Preseason Prep – March 17, 2026
Drake Baldwin (C-ATL) should see plenty of playing time in 2025 and will likely continue to occupy the DH even when Sean Murphy starts behind the plate. Why? Because the lefty hitter actually did pretty well against LHP in 2026. In 95 PA against southpaws, Baldwin hit .299 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, and 13 R while drawing walks at a 7.5% clip and fanning just 16% of the time. For comparison, he batted .267 with 15 HR, 63 RBI, and 43 R in 318 PA against RHP, with a 9% walk rate and 15% strikeout rate. 95 PA is admittedly a small sample size, but that’s a good sign as young lefty swingers in particular tend to struggle against southpaws. That bodes well for Baldwin to log 500+ PA in 2026, in which he should make a case for being a top-5 backstop for fantasy when it’s all said and done. We have him projected for .266 and 24 HR this in 2026.
Triston Casas (1B-BOS) is looking at a late start to the regular season after he recently conceded that he won’t play in any Grapefruit League contests. The 26 year-old is working his way back from a ruptured patellar tendon suffered last May. That was part of what compelled the Sox to acquire Willson Contreras, and so it could be a battle for Casas to earn at-bats at 1B and DH once he’s healthy. It was a small sample size but Casas also wasn’t good before going on the shelf last season as he hit just .182 with 3 HR and 11 RBI over 112 PA. During that span, his swinging-strike rate (14%) was a career high while his in-zone contact rate (78%) wasn’t good and his average exit velo was down to 87.5 mph (90 mph career). We have him down for .232 with 18 HR in just 436 AB.
Colt Emerson (2B-SEA) is still in the running to make the big-league roster out of camp, and that’s interesting after he batted .285 with 16 HR, 78 RBI, 82 R, and 14 SB across 600 PA spanning High-A to Triple-A in 2025. He did register the bulk of his PA in High-A (412) before advancing, with his strikeout rate climbing at each stop, from 16.5% to 19.5% to 22%. But he showed patience at each level (12% overall) while driving the ball often (22.5% liner rate). During his brief stop in Triple-A (27 PA), Emerson encouragingly registered a 92.5% in-zone contact rate, which attests to his plus hit tool. Overall, that’s really his only standout tool as scouts indicate he has roughly average power and average speed. Ultimately, there’s 20-20 potential here while he should also hit for a solid average.
JJ Wetherholt (2B/SS-STL) seems likely to make the Cardinals Opening Day roster and serve as the club’s starting 2B. The 23 year-old has enjoyed a strong spring training, and that comes on the heels of a quality 2025 in which he hit .306 with 17 HR, 59 RBI, 82 R, and 23 SB over 496 PA split between Double-A and Triple-A. Wetherholt showed strong contact ability and command over the plate as he posted an identical 14.5% strikeout and walk rate, registering a healthy 81% contact rate in Triple-A while rarely chasing (22%) and not swinging and missing a lot (10%). He also made plenty of loud contact during his 221-PA stint in Triple-A, logging a 48% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.5 mph while an average launch angle of 12.3 bodes well for a solid combination of average and pop. We are anticipating a .267 average, 12 HR, and 11 SB across 465 AB.
CJ Abrams (SS-WSH) recorded a career-high .257 average to go with 19 HR, 60 RBI, 92 R, and 31 SB in 2025, with a career-best 107 wR+. Abrams has been fairly consistent in his first three full MLB seasons, hitting 18-20 HR per season while hitting between .245 and .257 and swiping 47, 31, and 31 bags in those seasons. He’s struck out between 19 and 21.5% of the time each year while drawing few walks (5-6.5%). His 2025 contact rates (77.5% overall and 85.5% in zone) were right about his career averages while his Statcast metrics represented a slight improvement from his career averages with a 39% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 88.5 mph; those are all below league-average figures. Based on his track record and underlying metrics we project a .254 average, 23 HR, and 31 SB in 2026.
