Unlike most top teams, Red Bull persisted with last season’s development into the final weeks of the campaign.
Given the challenges presented by the new regulations (mainly on the power unit side) 2025 was seen as Red Bull’s most realistic chance for a Championship in the foreseeable future.
Ahead of this new generation of engines, the Milton Keynes outfit were never seen as favourites to challenge Mercedes. With Ferrari emerging as the only early threat to the Silver Arrows, this consensus has been validated.
Indeed, when Toto Wolff suggested in Bahrain testing that Red Bull’s engine was gaining one second per lap, his comments were seen as typical pre-season mind games.
After a reasonable first round in Australia, Max Verstappen’s team were given a harsh reality check in Shanghai. The Dutchman says this initial difficulty is not surprising, and expressed little confidence in a change of fortunes.
Max Verstappen gives blunt Red Bull assessment
On paper, Red Bull’s first season as an engine manufacturer was always going to be difficult. Team principal Laurent Mekies made this abundantly clear during the team’s 2026 pre-season launch.
Mekies warned that his personnel would have to overcome a series of “sleepless nights and headaches” in the first months of the season.
To some extent, this warning was seen as slightly exaggerated management of expectations after the Australian GP. Red Bull’s performance, especially on the engine side, went well above expectations.
The paddock consensus was that the Austrian team was comfortably among the top four – with a platform solid enough to potentially close the gap to Mercedes.
Unfortunately for Red Bull, last weekend in China suggests they are in a far worse position. Verstappen’s poor start and later retirement (just one week after Hadjar’s DNF in Melbourne) suggests reliability is a significant issue for the RB22.
Of greater concern is that, reliability aside, the team are lacking in performance. Verstappen gave his verdict post-race in Shanghai:
“Well, you guys don’t know – I know,” he told the media. “I never saw myself even close to Mercedes or Ferrari.
“But this weekend has been particularly bad… For me, it’s not a surprise that we are not close to Mercedes or Ferrari or McLaren.
“I hope that after Japan, of course, we have a few extra weeks to put a bit more performance on the car. But at the same time, others also put more performance, right?”
The road ahead
For the reasons outlined above, 2026 was always seen as a potentially problematic year for Red Bull. Fighting for the Championship in year one as a manufacturer team was always an extremely unrealistic scenario.
In this sense, the team’s current position in the pecking order is not necessarily a massive shock – in context. Still, this will not soften the blow for a team who have been regular front-runners over the last two decades.
Even before the season began, Max Verstappen’s Red Bull future was in doubt. Considering the RB22 is performing so far, speculation is likely to intensify over the coming months.
The 4-time Champion’s contract negotiations with Mercedes last summer were well-documented – and only concluded when it became clear Verstappen couldn’t activate his exit clause and leave Red Bull prematurely.
For a variety of reasons, joining the Silver Arrows will be far more difficult moving forward. Moreover, the Dutchman’s opposition to the 2026 regulations has been made abundantly clear – and seem unlikely to go away.
This puts Red Bull in a very difficult situation, and raises the pressure for the team to find solutions to improve the RB22.