The second leg of the Sunshine Double has arrived, as the Miami Open follows the recently completed BNP Paribas Open. Indian Wells offered a mixed bag of expected results and surprises. Jannik Sinner lifted the trophy, but it did not come against Carlos Alcaraz in the final. Alcaraz succumbed to Daniil Medvedev in the semis, as the top-ranked Spaniard suffered his first loss in 2026.
Alcaraz is looking to bounce back and capture his first Miami title since 2022, while Sinner has played in three Miami finals and also seeks his second triumph. Although Novak Djokovic is out, challengers include Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, and Taylor Fritz.
Here is a breakdown of the bracket and my predictions.
Miami Open
Where: Miami, Florida
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $9,415,725
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Jakub Mensik
Draw analysis: The draw is not a good one for Alcaraz, whose opening match is likely to come against Joao Fonseca. That highly anticipated showdown will become a reality if Fonseca beats Fabian Marozsan in round one. Alcaraz’s possible path to the final also includes Delray Beach champion Sebastian Korda in round three, Fritz in the quarterfinals, and either Alex de Minaur, Alexander Bublik, or Tommy Paul in the semis.
With No. 4 seed Lorenzo Musetti trying to regain momentum on the heels of his Australian Open leg injury, the semifinal spot from his section is entirely up for grabs. De Minaur, Bublik, and Paul are in the mix along with Acapulco champ Flavio Cobolli and Doha runner-up Arthur Fils.
Medvedev, who fell to Sinner 7-6(6), 7-6(4) in the Indian Wells final on Sunday, has a favorable path through the bracket. He will avoid the second-ranked Italian at least until the semifinals and Alcaraz until the final. The bottom half is also home to Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, and defending champion Jakub Mensik.
Among the first-round matchups to watch in Miami are Fonseca vs. Marozan, Ethan Quinn vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, Grigor Dimitrov vs. Raphael Collignon, and Gabriel Diallo vs. Yibing Wu.
Hot: Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Learner Tien, Luciano Darderi, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Ethan Quinn, Mariano Navone, Sebastian Baez
Cold: Casper Ruud, Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Matteo Arnaldi, Alexei Popyrin, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, James Duckworth, Hubert Hurkacz, Zizou Bergs, Zhizhen Zhang, Jan-Lennard Struff, Valentin Royer, Arthur Cazaux
Quarterfinal predictions: Taylor Fritz over Carlos Alcaraz, Tommy Paul over Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev over Alexander Zverev, and Jannik Sinner over Jakub Mensik
Semifinals: Fritz over Paul and Sinner over Medvedev
Final: Sinner over Fritz