Brent Rooker (OF-ATH) produced his third straight 30-HR campaign in 2025 as he hit .262 with 30 HR, 89 RBI, and 92 R across 699 PA while chipping in 6 SB. While the campaign didn’t measure up to his excellent 2024 (.293 average, 39 HR, 112 RBI, 82 R, and 11 SB over 614 PA), it was still a productive campaign (122 wRC+) and he did show improvement in some key areas in his age-30 season. In particular, Rooker registered a career-low 22% strikeout rate (28% career) while elevating his overall (71.5%) and in-zone (83%) contact rates; his swinging-strike rate was 14%, lower than the 16% he posted in 2023-2024. Rooker’s Statcast metrics – while still healthy – did slip a bit from the past two seasons as he logged a 44.5% hard-hit rate, 13.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. All that said, we are expecting him to hit about .254 with 32 dingers.
Kerry Carpenter (OF-DET) was productive in almost a strict platoon role in 2025 as he logged a .252 average to go with a career-high 26 HR, 62 RBI, and 66 R over a career-high 464 PA. In his age-27 campaign the lefty swinger compiled a 115 wRC+ while recording a career-low 23% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Carpenter’s 76% overall and 85% in-zone contact rates marked a return to what they were in 2023 after both dipped in 2024 while his Statcast metrics remained healthy. In fact, his 46% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.5 mph were career bests while his 12.5% barrel rate was the second best of his career. An average launch angle of 20.9 did skew his batted balls more toward flyballs (45.5%) – including a career-high 13% infield flyball rate – but it also generated a career-best 21.5% liner rate. Especially since fantasy owners cannot expect Tigers management to play Carpenter against LHP – he wasn’t awful against southpaws as he hit .217 with 3 HR in just 60 PA against them a year ago – we project about .259 with 25 HR in 2026.
Justin Crawford (OF-PHI) is an interesting prospect for fantasy in 2026 and could very well make the Phillies roster out of camp. He has held his own during spring training, batting .250 with 2 RBI, 7 R, and 2 SB while fanning at an 18.5% clip across 38 PA entering Monday’s action. The 22 year-old’s hit tool grades as roughly average and he’s still growing into his plus potential raw power, but his plus-plus speed has already paid dividends. In 2025, Crawford batted .334 with 7 HR, 47 RBI, 88 R, and 46 SB across 506 PA at the Triple-A level. There, he fanned at an 18% clip while drawing plenty of walks (11.5%). He made a lot of contact (85% overall and 92% in zone) while making some loud contact, with Statcast showing a 40.5% hard-hit rate and average exit velo of 90 mph. An average launch angle of 2.6 does, however, hint at what is partly, at least, suppressing his power output to date, as he’s liner (23% in 2025) and grounder (59.5%) oriented, which leaves little for flyballs (17.55). We at Fantistics project a .258 average with 7 HR and 27 RBI across 495 PA in 2026.
Nick Lodolo (SP-CIN) finally put together a full(ish) season in the majors and was good, as he logged a 3.33 ERA, 9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 3.66 xFIPacross 156.2 IP in 2025. In his age-27 campaign, the southpaw registered a quality 12.5% swinging-strike rate while the opposition’s overall contact rate was slightly below average at 75% and their in-zone contact rate was right around average at 85.5%. Meanwhile, their Statcast metrics were pretty middling as well with an average exit velocity of 89 mph, 8% barrel rate, and 40.5% hard-hit rate. Overall, Lodolo was solidly effective, with his plus control a key to his success. So long as he can continue his run of good health, expect more mid-rotation value out of Lodolo in 2026. At Fantistics, we expect about a 3.93 ERA and 8.6 K/9 over 172 IP this season.
Grayson Rodriguez (SP-LAA) should not be forgotten as he prepares to begin his age-26 campaign with a new team, the Angels. For what it’s worth, it’s been a bumpy ride for him in spring training as he owns a 4.97 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 7.1 BB/9, and 5.68 xFIP over 12.2 IP. The hard-throwing righty did not appear in the majors in 2025 as he dealt with elbow and lat injuries, but he has the potential to make an impact in fantasy in 2026 given good health. Rodriguez, after all, took a big step forward in 2024 with the Orioles, logging a 3.86 ERA, 10 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 3.57 xFIP across 116.2 IP, which was better across the board compared to 2023 (4.35 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.78 xFIP). He missed plenty of bats in 2024 (13.5%) while the opposition’s overall (73%) and in-zone (83.5%) contact rates came in below league average. Rodriguez also yielded less loud contact, with Statcast showing a 39.5% hard-hit rate (down from 43.5%) and average exit velocity of 89 mph (down from 90). We’re optimistic about Rodriguez’s 2026 campaign as we are expecting about a 3.71 ERA and 9.6 K/9 over 151 IP out of him.
