannis down earlier in the season may have missed the bigger picture.
Milwaukee does not need to tank.
The roster issues, defensive collapse and coaching instability have already produced the same result.