Shane Baz (SP-BAL) joins the Orioles for his age-27 campaign after a few seasons of ups and downs with the Rays. His 2025 campaign, his first full MLB season, was a mixed bag as Baz finished with a 4.87 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 4.37 xFIP across 166.1 IP. His swinging-strike rate was solid at 11.5% while the opposition’s 76% overall and 84.5% in-zone contact rates were below average while opposing hitters managed a 39.5% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89 mph against him. Barring a significant spike in whiffs, improving his subpar control will likely be a key to taking a step forward, and the Orioles’ work with Trevor Rogers last season gives hope that they can work some magic with Baz. At Fantistics, we project about a 3.92 ERA and 10 K/9 from Baz this season.
Cody Ponce (SP-TOR) is an intriguing name for 2026 as he returns from Asia following a run in the NPB (2022-2024) and a very successful stint in the KBO in 2025. At the latter stop, he compiled a 1.89 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, and 2.15 xFIP across 180.2 IP in his age-31 campaign. While one certainly can’t expect that kind of success to translate to the MLB, it was encouraging to see Ponce display increased velocity en route to logging an excellent 16.5% swinging-strike rate while limiting the free passes. So far in spring training, he has averaged about 96 mph with his fastball after that came in at 93 mph when he was last in the majors in 2020-2021 while complementing that pitch (44% usage) with 90-mph cutter (25.5%), 84-mph slider (12%), 89-mph change (3.5%), and 83-mph curve (5%). We are not optimistic at Fantistics, projecting a 4.64 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 2026.
Bubba Chandler (SP-PIT) endured a rough start to spring training, but was sharp against Atlanta on Thursday as he allowed 1 run on a hit and a walk while fanning 8 over 5 IP. Expectations are certainly high for the 23 year-old righty as he embarks upon his first full MLB campaign, especially after he was productive in his first taste of big-league action a year ago (31.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and 3.20 xFIP over 4 starts and 3 relief appearances). Before he got the call to the majors, the results in Triple-A were underwhelming as he logged a 4.05 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 4.59 xFIP over 100 IP. Encouragingly, though, Chandler used his high-octane heater (99 mph average velocity) and solid battery of secondaries headlined by a plus-plus potential 91-mph change to miss bats at a 13.5% clip and limit the opposition’s overall (73%) and in-zone (80% contact rates. There are certainly some concerns about his control and command, but the pure stuff is tantalizing. We expect about a 3.47 ERA and 9.2 K/9 out of Chandler in 2026.
Hunter Greene (SP-CIN) will be out until midseason or so after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his right (throwing) elbow this past week. The 26 year-old righty made just 19 starts in the majors last season because of a nagging groin issue, but he was stellar when on the mound, putting together a 2.76 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 3.27 xFIP across 19 starts. While the strikeout ability is well established, the plus control was new as Greene never posted a BB/9 south of 4 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Even as he honed his control, Greene missed more bats than ever before, with a career-high 15% swinging-strike rate, while the opposition posted just a 71% overall and 80% in-zone contact rate against him. There was, however, some loud contact in there as opposing hitters mustered a 45% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph against him, with an average launch angle of 20.2 producing lots of flyballs (48%). Our projections for Green in 2026 were optimistic entering the season (3.29 ERA and 10.7 K/9), but expectations will have to be tempered a bit as it’s unclear how he will look when he returns in a few months.
Zac Gallen (SP-ARI) has especially worked on honing his sinker and changeup during spring training as he looks to rebound from an underwhelming 2025 season. In his age-29 campaign, the righty compiled a 4.83 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 4.12 xFIP over 192 IP. To be sure, a career-low 67.5% strand rate and 14.5% HR/FB inflated his ERA a bit, but it’s concerning that Gallen’s BB/9 remained north of 3 after it came in well below that mark in both 2022 and 2023. Meanwhile, his 9.5% swinging-strike rate was his lowest since 2021 while the opposition’s 91% in-zone contact rate was a career high. And they were productive with that contact as they posted a 43% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90 mph, all of which rank among the highest of Gallen’s career. We are optimistic for something of a rebound in 2026 as we project a 4.00 ERA and 8 K/9.